Jim Simons Trashes Trend Following
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
Its like when Soros says value investing doesn't work. And then you see Buffet did very well with it. Simons says trendfollowing is garbage, then I see David Harding did very well with it.
This kind of non-sense doesn't only happen in finance. Keith Richards from the Rolling Stones said Heavy Metal is garbage. David Bowie said pop music was so bad it needed to be outlawed. You get the picture?
Individual trader is totally different from Buffet because Buffet has all the insiders news and power/money to control so many different part of econ in US. As an individual trader you almost know nothing about the real fundamental data or insider news.
Simons firm annual return is over 80%, while David Harding firm is only 15% per year in wiki, are you sure they are in the same class?
Read the Senate report on Simons criminal activity. He ran an unregulated broker dealer and defrauded the IRS of taxes by mischaracterizing its status. The fact the Democrats in the Senate published the report despite Simons being a big Democrat fundraiser tells you all you need to know.
I saw that on wiki. There's also this:
" In May 2009, Simons was questioned by investors regarding the pattern of losses in a Renaissance fund owned by outside investors while the investments held by Simons and fund associates enjoyed enormous gains in value."
Makes me wonder how much of his money was earned and how much came from cheating.
Wikipedia: Since its inception in 1988 to 1999, the company's $3.3 billion Medallion Fund claims to have averaged over 35% annual returns after fees. These returns are confirmed in the Wall Street Journal.
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Yes, there was a lot of questioning about what trades were going to his Renaissance/employee only fund and which ones were going to outside investors. There have been questions about front running tactics. He has a bit of a checkered past.
From the other thread on here:
2) Earlier court proceedings and complaints from former PhD
staff, leaked that they were attempting to illegally reverse engineer POSIT order flow. They'd never admit it, but I wouldn't doubt it. An edge none of us could likely replicate. L
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Normaly the yen goes down due to Japan QE and the US 2yr. note goes up due ZIRP. It worked most of the time for the last 6 years(2yr/Yen spread trend)
When not normal times , in stress or crisis, it was likely the two would turn to +corr and net out to daily losses smaller than than losses in the individual legs providing a low vol steady trend for years.
What statistics in math are relevant to indicate that this was likely to change?
If US hikes rates and the shit hits the fan causing flight to Yen safety, this spread may blow out. Apparantly thats the risk. Another All Time great hedge fund manager spoke of this spread and expects this to happen, so it cant last forever I guess.
IMO , things can still trend.
When not normal times , in stress or crisis, it was likely the two would turn to +corr and net out to daily losses smaller than than losses in the individual legs providing a low vol steady trend for years.
What statistics in math are relevant to indicate that this was likely to change?
If US hikes rates and the shit hits the fan causing flight to Yen safety, this spread may blow out. Apparantly thats the risk. Another All Time great hedge fund manager spoke of this spread and expects this to happen, so it cant last forever I guess.
IMO , things can still trend.
Dude, we are in 2015 now, the wiki number should be more updated, then it means recently his firm average return is just 10 percent or below, i guess that is below average of ET.
You don't get it do you?
You told he did average 80% a year. If we fill up the list till 2014 we see that he should have dont from 2011 till 2014 275% a year. If not he can never reach an average of 80% a year. Just to show you that your 80% is complete nonsense.