Jim Simons Trashes Trend Following

[marketsurfer]

He thinks TF has something to do with prediction, you idiot. His ignorance on the subject is fucking blatant. As is your stupidity.

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When you place a trade, you are making a prediction otherwise you wouldn't do it.

Your word games are humorous.


surf

 

[marketsurfer]

LBR's Principle One: A Trend has a higher probability of continuation than of reversal.

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Further more, as much as i like Linda-- we are personal friends--- i disagree with her on this statement and can prove that stocks and index futures are more likely to reverse than trend. This is statistical fact.

surf

 

[kut2k2]

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When you place a trade, you are making a prediction otherwise you wouldn't do it.

Wrong. When I place a bet I am betting on the most likely outcome, otherwise I wouldn't bet. Got nothing to do with predicting/guessing the outcome, just playing the odds (betting on the most likely outcome).

When I trade with the trend, I'll very probably win. So all I have to do is figure out if there is a current trend while not getting fooled by randomness or by chop. MUCH easier said than done, of course, but not impossible. Of course somebody like you could never figure it out but fortunately I am not you.

 

[marketsurfer]

Wrong. When I place a bet I am betting on the most likely outcome, otherwise I wouldn't bet. Got nothing to do with predicting/guessing the outcome, just playing the odds (betting on the most likely outcome).

When I trade with the trend, I'll very probably win. So all I have to do is figure out if there is a current trend while not getting fooled by randomness or by chop. MUCH easier said than done, of course, but not impossible. Of course somebody like you could never figure it out but fortunately I am not you.

I disagree with you -- betting on the most likely outcome is predicting. If u want to use your own definition of words, then that's your own world-- i prefer to deal with reality.

Regardless, peace and have a great weekend!

surf

 

[achilles28]

And yet most trend following firms have either shut down or posted very poor returns.

How do u think most hedgies beat the average over the past 8 years?

 

[loyek590]

How do u think most hedgies beat the average over the past 8 years?

I'm American, what's a hedgie?

 

[achilles28]

Yet something going up or down can also be modeled after geometric brownian motion, which is no better than zero-expected-value gambling (before execution costs) -- in other words, completely worthless as a trading or investing tool.

Again, I am not saying that "trend following" is worthless, but the fact that hardly anyone (if anyone at all) on planet Earth was able to time (even in a very rough sense) the four trades implied by your examples demonstrates that if there is a "trend" to follow as an anticipatory signal, it is by no means easy to do.

"Trends" look seductively obvious in hindsight to the human brain. Whether they enable you to earn money trading is an almost entirely separate issue.

Nonsense. What do u call a bull and bear market lol. See you approach things purely from a mathmatical or statistical perspective. But the arena is economics. You're bringing a knife a to a gun fight.

 

[achilles28]

Loyek. Hedgie is hedge fund

 

[lawrence-lugar]

Blah...after a while...you could care less what people think -- you're not interested in debating
All that matters is if You are making money in the markets.

 

[kut2k2]

I disagree with you -- betting on the most likely outcome is predicting.

What keeps it from being a prediction is the probability of winning. We're not talking about betting on the most likely outcome out of ten possible outcomes. There are only two possibilities, one with a probability greater than 50%, the other with a probability less than 50%.. Betting on the >50% outcome is just good sense, even though you might spend a lot of time losing. That's why it's not predicting: you already KNOW you'll be right more often than not.

So the goal becomes differentiating between entry signals generated by genuine trend and entry signals generated by chop. As I said, challenging but not impossible.

Compare that to counter-trend trading: trying to pick a top and a bottom to trade the next trend. That is a low-probability-outcome procedure that truly does amount to prediction.