I should be clear ... I close all my trades by 4:15 every day. I take the same position to bed every night. I am long the dollar -- with zero leverage -- by default. Most traders would call that being "flat" and I have no quibble with that characterization.
Given the capital I have at my disposal, once I take on significant leverage I must, if I am prudent, trade short term. I only hold positions longer than 15 minutes if they are "in the money".
Since both Farber and Rogers are pontificating about the coming weeks, months and years I can not trade off their comments.
Although my views are in line with Rogers to my way of thinking he has zero -- maybe less than zero -- credibility. A few years ago he preached being long every commodity imaginable -- grains, gold, copper, crude, bird dung -- you name it and he said he was long it.
When asked about these positions when many of them were down 60 and 70% -- positions he said he never closed out -- his reply was that these were corrections in a commodities bull market.
Anyone who believes that holding positions through declines of that magnitude makes sense is either a charlatan or a freakin' nut. Yeah, I know he was Soros' partner, I know he made big, big money. But I am talking about now ... not then.
Farber is better -- much better. That said, these guys are all in the business of making grandiose statements that the media will promote as actual news. Although I concede that both are very knowledgeable men, I do not believe their interests are close enough aligned with mine to take any of them seriously.
They choose to be talking heads. And I choose to regard them that way. I don't need Mark or Jim or Billy Bob to tell me that spiking the deficit through the roof and simultaneously doubling the size of the Fed's balance sheet is bad for the dollar.
Since no one can truly help me interpret the short term and only an idiot would miss the longer term implications of US policy I do not value their opinion.
Given the capital I have at my disposal, once I take on significant leverage I must, if I am prudent, trade short term. I only hold positions longer than 15 minutes if they are "in the money".
Since both Farber and Rogers are pontificating about the coming weeks, months and years I can not trade off their comments.
Although my views are in line with Rogers to my way of thinking he has zero -- maybe less than zero -- credibility. A few years ago he preached being long every commodity imaginable -- grains, gold, copper, crude, bird dung -- you name it and he said he was long it.
When asked about these positions when many of them were down 60 and 70% -- positions he said he never closed out -- his reply was that these were corrections in a commodities bull market.
Anyone who believes that holding positions through declines of that magnitude makes sense is either a charlatan or a freakin' nut. Yeah, I know he was Soros' partner, I know he made big, big money. But I am talking about now ... not then.
Farber is better -- much better. That said, these guys are all in the business of making grandiose statements that the media will promote as actual news. Although I concede that both are very knowledgeable men, I do not believe their interests are close enough aligned with mine to take any of them seriously.
They choose to be talking heads. And I choose to regard them that way. I don't need Mark or Jim or Billy Bob to tell me that spiking the deficit through the roof and simultaneously doubling the size of the Fed's balance sheet is bad for the dollar.
Since no one can truly help me interpret the short term and only an idiot would miss the longer term implications of US policy I do not value their opinion.
