Jim Rogers sees US real estate crash

Quote from Bogan7:

This is the guy that called oil to $100 a barrel last year. The guy helped found Quatum so is no fool but he seems to be flip flopping a bit.

Also if he thinks China stocks are going to fall 30-40% why not get out and wait for the crash and buy cheap instead of sitting with the stocks?

Maybe I am missing something?
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One thing you're definitely missing is that Rogers is a long term investor.

For instance, he's been calling the top of real estate for several years now, correctly as it turns out. He's been long commodities, to include oil for years now. His most recent target for oil is $150, but he also is cautious about when that is, and says it could go down first.

He has sold his emerging market stocks, only willing to hold China. I guess he doesn't want to take the risk of being out of that market. Maybe you've never had the experience of selling out of a market prematurely, then watching it go up without you.

Rogers has said many times he is not a good short term timer. He sits with positions for long periods of time. Maybe that's why he's made a fortune.

OldTrader
 
the condo market in my area is going to feel the biggest brunt of the drop...there is no way no how they are going to be able to withstand even the slightest hiccup...there are cranes as far as the eye can see....these buildings are lining up daily....and with the developers not being able to find any more fools there is going to have to be some kind of fire sale....i have friends already setting up large pools of money waiting to double dip :D
 
Buy the way this guy said that fannie mae was going to collapse in 2002- 2003 - pretty much promised it - acting like he had inside understanding. He said that consequently real estate prices would collapse. I lost money on my fnm puts and sold my house in S.D. because I agreed with him.

Luckily I got back in to RE in a big way within 4 mos. (and then got mostly out) And am only about 10 percent behind where I would have been had I not sold my house in Carlsbad.
 
Quote from ElCubano:

the condo market in my area is going to feel the biggest brunt of the drop...there is no way no how they are going to be able to withstand even the slightest hiccup...there are cranes as far as the eye can see....these buildings are lining up daily....and with the developers not being able to find any more fools there is going to have to be some kind of fire sale....i have friends already setting up large pools of money waiting to double dip :D
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When that happens I'd like to pick-up a South Beach flat as well.....
 
I have the utmost respect for him. He correctly called the commodity bull market that we are all experiencing now back in the late 90s when the huge declines after the asian crisis/russian bond crisis/ LTCM crisis had devastated the oil price down to ridiculous levels . He was not only predicting oil to rebound back to normal ie 20-30 range but to go into a long bull market run. Most of you would not have noticed because you were making plenty on the latest .com related stock.

He was early in his predictions but spot on with the substance.

He will be proved correct again- but will his timing be right this time? As someone else pointed out he has been predicting a housing decline for some years, so his forecast is getting closer to reality.

I believe that on the face of it his bullishness about china going forward would seem to be contradicting his call about US housing and the flow on effects on the consumer and world economic growth. But when you consider that China now has an active policy in place to replace their export/investment model of growth of the past , with a more sustainable internal growth model, then you realise that China will be relatively immune to the falling demand for its products during the coming housing lead recession. Also with a lack of other targets for investment there will be global shifts back into China on a relative basis, these flows will keep their stock market bouyant, after the inevitable correction which he predicts
 
There are reports that not only he is short the U.S equity markets, but has sold off his emerging market equity positions, as well, including China.

Bob Pisani expressly mentioned this this morning on the air on CNBC, adding that he "had never seen Jim Rogers so bearish in his life" or something to that effect.

Rogers seems to have gotten a lot right, and very little wrong, in his career.

That says more than anything.
 
Let's see....$100 oil, Fannie May collapse, nothing but bearishness for U.S. stocks since the turnaround in 2003...


Quote from ByLoSellHi:



Rogers seems to have gotten a lot right, and very little wrong, in his career.

That says more than anything.
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Never put your financial future in the hands of any single person's predictions or prognostications.

More than one rich person/institution has lost it all, and many more will again with bad bets.

There's nothing wrong with riding on someone else's coat-tails.

But you better know your entry, your stop, and your exit prices.
'Cause they ain't gonna tell ya theirs:cool:
 
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