Yes Rogers is often wrong, I agree. And yes Saudi are fighting a war on its borders and have seen unrest within its marginalized population as well, over the past years (they spread much money around to overcome this). So I would image they need every dollar they can pump and will pump every dollar they can. So does Iraq and so does Iran. And they are all fighting for market share.
Russia has pretty low production cost, cross continental pipelines and are linked to supplying China so they may be in better shape.
But another factor may also be at work here. I think the US has been wanting to get out from under the need and reliance on middle east oil for a longggggg time. While oil was high we were able to develop technologies that allow us to become practically self reliant (when including 10% gasohol and Canada oil sands in the mix) for the first time in a longggg time. I doubt the US oil industry is ready to kneel down and surrender this new found self reliance in such short order. I would guess the US (and Canada) keeps pumping existing wells pretty hard cuz no matter what the price of oil, I think the US would rather buy oil from the US/Canada/Mexico than Saudi (9/11 comes back around full circle).
There will be a hell of a lot of consolidation in the industry and it will be a great opportunity for the big oil majors to buy up small exploration, drillers, producers, pipeline and proven fracking/deep water reserves. We really should have built that Keystone pipeline while oil prices were high. But in the end it will probably look like the airlines after deregulation with many carriers reducing down to 2-3 very big boys and finding ways to run budget operations. The big players with lobbyist and corp clout and will have much more success fighting local fracking opposition with much lower legal costs and that will help with lower overall costs. Salaries in the industry will come down some and, by now, I would think efficiency of scale would lower fracking specialty equip and thus capex. Finally, I think these US majors will start to scale into other North, Central and South American countries with oil prices this low and that will internationalize (lower costs, lower salaries, lower local regulations) the US supply commodity...all making it possible to profit and to continue supplying 80% or more of US oil needs domestically at prices below $45 dollars a barrel.
So yea, I guess I am a believer that oil will not go back up too much from here in long term movements for a while and maybe even lower until the industry shakes out and settles.
Canada, on the other hand may have more problems because it is very hard to lower oil sands costs and at $35-40 per barrel that might create severe profit/loss and debt problems.
I personally don't believe the state department would want to crash oil prices with such a large existing US franking/deep water oil industry developed and in production now. But the Saudi's maybe intentionally added to the mix by not cutting back once oil prices started dropping in order to kill off some competition from higher cost producers (namely US, Canada, Gulf Mexico, maybe Brazil)
