See the newsflash at the bottom of this page
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=75413&perpage=6&pagenumber=3
--bull
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=75413&perpage=6&pagenumber=3
--bull
Jim Rogers: Oil will hit $100
- Thread starter a529612
- Start date
I have tremendous respect for Mr Rogers and enjoy reading about his trading(investing) style. My personal view is that we will trade at $150 per barrel at some point during the next 5 to 8 years. I must point out here that I don't care what Mr Rogers thinks--he is not trading my account--I am.
Quote from marketsurfer:
i am in my right mind,( although some would debate this) LOL ! and i am short oil. average price 75.50--2 out of a potential 3 entries thus far.....
we are continuing to hold the oil shorts here. the < = 70 before >= 80 bet is about to pay off.
we are now looking for < = 68.
jimmy rogers is, and remains very wrong on his call.
best wishes,
surfer
Count me as a major fan of Jimmy.
Of course he'll be wrong on some calls and he's a horrible market timer, but he makes 98% of everyone else out there look like rank amateurs. His round the world trips probably cost more than most of the talking heads make in a year.
He's made his fortune by going against the grain. It's no different here. Demand is going to go up alot faster than supply.
Of course he'll be wrong on some calls and he's a horrible market timer, but he makes 98% of everyone else out there look like rank amateurs. His round the world trips probably cost more than most of the talking heads make in a year.
He's made his fortune by going against the grain. It's no different here. Demand is going to go up alot faster than supply.
Most the the talking heads are saying that demand is outstripping supply.... So Jim Rogers just joined the queue, albeit a little late. Hardly innovative thinking IMO.
Shell and Chevron are just about to purchase huge (proven) oil shale reserves in the Rockies. AMEC is building the pipeline to the Midwest. The Saudis and their OPEC pals are getting worried. Crude will be even more volatile in the next year or two but long term it's going down.
Although I don't think we'll ever see $100 oil we may see $80 again before the end of the year. That will just help ramp up production even more and help to increase industrial demand for renewables even more. Retail gas demand will probably stay strong but ultimately we'll see retail gas prices down around $1.50 again. Probably sometime around 2008 elections....
Shell and Chevron are just about to purchase huge (proven) oil shale reserves in the Rockies. AMEC is building the pipeline to the Midwest. The Saudis and their OPEC pals are getting worried. Crude will be even more volatile in the next year or two but long term it's going down.
Although I don't think we'll ever see $100 oil we may see $80 again before the end of the year. That will just help ramp up production even more and help to increase industrial demand for renewables even more. Retail gas demand will probably stay strong but ultimately we'll see retail gas prices down around $1.50 again. Probably sometime around 2008 elections....
The Saudis and OPEC have lost pricing power although the threat of OPEC production cuts still seems to worry the hedge fund boys for some reason.
With supply and demand evenly matched, it's the marginal barrel that counts. And unfortunately OPEC (and others) have too many spare marginal barrels lying around right now.
The new kids on the block are Russia, China, Azerbaijan and possibly Angola. Nigeria might even be tempted to leave OPEC (not sure who's funding those rebels....?) Angola is full of Texans already and China and Russia are new best friends. Venezuela remains a wildcard.
Most still seem to think that Chinese demand is still the driver here.... But it's US demand that remains key, especially industrial demand. After all, us consumers will cough up extra for gas but when you're a company with a bottom line to protect you start to look around for something cheaper... The fact that a Russian oil major (Lukoil) is becoming a huge retailer in the US is very interesting and will lead to much more competition in unleaded and hence help to drive crude down more.
With supply and demand evenly matched, it's the marginal barrel that counts. And unfortunately OPEC (and others) have too many spare marginal barrels lying around right now.
The new kids on the block are Russia, China, Azerbaijan and possibly Angola. Nigeria might even be tempted to leave OPEC (not sure who's funding those rebels....?) Angola is full of Texans already and China and Russia are new best friends. Venezuela remains a wildcard.
Most still seem to think that Chinese demand is still the driver here.... But it's US demand that remains key, especially industrial demand. After all, us consumers will cough up extra for gas but when you're a company with a bottom line to protect you start to look around for something cheaper... The fact that a Russian oil major (Lukoil) is becoming a huge retailer in the US is very interesting and will lead to much more competition in unleaded and hence help to drive crude down more.
Jim was bullish on Oil as far back as 1999. He got tired of going on CNBC in '99 and 2000 talking about commodities so went on a long vacation and wrote a book.
Seems you are backwardated dude ...