Jim Rogers: Oil will hit $100

If we removed all of the "mark up", taxes and profit from the oil network and the crude price would be the price to work from, would the cost of gasoline be half?
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

remember what happened during katrina. we profitably shorted this event. EVERYONE expected the opposite effect.
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I guess that was a good example for what Eliot corrected in my post, that less refining capacity equals higher gas, but lower crude prices.

That is dangerous, because basicly big oil is interested in taking out a few refineries.... :eek:
 
Rogers etc are just talking their book. As he receives royalties income when people put money in long-only commodities funds that track his "index".

Oil is a market with a BROKEN PRICE DISCOVERY MECHANISM (sortof like pricing cash $SPX off GOOG's single-stock-futures, it's crazy I know!)

Other than that, it would be really great if people would do a little homework before posting here.

PS: I am an agnostic wrt "peak oil" etc (having read both sides, incl. Lynch), which might or might not be a real problem, but I know that 90% of what is written in the press is pure BS.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

i am in my right mind,( although some would debate this) LOL ! and i am short oil. average price 75.50--2 out of a potential 3 entries thus far.....

:D :D :D
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Oil is making new highs and you are short.....I'd say you may very well not be in your right mind.....Or, you could make a killing if you picked the top....

I wish you luck on that speculative play nonetheless...
 
Quote from Bond-Speculator:

Oil is making new highs and you are short.....I'd say you may very well not be in your right mind.....Or, you could make a killing if you picked the top....

I wish you luck on that speculative play nonetheless...
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thank you, speculator. i wish you prosperity, as well.

i believe my data/information is accurate, and am confident in the position.

short from 75.50 average.

surf
 
the guy is a walking encyclopedia but he has been very wrong in the past. i remember in 1995-1996 he had total conviction that the stock market is overvalued and everyone should buy treasuries. well he missed the entire internet boom.

he has also been very right though. he was talking about China back then and how China is going to be an economic power and how everyone should learn Chinese.
 
T. Boone Pickens Yesterday said OIL would see a $100 first before we see $30.

Anyone want to argue with him.

He made $1.5 Billion last year. :eek:
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

thank you, speculator. i wish you prosperity, as well.

i believe my data/information is accurate, and am confident in the position.

short from 75.50 average.

surf
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Do yourself a favor: DO NOT average this position down. As an independent trader, you probably will do it anyways if your conviction in your position is strong enough. But hey, you can lead a horse to water.....

Are you short CLV6 (PIT) or QM? just curious

What else do you trade?
 
one of the most convincing full featured analysis I've seen on oil:

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton072206.html

The only factor he doesn't deal with is increased price and possible broken price discovery mechanism stimulated by speculation and hedge funds during the past few years.

Regardless, I agree that unless we hit global recession, oil is going up until the market can no longer bear it.

Isn't it kind of disturbing to read the EIA petroleum status report and see year over year production of oil is down in the face of $75 oil?


I like how he differentiates unfounded oil spike motion (ie first gulf war) from the earlier Iran embargoes which had a very real and lasting affect on supply/demand economics.
 
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