Jim Rogers: "Inflation is 6-7% in the US"
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Due to geopolitical changes - namely X-billion Chinese and Indians entering the workforce, since the mid 1990's inflation has been concentrated in commodities and certain services (education, health care) - not the traditional wages and consumer goods. First 'inflation' hit equities, then rolled into housing. Currently I think we are seeing inflation rear its head in emerging market equities and commodities. Mark my word, we'll be back at $150 oil sooner than anyone expects. It is a perfect inflation hedge - in many ways superior to gold.
Those who live in the real world and not mom's basement know that food is much higher, medical expenses and prescriptions are ridiculous. Fuel used to be in the $1.50/gal neighborhood.
Secondly, with the recession, why haven't these prices deflated? Could it be that inflation is holding them up and then some?
Secondly, with the recession, why haven't these prices deflated? Could it be that inflation is holding them up and then some?
Wouldn't you say that everyone has their own rate of inflation?
It depends what you're spending. Here are some large categories for me, in approximately descending order, and what my observations have been over the last 2 yrs:
mortgage interest: down (refinanced recently)
property tax: down (home value down)
home maintenance: up slightly (materials costs up, but labor seems to be flat or falling a little)
health insurance: way up (but to be fair, I don't pay it, my employer does)
wine: up
food: up
nat gas: down, but only a tiny bit
clothing: down (absolutely everything's on sale)
gasoline: bouncing around like a yo-yo, but basically down
brokerage commissions: down (lots of competition)
opera and symphony tickets: way down (they are practically giving them away)
Nevertheless, I realize that the average person in America:
-cannot refinance, so may be dealing with increasing interest costs as variable rates increase
-has a few kids, so food costs, which are increasing, are a major budget item
-is struggling with health insurance costs (most are paying part thru their employer) which are increasing rapidly
-is paying credit card interest every month, which is probably increasing
-does not give a rat's ass about operas, wine or brokerage commissions
So for the average or median person in America, there may indeed be inflation, and it could easily be more than what the government says it is.
It depends what you're spending. Here are some large categories for me, in approximately descending order, and what my observations have been over the last 2 yrs:
mortgage interest: down (refinanced recently)
property tax: down (home value down)
home maintenance: up slightly (materials costs up, but labor seems to be flat or falling a little)
health insurance: way up (but to be fair, I don't pay it, my employer does)
wine: up
food: up
nat gas: down, but only a tiny bit
clothing: down (absolutely everything's on sale)
gasoline: bouncing around like a yo-yo, but basically down
brokerage commissions: down (lots of competition)
opera and symphony tickets: way down (they are practically giving them away)
Nevertheless, I realize that the average person in America:
-cannot refinance, so may be dealing with increasing interest costs as variable rates increase
-has a few kids, so food costs, which are increasing, are a major budget item
-is struggling with health insurance costs (most are paying part thru their employer) which are increasing rapidly
-is paying credit card interest every month, which is probably increasing
-does not give a rat's ass about operas, wine or brokerage commissions
So for the average or median person in America, there may indeed be inflation, and it could easily be more than what the government says it is.
your point is interesting. but it seems to focus on the last two years.
Over a bit more time than that
sporting event tickets are way up.
Mortgage rates might be down but the cost of owning a house is way up.
Over 10 years the price of housing in good school districts is way up. Same for property taxes and insurance.
Education costs are also higher.
The cost of decent button down shirts is up. The cost of decent shoes is up. Ties are up. Haircuts are up. Office space is up. Electricity is up. Gas is up. Cars are up.
My income is up but it may drop as my neighbors are suffering from unmanageable mortgages all around.
I will grant you this my boat is not worth much in this market. But I am not selling it.
Over a bit more time than that
sporting event tickets are way up.
Mortgage rates might be down but the cost of owning a house is way up.
Over 10 years the price of housing in good school districts is way up. Same for property taxes and insurance.
Education costs are also higher.
The cost of decent button down shirts is up. The cost of decent shoes is up. Ties are up. Haircuts are up. Office space is up. Electricity is up. Gas is up. Cars are up.
My income is up but it may drop as my neighbors are suffering from unmanageable mortgages all around.
I will grant you this my boat is not worth much in this market. But I am not selling it.