Jim Rogers: Citigroup is a buy at $5

"The reason it's so depressed is that no one really knows how bad it will be, but we think that sometime in 2008 there will be clarity and we'll start to see buyers come back," he says. "They might have to cut their dividend -- which would not be so terrible -- to shore up their capital base, but they're not going out of business. They will weather this storm."

The manager says his analysts have put their money where their spreadsheets are -- buying more Fannie, Freddie and Citi for their personal accounts than at any time in the past five years. "They believe they have properly analyzed these franchises and should buy even though they don't know when the turn is coming," Pzena says. "There's no dissension about this position within the firm. Buying low is a strategy that has never failed to work."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/HowTheSmartMoneyGotItWrong.aspx
 
Jom Rogers is the man. His only fuck up is Airlines. Unless he was talking about foreign airlines. :D

I imagine Air Travel is Asia must be soaring!
 
Quote from The Kin:

Jom Rogers is the man. His only fuck up is Airlines. Unless he was talking about foreign airlines. :D

I imagine Air Travel is Asia must be soaring!
More...

Yeah, this is a classic "too early, but ultimately right" call.

Few people are aware that Rogers' commodities call was initially a howler. He got bullish in early 1997, I remember a Financial Times article he wrote recommending commodities then. The Asia crisis broke a few months later, and commodities got absolutely annihilated. So he was about 18 months too early. But look now - long-term, he was spectacularly right.

So that's the way to use Jim's plays - if he recommends something which is in a bear market, wait until it ends and you get a turn in the trend, with higher highs and higher lows, 200 day MA turning up, and so on. Until then, the risk is high. Or make a small initial purchase, and dollar cost average over the next 2 years.

IMO airlines will be a GREAT buy later this year, once oil tops. If airlines are cheap now, they will be dirt cheap if oil hits $200 and the S&P hits 1000, both of which I think are possible.
 
The financial channels and media sources are so dumb, they never provide any background to Jim's picks or predictions.

He's big picture, global, long term. The US media is the exact opposite. US centric, obsessed with the minute by minute.

Jim's long term picks are viewed through this little short lense. Makes no sense.

I've been organizing a lot of Jim's past predictions, interviews, video's, what he's said in books, etc.

His picks have been mind boggling. Besides C, FNM, and the brokers and financials.

He was buying bonds in 1981 and 82. Bought Botswana in 1991, held through 2003, up 800%. This is what people miss when they only focus on his US picks. Or that he was too bearish on the US in the early 90's. Big deal. He lost X in the US market, but made a fortune in Iran or China.

And in the last 10 years, he's cleaned up with commodities, china, short dollar, agriculture, oil (the suprise is how high it goes and how high it stays), and then the financials.

Called FNM a $5 a few years ago. It's now at $10.
 
Quote from jbtrader23:


Called FNM a $5 a few years ago. It's now at $10.
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This FNM call of his was absolutely a classic Rogers call. I can recall him clearly talking about FNM as his favorite short....at 70. That was a few years ago. The reason I remember it so clearly is that at the time I was long some FNM. LOL. So on that particular Monday morning I sold my FNM at around 70. Not long after that, I can recall a guy that used to be on Fox on Saturday morning (named Greg) going long FNM. Rogers again said it was his favorite short.

I don't recall if he said it was going to 5. I do recall him saying C was going to 5, when it was around 50.

His calls on these financials were absolutely fantastic.

Between being short the financials, and long the commodities, this guy has cleaned up.

OldTrader
 
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