Jim Cramer's Mad Money "Speculative Fridays"

Thats what the textbook states. The reverse head and shoulders pattern is typically found at the bottom of a downtrend.

However, my opinion differs from the textbook. The concept is still the same. You have price trying to fight its way over the resistance line. It tried once & failed, tried twice & failed and the third time can be the charm. At each notable bottom, there is someone willing to step in to buy it and keep it from falling telling you that someone is buying on pullbacks.

I would not long until the resistance line turns to support in a scenario like this because I dont like to fade.

Quote from Joab:

Ummm a Head and Shoulders is a Bottoming / Topping pattern not a continuation pattern. :cool:
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Quote from michaelscott:

Thats what the textbook states. The reverse head and shoulders pattern is typically found at the bottom of a downtrend.

However, my opinion differs from the textbook. The concept is still the same. You have price trying to fight its way over the resistance line. It tried once & failed, tried twice & failed and the third time can be the charm. At each notable bottom, there is someone willing to step in to buy it and keep it from falling telling you that someone is buying on pullbacks.

I would not long until the resistance line turns to support in a scenario like this because I dont like to fade.
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Just to keep the record straight (since this is Elite trader) what you just discribed is called a breakout. :)
 
First lets look at the float. Looks like a nice float with a good amount short. About 4-5 days of volume to cover the shorts.


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Average Volume (3 month)3: 596,811
Average Volume (10 day)3: 637,425
Shares Outstanding6: 37.55M
Float: 30.05M
% Held by Insiders4: 2.88%
% Held by Institutions4: 89.20%
Shares Short (as of 12-Jun-07)3: 2.98M
Short Ratio (as of 12-Jun-07)3: 7.1
Short % of Float (as of 12-Jun-07)3: 8.20%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 3.00M

"Harvest Natural Resources, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, and disposition of oil and natural gas properties in Venezuela. It operates the South Monagas Unit comprising the Uracoa, Tucupita, and Bombal fields. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in Houston, Texas."
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Looks like there was a recent spike in price on the 18th. Here is the press release:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...6-18_22-51-00_N18421468&type=comktNews&rpc=44
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So let me get to the meat of this. This stock surged hard and pulled back exactly 50% of the surge. It looks like its making a rounded bottom. I say its time to buy. My first target price will be in the high 13s and my second target price will be in the 18s.

Wait at least 1 hour on Monday before considering a buy. Wait for it to pullback. I think its going to gap up in the pre-market and then pullback to 12.25 within 1 hour of trading on Monday.
 

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He was blowing Eddie Lampert when recommending SHLD at 190 and change. Good call...

Michaelscott: Do you filter any information on a qualitative-basis? Is there any tip you won't trade?
 
This is the all data picture. This is a VERY VERY bulllish chart.

You can see why my first price target is in the high 13s and then why my next price target is the 18s. There is a third price target if it can bust up above and that price target is about double where its trading right now.

You have a big cup, then a 1/3 pullback and then a 1/2 pullback of that pullback.
 

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This is one Cramer got right.

Quote from atticus:

He was blowing Eddie Lampert when recommending SHLD at 190 and change. Good call...

Michaelscott: Do you filter any information on a qualitative-basis? Is there any tip you won't trade?
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I looked at TX, another one he mentioned, but I believe HNR will have more of a short term spike for us.

-cheaper price
-mentioned at the start of the show as his primary pick where as TX is a secondary
-more volume in afterhours for HNR
-Technicals appear favoring HNR to spike higher. There was a good spike sometime ago for HNR, then a 1/2 pullback and a rounded bottom. This tells me that someone has decided to accumulate at the 1/2 pullback and, maybe, the existing shorts have decided to cover at that point. Cramer's mention of HNR on the show will speed the accumulation process and short covering processes up as now they will have to compete with his audience for shares. You know there are guys out there with 100 grandof buying power or more who watch the show and literally go "all in". There will be a lot of money being thrown at it on Monday and the shorts and accumulaters will now be fighting for shares.

Let me reiterate that I am operating under a short-term trade philosophy in that I get in at the start of the week and then exit on Weds or Thurs after a spike.

I suspect HNR just might be a good long term hold, but it is very risky (Venezuela play).
 
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