Quote from Mvic:
Some of the greatest macro traders are think type traders.
The ones that succeed are the ones that a) have enough education or intelligence to think somewhat correctly, AND b) have excellent money and trade management skills, AND c) have a realistic assesment of the time frame they need to be trading in.
There were many poeple last year who were 100% correct in anticipating the prtoblems that have started to matter to the equity markets this year even while many on WS and in the Gov were saying things were great. Most lost money because they did not correctly assess the time frame they needed to be trading on, months not weeks or days.
Failure in trading for those who have a basic idea of what they are doing usually comes from a mismatch between their edge, their time frame, and/or their money management.