Need a new JGB thread here just because I'd like to see the discussion take place.
2% inflation targeting, a currency that moves ~15% in response (as verification of it as a credible threat), yet 7 yr JGB yields at .44% and 10 yr at .8%. All amidst risk premia globally reduced (verifiably) with much of Euro zone worries, fiscal cliff worries, etc all being minimized. And developed countries' treasury debt all well off highs.
It's cognitive dissonance, especially since inflation expectations trump central bank buying, since total outstanding debt is arguably more important than flow (since existing holders can trump a flow rate if worried...).
Thoughts here? Is China vs Japan enough to justify this?
I won't even bring the debt/GDP argument in -- just on a relative basis of developed countries' rates, the Japan situation really does look like a real mispricing. Even a 100-150bp correction really seems warranted (even if debt/GDP was in-line with US) regardless ... Should we add the Swiss to the argument?
2% inflation targeting, a currency that moves ~15% in response (as verification of it as a credible threat), yet 7 yr JGB yields at .44% and 10 yr at .8%. All amidst risk premia globally reduced (verifiably) with much of Euro zone worries, fiscal cliff worries, etc all being minimized. And developed countries' treasury debt all well off highs.
It's cognitive dissonance, especially since inflation expectations trump central bank buying, since total outstanding debt is arguably more important than flow (since existing holders can trump a flow rate if worried...).
Thoughts here? Is China vs Japan enough to justify this?
I won't even bring the debt/GDP argument in -- just on a relative basis of developed countries' rates, the Japan situation really does look like a real mispricing. Even a 100-150bp correction really seems warranted (even if debt/GDP was in-line with US) regardless ... Should we add the Swiss to the argument?
