JEM Algo used by Nate Silver's 538 predicts Senate win for Rs.

The algo currently has it set at a 58% chance the Rs taking a majority by 1 seat.

There is a consensus at 538, Washington Post and NYT that the Rs will win.
The polls have it very close.

But I think everyone is assuming the electorate is going to break towards the Rs on election day.

I am concerned about the Ds ground game and non citizens voting.

However, many articles are concerned that Blacks are not enthused because Obama has done nothing for them.

I put the chance of blowout for Rs at 15%.
I put the chance the D hold senate at 15%.



From Politico.

Republicans are on the precipice of taking control of the Senate for the first time in eight years, new NBC News/Marist polls released Sunday show, but the GOP has yet to lock up many of the key battleground races.

The surveys show the Republican candidate with slight, inside-the-margin advantages in three of the hardest-fought contests for Democratic-held seats: Arkansas, Colorado and Iowa. North Carolina is a dead heat.



Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/...te-nbc-marist-polls-112203.html#ixzz3HI9vQlZo
 
The Bushes, Led by W., Rally to Make Jeb ‘45’



WASHINGTON — When Jeb Bush decides whether to run for president, there will be no family meeting à la Mitt Romney, no gathering at Walker’s Point in Kennebunkport to go over the pros and cons. “I don’t think it’ll be like a big internal straw poll,” said his son, Jeb Bush Jr.

But if there were, the results of the poll are pretty much in. As Mr. Bush nears a decision to become the third member of his storied family to seek the presidency, the extended Bush clan and its attendant network, albeit with one prominent exception, are largely rallying behind the prospect and pulling the old machine out of the closet.

“No question,” Jeb Jr. said in an interview, “people are getting fired up about it — donors and people who have been around the political process for a while, people he’s known in Tallahassee when he was governor. The family, we’re geared up either way.” Most important, he added, his mother, Columba, the prospective candidate’s politics-averse wife, has given her assent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/27/us/the-bushes-led-by-w-rally-to-make-jeb-45.html?_r=1
 
I wonder if Romney is going to throw his weight behind Bush and be picked for VP. Sort of a Republican stiff arm to real conservatives.
 
I am seeing the Survey USA polls come out with big swings to the Rs in the last few days
they now have the R up in georgia and another poll has the R up in new hampshire.

these are 3 to 5 point swings in a few days.

Somehow we always see the polls break towards the Rs in the last few weeks.

Other than going to likely voters I wonder why that could be? Are the early polls skewed?
 
Now I am confused. I not that polls work hard to get millenials in the sample because many of them don't have home phones and I imagine many screen their calls to save minutes.

So I was thinking Obama and the Dems are being saved by the fact millenials are democrats til they pay taxes...

So now this Harvard Polls says they are done with the dems and going to vote GOP.

So who are these pollsters polling to come up with close races?

The algo now gives a 27% for a R blowout. The samples may be very off. Not because they are being skewed on purpose by using too many dems based on previous turnouts... but because the electorate makeup has changed.....


HARVARD POLL: MILLENNIALS DONE WITH OBAMA, WANT GOP TO CONTROL CONGRESS



A Harvard Poll released on October 29 shows that millennials are done with Obama and want Republicans to control Congress.
Released by the Harvard Institute of Politics, the poll shows that 18 to 29-year-olds who say they will "definitetly be voting" next week plan to support Republicans by a margin of 51 to 47 percent.

In September 2010--just two months before the Republican landslides in those midterm elections--Republicans only had "43 percent" support among millennials.

Regarding Obama, only "43 percent" of millennials in general approve of the job he's done--"53 percent" disapprove. But when approval/disapproval questions are asked to millennials who will "definitely be voting" next week, Obama's approval slips down to "42 percent" and his disapproval jumps to "56 percent."

One of the biggest concerns for millennials is terrorism against the US. "61 percent" of millennials said they are "a great deal" or "somewhat" concerned with the prospect of another attack against the US. They also support the plan to "expand the US air campaign against ISIS" by a margin of "39 percent" to "20 percent."
 
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/10/28/Poll-Shows-Purdue-Surging-in-Georgia

Republican Senate candidate David Perdue leads his Democratic opponent Michelle Nunn in Georgia, a SurveyUSA/11Alive poll shows. According to the poll, with a “5-point right turn in one of the nation's most high-visibility contests,” David Perdue now leads 48-45 over Nunn.
Perdue spokesman Mark Bednar said:

Our campaign continues to gain momentum, because Georgians know that David Perdue has the right experience and vision to get our country back on track. Like so many Georgians, David knows Washington has gotten us into this mess, and it will take a true outsider to get us headed in the right direction. That’s why he will go to Washington to grow our economy and create jobs, repeal and replace Obamacare, and create more opportunity for all Georgians. It’s clear that voters want a Senator who will work for Georgia, not a Senator who will work for President Obama.
The same polling outfit gave Nunn a two point lead last week. According to the SurveyUSA analysis, The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported:

Among women, where Perdue had trailed by 13 points and now trails by just 2. And among core Republicans, where Perdue’s 84-point advantage is the largest it has been in seven WXIA-TV tracking polls going back to 08/18/14. There is movement to Perdue among seniors, where he now leads by 25 points. Worse for Nunn: among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Perdue leads by 10 points.
Additionally, the survey predicts a 31 percent turnout among African-Americans and 52 percent turnout among women. The margin of error is +/- four percentage points.

​


jem said:
I am seeing the Survey USA polls come out with big swings to the Rs in the last few days
they now have the R up in georgia and another poll has the R up in new hampshire.

these are 3 to 5 point swings in a few days.

Somehow we always see the polls break towards the Rs in the last few weeks.

Other than going to likely voters I wonder why that could be? Are the early polls skewed?
More...
 
Liberal Lurch: Both Parties Find Progressive Jesus In Dying Moments Of Campaign
Posted: 10/30/2014 6:46 am EDT Updated: 4 hours ago
blank.gif


"WASHINGTON -- While the GOP has effectively locked down the campaign for the House and is in a good place to win control of the Senate, the contours of the midterm election have taken on a decidedly liberal edge as candidates make their closing arguments.

"From the Deep South to the frontiers of Alaska, candidates from both parties are one-upping each other in support of entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security, positioning themselves as populists, and standing up for the minimum wage, renewable fuels and, at least rhetorically, some modicum of reproductive freedom.

"In North Carolina, GOP Senate candidate Thom Tillis, whose victory in the Republican primary rested on his ardent opposition to expanding Medicaid, is now saying he would "encourage" the Republican-controlled state legislature and Gov. Pat McCrory (R) to consider expanding the program."

More>>
 
Its very close right now according to the polls. Using the polls the algo sees a 57% chance of the Rs up by one seat with a one runoff they should win.

But there there is also a 25% chance the polls are substantially off and that democrats get blown out by the shift of the millenials and others to the gop.

There is also a 7% chance the Dems ground game / vote fraud... give it to the dems.
we see voting machines and non americans casting a lot of votes.





http://dailycaller.com/2014/10/30/expectations-crushed-millennials-reject-obama-in-droves/


Millennials who participated in the poll and said they will “definitely be voting” in next week’s elections prefer Republican congressional candidates over their Democratic opponents by a margin of 51 percent to 47 percent.

That’s a dramatic about-face compared to recent elections.

In both 2008 and 2012, college students and the rest of America’s youth voting bloc voted enthusiastically and overwhelmingly for President Barack Obama. In 2012, for example, Obama trounced Mitt Romney among young people by a margin of 67 percent to 30 percent in populous and crucial states such as Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, according to a Tufts University study.

In 2010, the last “off-year” election, the same Harvard poll found that millennials favored Democrats over Republicans by 55 percent to 43 percent.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top