Jeff R.'s Trading

[cabletrader]

Ok, so it looks like maybe there was a little exaggeration in the actual size of the trade but even at 1/10th of the size (550) the trade would still be worthwhile wouldn't it, and the analysis itself can't really be faulted. The idea seems simple enough, find a cheap over-hyped, pumped-up stock, look for a chart pattern that suggests a reversal and sell.

I don't know anything about trading stocks but it seems to me that for a relatively small outlay the returns could be pretty good with a strategy like this.

One thing I did notice was the lack of any stop loss, or is this some sort of averaging or martingale strategy? Let's say price had gone up instead of down where would you have said the trade was 'wrong' and bailed out, or would you have just added to it indefinitely to average price? Isn't this the area where Sykes got into trouble, huge losses on one bad trade compared to lots of small gains on profitable ones? In one of the episodes of WSW he gets excited about a $50 gain on one trade but then later in another episode he's talking about a 300k drawdown on an open trade and it taking months to turn around.

And if trades are averaged into with perhaps some sizeable positions built up how do you cover them if there is this liquidity problem with microcap stocks?

 

[fluttrader]

Quote from cabletrader:

Ok, so it looks like maybe there was a little exaggeration in the actual size of the trade but even at 1/10th of the size (550) the trade would still be worthwhile wouldn't it, and the analysis itself can't really be faulted. The idea seems simple enough, find a cheap over-hyped, pumped-up stock, look for a chart pattern that suggests a reversal and sell.

I don't know anything about trading stocks but it seems to me that for a relatively small outlay the returns could be pretty good with a strategy like this.

One thing I did notice was the lack of any stop loss, or is this some sort of averaging or martingale strategy? Let's say price had gone up instead of down where would you have said the trade was 'wrong' and bailed out, or would you have just added to it indefinitely to average price? Isn't this the area where Sykes got into trouble, huge losses on one bad trade compared to lots of small gains on profitable ones? In one of the episodes of WSW he gets excited about a $50 gain on one trade but then later in another episode he's talking about a 300k drawdown on an open trade and it taking months to turn around.

And if trades are averaged into with perhaps some sizeable positions built up how do you cover them if there is this liquidity problem with microcap stocks?

Exactly, this is a DISASTER waiting to happen again , shorting penny stock , CRAZY

 

[rogersjeff7]

Quote from cabletrader:

Ok, so it looks like maybe there was a little exaggeration in the actual size of the trade but even at 1/10th of the size (550) the trade would still be worthwhile wouldn't it, and the analysis itself can't really be faulted. The idea seems simple enough, find a cheap over-hyped, pumped-up stock, look for a chart pattern that suggests a reversal and sell.

I don't know anything about trading stocks but it seems to me that for a relatively small outlay the returns could be pretty good with a strategy like this.

One thing I did notice was the lack of any stop loss, or is this some sort of averaging or martingale strategy? Let's say price had gone p instead of down where would you have said the trade was 'wrong' and bailed out, or would you have just added to it indefinitely to average price? Isn't this the area where Sykes got into trouble, huge losses on one bad trade compared to lots of small gains on profitable ones? In one of the episodes of WSW he gets excited about a $50 gain on one trade but then later in another episode he's talking about a 300k drawdown on an open trade and it taking months to turn around.

And if trades are averaged into with perhaps some sizeable positions built up how do you cover them if there is this liquidity problem with microcap stocks?

there was no exaggeration, this journal is for my personal use too. but like tim, i don't use stop losses, instead i aim to watch every trade. if the stock does not breakdown like i expect, i will cover immediately, depending on the price action, i might or might not be aggressive in my covering. the thing about these volatile stocks, it seems that there are often fakeouts and if you get short squeezed, then the sky's the limit because most shorts aren't so short-term and are unwilling to take quick losses.

if i stay willing to exit at the first sign of trouble, i fail to see how this could ever be very dangerous?

i can't believe you've got e defending tim now, but that 300k loss was on CYGT which falls far outside of this short selling strategy

 

[fluttrader]

Quote from rogersjeff7:

there was no exaggeration, this journal is for my personal use too. but like tim, i don't use stop losses, instead i aim to watch every trade. if the stock does not breakdown like i expect, i will cover immediately, depending on the price action, i might or might not be aggressive in my covering. the thing about these volatile stocks, it seems that there are often fakeouts and if you get short squeezed, then the sky's the limit because most shorts aren't so short-term and are unwilling to take quick losses.

if i stay willing to exit at the first sign of trouble, i fail to see how this could ever be very dangerous?

i can't believe you've got e defending tim now, but that 300k loss was on CYGT which falls far outside of this short selling strategy

Shorting penny stocks is 1 of the most dangerous instruments to short.
Do you realize that sooner or later you will NOT be able to cover soon enough due the low liquidity.

With long positions your loss is limited to 100 % , with short positions your loss is UNLIMITED.
Shorting a very liquid instrument like the ES futures that doesn't jump several % in minutes is a SAFE instrument to short but shorting highly manipulated penny stocks ..GEEZ

A DISASTER waiting to happen...

 

[rogersjeff7]

Quote from fluttrader:

Shorting penny stocks is 1 of the most dangerous instruments to short.
Do you realize that sooner or later you will NOT be able to cover soon enough due the low liquidity.

With long positions your loss is limited to 100 % , with short positions your loss is UNLIMITED.
Shorting a very liquid instrument like the ES futures that doesn't jump several % in minutes is a SAFE instrument to short but shorting highly manipulated penny stocks ..GEEZ

A DISASTER waiting to happen...

you guys really need to see tim's dvd/blog because he addresses each of those concerns. i'm by no means an expert and i don't really want to speak out of turn, but i will say the liquidity hasn't been a problem for me because i'm only trading penny stocks when they are "in play". KYUS traded 2.7 million shares on friday, i wasn't concerned for an instant that my 5,500 shares would get me in trouble

and from what i have seen so far, manipulation is easier to play off of than macro events

 

[fluttrader]

Quote from rogersjeff7:

tim's whole post is about how he didn't have the patience to wait for today and depsite yesterday's loss, he made a good trade today along with the rest of us.

and cabletrader, there are many partial fills in these stocks, my sell order was executed at $2.57, $2.55, $2.53, $2.51 and $2.50, covering at $2.33, $2.34 and $2.37, i posted my average entry and exit

but i'll never signup for covestor because i don't want to give account access to anybody else

Despite the fact that 2.7 million shares traded that day, you got a lot of partial fills.
2.7 million shares is only about 7000 shares traded each minute, you understand now your partial fills for your 5000 share order ?
Imagine the average price you would get filled when a 100.000 share order hits the market and you try to cover...
You CANNOT know when that 100.000 share hits the market, making it IMPOSSIBLE to get out in time, you are toast , dude...

 

[Bob Rowshan]

Quote from rogersjeff7:

you guys really need to see tim's dvd/blog because he addresses each of those concerns. i'm by no means an expert

This smells bad to me. rogersjeff/timmay is on ET pimping timmays dvd as the satisfied customer "rogersjeff".

I am 110% sure rogersjeff is timmay, and will continue to point out lies as long as they exist. rogersjeff/timmay pretends he is a disciple of timmay, yet does better than him on trades? LMAO. On timmays blog (I am forced to look at it b/c it helps me get to the truth), timmay and 3 sheep all try to trade the same ideas. We were shown a log yesterday of the time and sales of yesterdays stock. If timmay and 3 sheep are all trying to trade it, but a very few amount of shares actually trades, tell me how all these sheep were able to make executions? LMAO

So we have timmay:

1) deleting negative reviews on amazon
2) creating aliases on ET with fantasy trades and posts that all refer you to how great timmay is
3) rogersjeff denying what we all know to be 110% true, that he is timmay
4) rogersjeff/timmay claiming he traded 5,500 shares each way, despte time and sales showing that to be impossible. rogerjeff/timmay unwilling to post a screenshot of the trade to prove what he says is real (obviously b/c the trade is fantasy)
5) rogersjeff/timmay telling this journal how well he did on a trade thursday AFTER the entire alleged trade took place

Even though timmay claims to be transparent, you have to shovel through the BS to get to the truth. And yesterday, the shovelling showed that rogersjeffs fantasy ET trade was total bullspit.

Let the newbie beware, timmay is the furthest thing from honest. If it smells like crap, feels like crap, and looks like crap...it is timmay.

 

[Pension_Admin]

Quote from fluttrader:

Despite the fact that 2.7 million shares traded that day, you got a lot of partial fills.
2.7 million shares is only about 7000 shares traded each minute, you understand now your partial fills for your 5000 share order ?
Imagine the average price you would get filled when a 100.000 share order hits the market and you try to cover...
You CANNOT know when that 100.000 share hits the market, making it IMPOSSIBLE to get out in time, you are toast , dude...

fluttrader,

Thank you for pointing this out. Your advice will prevent disaster from happening to new traders.

You have just save the lives of the people who follow Tim's strategy. Tim and his victims will forever be indebted to you.

Sincerely,

Pension_Admin

 

[cabletrader]

Quote from fluttrader:


With long positions your loss is limited to 100 % , with short positions your loss is UNLIMITED.


Despite the fact that 2.7 million shares traded that day, you got a lot of partial fills.

That's a very good point, and in a volatile situation when everyone is scrambling for the exits trying to cover shorts the risks could be enormous.

So is there any way to perhaps reverse this strategy and Buy instead of Sell, the downside risks like you say are limited. Find a cheap undervalued stock ripe for the pump-'n'-dumpers, buy it, wait for the hype to do it's work and then cover by selling to all those squeezed shorts who by that time are relieved to just get out at any price?

Quote from Bob Rowshan:

timmay and 3 sheep all try to trade the same ideas. We were shown a log yesterday of the time and sales of yesterdays stock. If timmay and 3 sheep are all trying to trade it, but a very few amount of shares actually trades, tell me how all these sheep were able to make executions? LMAO

Let the newbie beware, timmay is the furthest thing from honest. If it smells like crap, feels like crap, and looks like crap...it is timmay.

I agree, something just doesn't quite smell right about this whole thing.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from Bob Rowshan:

Doubtfully.

If you believe that timmay shorted 5,500 shares and made over $1,000 on the trade, the maybe you believe in Goldilocks and the 3 bears too.
If timmay can prove that he actually made + $.18 on 5,500 shares, I will be the first to apologize and send him $100 cash.
Otherwise, i'll guarantee that trade didn't happen as timmay described.

Is that $100 monopoly money, I seem to recall someone else betting you and not getting paid.