Jasper's Last Stand

Quote from Trend Fader:

I hate to break this to you, but the reason why you are breakeven is because your system has no edge. I would advise you to start from scratch, or move on.

Its not like one day you will wake up and your system will start making money consistently.. you are daytrading futures with a simple volatility system , that might have a very small edge but its not enough to make a living.

I know you probably know this already, but i am not gonna chearlead or bullshit you. You are better off getting a full time job and trade part time until you find your way.

I think you created this thread either to have someone tell you how to tweak your system to make money (which is not going to happen), or tell you to never give up and piss away more time, or to have someone like me tell you to wake up.


-- just keeping it real here!

Just really quickly.

You have the makings of a great system.

Record your trades everyday, record the $ made/(loss) as well. Tally them up for the week and see what trend emerges (it's going to be positive).

Start studying risk and money management, so that you'll have a pretty good idea of when to add contracts and how to management them as you add on size.

Keep good records and review them every weekend, your mind will start figuring out a lot of this stuff for you. Keep good records.

The potential in this system is as clear as day to me.

Good trading,

Jimmy Jam
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

Record your trades everyday, record the $ made/(loss) as well. Tally them up for the week and see what trend emerges (it's going to be positive).

Start studying risk and money management, so that you'll have a pretty good idea of when to add contracts and how to management them as you add on size.

I agree with you 100% JimmyJam. If you do this approach Jasper, I'd suggest recording the max. profit potential for each trade too so if you decide to scalp you can figure out an average max. profit to shoot for with each signal.

As I mentioned previously in this thread, I trade a similar system and have attached the tallied results looking at the charts each day. System is currently in a drawdown however. I don't want to get into the details. I'm just posting this to show the results of a very similar system to encourage Jasper and others. I realize one could argue that 3 months of backtesting data does not sufficiently show anything...
 

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Here's the same system but improved by applying a couple filters based on studying the data and attempting to optimize. Could this be curve fit? Sure - time will tell going forward...
 

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Quote from jasper6:

Another slow day so far.

Hi Jasper,

Good on you for starting and continuing with your journal.
Maybe it would be helpful to see next week as an experiment:

- take all the system's signals;
- exit (stopping & reversing) exactly as the system indicates;
- use no discretion;
- focus on a complete week as a performance period, rather than an individual day or indeed string of trades.

While I think there some value in the above, feel free to throw this idea straight out of the window.

All the best,
AM
 
Quote from jasper6:

Another slow day so far.

The day speeded up right quickly on this one.

If you caught the trade, you are doing the process as required. If you didn't you should page back through your trades and see where you've missed the big move previously.

It's going to take a certain type of psychology to trade this system, because 80% of the wins are going to come from 20% of the trades.

Make sure you do the mental preparation before your trading day.

JJ
 

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You might want to think about using a reference point on which to base the direction in which you initiate a trade.

For example:

Using a Woodie's Pivot Point (the main one) as a reference point, take all LONG cross-overs which are ABOVE the Pivot Point and take all SHORT cross-overs which are BELOW.

This will begin to get you focused on seeing the patterns of the market as they unfold and get you out of the mindset that price action is random (it isn't).

So try it out, put a woodie's pivot point on your charts and review the price action for the last couple of weeks or so, i think you'll be pleasantly surprised
***
Otherwise you're just flipping back-and-forth which you actually could make money with, but you would most definitely have to take every flip of the coin, and I don't think you're willing to do that, at least I haven't seen that to be the case in your journal.

Good trading,

JJ
 

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Here's an example of the logic and thinking (examples.xls)

While these trades will not happen everyday, you will certainly get enough opportunities 3 or 4 days out of the week, and you will begin to develop a consistent mindset where you are prepared to take action based on your strategy for trading the markets, using your volatility cross tactic to enter, hold and exit your trades.

Good trading,

Jimmy Jam
 

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Quote from jasper6:

I have been trading since the year 2000.

My introduction to the market was in selling a vertical industry website to a NASDAQ traded company in June, 1999. I received cash and restricted stock - about 50/50. At the time of the sale, the stock was trading just above $20. From June 1999 to March 2000, the stock hit a high of $143. On paper, my net worth topped out at over $2,000,000.

Not knowing anything about the stock market, I couldn't believe how much money could be made! Too bad my main experience in hindsight was at the top of a bubble. Since I didn't know what a costless collar was and didn't protect myself, I didn't sell out until over a million of the paper profits had evaporated (still hurts to think about).

I was hooked on the market, though. When my consulting agreement ran out at the end of 2000, I spent a year reading about 50 books on trading. The beginning of my search for the holy grail.

I started daytrading tech stocks in the Autumn of 2001 and promptly lost $30,000.

I switched to the ES after a year or two and paid even more tuition. When the ER2 came out, I started to trade it since I liked the daily range, the extended moves and (at the time) the lower noise level.

I am now five years down the road and am pretty much a breakeven trader. I still trade one lots. I have studied every indicator and system known to mankind. None of them seem to have worked very well. They are mostly great when the market trends and horrible when it chops.

I have suffered from "triggeritis" on occasion - sometimes lasting for months. I have read "Trading in the Zone" countless times and have the Five Fundamental Truths tacked to the wall.

Bottomline, 2007 will be my "make or break" year. There is only so long that you can live on your savings. So long that you can go without a steady income. I can't even bring myself to think how much income I have lost by trading as opposed to having a job. Over $500K for sure.

But, I like working for myself. I like not commuting, dressing up or playing office politics. I like owning my time and the freedom trading provides.

My goal for 2007 is to work toward $1000 on the average day or $200,000 per year.

I am using Ensign Software for charting after trying nearly everything. They have the best support out there and are constantly making improvements. New releases almost weekly.

I use IB for a broker and for quotes to drive Ensign.

My total monthly outlay, including a broadband cable connection, is under $100. I pay $4.80 RT on trades.

I only trade the ER2. I don't look at anything else. I only use range charts since I like how they look. I use one indicator - a volatility stop (15,3). I trade the volatility flips and use a 1.5 point initial stop. I am still working on better exits, more patience with trades and trying to outguess the market.

I am posting here to try and force more discipline. More discipline to quit discriminating on edges and to let the chart tell me what to do.

I don't bother with TICK, TRIN, news or anything else. The chart is either long or short and that's it.

I use 24 hr data.

I am hoping to add an additional contract for each $10K in equity that I earn. For simplicity's sake, we will assume I am starting with a $10K account and trading one lots. At a 1.5 pt initial stop, this is a 1.5% risk per trade.

I am hoping to make 3-5 trades per day. I have found that the fewer trades I make, the more money I make. Days I have made 8 or more trades are usually the worst. The indicator constantly has you going in the wrong direction.

So there you have it. I don't know if I will post in real-time, but I will trying to upload charts when I can.

Since the system is so simple, it shouldn't be hard for someone to replicate if they are so inclined.

Jasper,

I don't see a plan to take profits here... (which may be the problem) could you elaborate on your exits?

And to filter out some of the bad trades, try only taking trades in the direction of say the 15 minute or 60 minute trends - it will cut your losers in half...

And is your stop too tight?

Thanks,

Paul
 
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