jasinhbca's quest for discipline, knowledge & profits

[Handle123]

This is one of those patterns which money management is key to avoiding losses by either not taking trade or reducing amount of time to show whether it is going to work out more quickly or better to get out fast, as in faster Time Stops. Megaphone Pattern.

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Yesterday was up 28 ticks and finished up just a couple. Didn't know I was up that amount till EOD. Today +36 in first couple hours then finished negative. Had a + 25 day last week that also ended up only + a few.

I need to use more common sense and should use a profit range that I can hit and call it a day. There's a usually a couple days a week were price trends well beyond first couple hours but those usually are obvious early on. Those trend days I can go for a larger target perhaps.

I used to feel compelled to watch/trade the whole session to increase my screen time PA knowledge. Now I think my PA reading skills are good enough to not need to be glued to screen. Probably counter productive.

I think earlier this year I was stopping after up a nice amount. That was more out of fear of giving up profits; becoming more risk averse. Not feeling that now which I suppose is good, still able to pull the trigger, but I do need to take these profits home with me.

 

[Redneck]

Yesterday was up 28 ticks and finished up just a couple. Didn't know I was up that amount till EOD.


Today +36 in first couple hours then finished negative. Had a + 25 day last week that also ended up only + a few.

Seriously..., who the hell cares

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Did you - or did you not..., follow your routine

Did you - or did you not..., follow each trade's plan

Both days..., over the entire time you traded

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After all this time..., still focusing on results

damn.., damn..., damn (beating head on desk)

RN

 

[jas_in_hbca]

You're right and no I made some mistakes on trade management and a couple forced trades.

Re- focusing on process

 

[Handle123]

Well, here I go kicking the milk pail over again. I think it come down to stats, Money Ball, and knowing where a hitter most likely will hit the ball and what kind of pitch. Jas, I just don't know if you get tired and lose concentration, your method most likely don't do well enough in less favorable volume. I find it easier to trade in huge volume but controlled market movement. When the big hedge funds trading and big brokerage they stir up volume and we just want to latch on, but when they go for lunch or play basketball, volume declines and markets get choppy. If you had better stats, am sure it says morning your Michael Jordan then later you Chico Marx.

 

[zbestoch]

Yesterday was up 28 ticks and finished up just a couple. Didn't know I was up that amount till EOD. Today +36 in first couple hours then finished negative. Had a + 25 day last week that also ended up only + a few.

I posted this elsewhere, but you were the one who likely made me think to say it at all, so I'll share it here as well:

There seems to be a lack of awareness amongth those journaling their efforts to become day traders here that the majority of those actually doing this for a consistent profit do in fact only trade the first 2 hours of the Wall Street session (often times only part of that session), most of those are quite pleased to quit after 1-3 trades regardless of the day's result, and then go do something else with their lives. I see so many here reporting profitable mornings but then follow on with the fact that they successfully spent the rest of the day making sure they grind out a loss for the day. Why is that?

I have to wonder how many "struggling" would-be traders are struggling because they are too blind of their own goals to see that they have made it? Let me repeat that: how many "struggling" would-be traders are struggling because they are too blind of their own goals to see that they have made it?

If you start trading crude or whatever it is at whatever your start time is according to your plan, and you see that you are up one, two, three or more ATR's on your time frame, what more do you seriously believe the market might give you that day? Shut it down and go live. The market will be here for you the next morning.

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Thanks ZBE.

I think for a long time I was thinking I needed to log more screen time. Keep putting the hours in. Now I'm realizing that less is likely more as you and Handle have suggested. I'm starting to understand some of the triggers for my discipline issues and certainly fatigue is one of them.

I'm going to reduce my trading hours. Maybe back test, review or do some mental work with the extra time.

thanks, Jas

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Just traded the first 2 1/2 hours in CL today.

I'm going to keep with that schedule. After I commute to office, which gives me a break, i'll take a look at trading last 60-90 minutes if markets are moving and depending on how my focus is.

I'm slowly doing more and more things correctly. Seeing set ups better, taking trades and managing well. The drawdown really effected my confidence and caused me to second guess a lot. Finally getting back to normal.

Trying to talk things out more which keeps me relaxed. But the habit of intently, quietly staring at screen is surprisingly tough to break.

I'm out of town next week. Kinda would prefer to be around to trade but a break to review is ok.
The things I'm doing now are focusing on steps I can take to keep me relaxed and focused. Kinda of trying to understand how I think.

 

[Redneck]

Kinda of trying to understand how I think.

Normal world would call that self centered / self adsorbed / even..., narcissistic

We otoh call that: getting to know your best friend

And get to know him well J - fore he the only one you can truly count on - 100% of the time



RN

 

[Redneck]

When I said that my plan is based on math I don’t mean the results of back testing and a projected win to loss ratio in the future. That is a generalization at best.


I mean that before I even drew up my plan I did things like… for example: look at the math behind being all in, taking Lots off, adding Lots. There are threads that run for years and argue these things to no end… good grief. The critical differences seem to me to be the rules one uses as they apply these strategies. So develop sets of rules… work out the math that results if those rules are applied… and pick the best one. I’m not thinking at that point about the probabilities of win to loss; I’m thinking about a foundation for a strategy… with the identified rules… that has an advantage. Solid math. That gives me confidence.

A plan is built around math. [For example, applying the same rules to all-in, take-off, and add-on might indicate you need 1 win to cover 4 losses with take-off, 1 win to cover 8.6 losses with all-in, and 1 win to cover 14 losses with add-on.] Small changes in rules can make a big difference. Having rules to complicated to be practical in real time is something worth noticing also.


Having solid math to start with, then it is time for all the back testing and other administrative work. Which is important.


BUT, set all the administrative stuff aside when it comes to actually trading. Hire yourself to do a job. You don’t think about the money. You don’t change the plan while you are trading, let the plan change you. Don’t think about the probabilities. Embrace the unknowable and do the plan/process as objectively as you can. On the weekends or at the end of the month you put your administrative hat back on and make any course corrections necessary.

...at least, that is the way I see it now. It seems like a waste of time almost to do all the stat's of back testing, forward testing, sim trading.

Then when I actually start to trade live those things have zero to do with the unique moment in front of me... The odds that trade will do the expected, or that I expect anything at all.

But all that work somehow goes to confidence and development of skill and perspective. The things again that make trading something other than gambling.

Plagiarized from another thread - this a really good one regarding the various phases we go through.., and where we place our focus during that/ each phase

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We work our ass off to create some semblance of "knowing"

Then must completely abandon it when actually trading

Love trading..., love it..., love it..., love it

RN