jasinhbca's quest for discipline, knowledge & profits

I think I'm slowly beginning to see from my review that the problem is my discipline. The discretion part of my trading is not the big issue I thought it was. The mistakes I'm making are things I've discussed in my plan to avoid.

Lack of discipline is leading to lack of confidence and then back to lack of discipline. Son of a bitch !

Trade review is crucial.
 
jas_in_hbca said:
4 yes. I used to get nervous when trades didn't move immediately or i might exit on the first pb. Seeing what that cost me in profits through logging and backtesting made it easier to hold trades.

5 Mostly yes. Sometimes I do grab a quick profits

jas
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Hi there @jas_in_hbca ,

How are you doing? I hope good/profitable.

Just curious about the metrics and nature of your backtesting:

  1. What was N? (the sample size)
  2. What was your win ratio?
  3. What was the model drawdown?
  4. What was your average profit/loss?
  5. Did you backtest manually or using programming?
  6. Was it a multiperiod backtest?

I really would appreciate it if you could provide me with this information, if you dont feel comfortable for whatever reason to post it publicly, then please PM me.

Have a great day,

IWDI.
 
Iwilldoit said:
Hi there @jas_in_hbca ,

How are you doing? I hope good/profitable.

Just curious about the metrics and nature of your backtesting:

  1. What was N? (the sample size)
  2. What was your win ratio?
  3. What was the model drawdown?
  4. What was your average profit/loss?
  5. Did you backtest manually or using programming?
  6. Was it a multiperiod backtest?

I really would appreciate it if you could provide me with this information, if you dont feel comfortable for whatever reason to post it publicly, then please PM me.

Have a great day,

IWDI.
More...

I've done manual back testing and lots of forward testing. That is, using stats from my actual trade entries and tracking my actual PnL to what it should have been per my trade management rules. My actual performance usually under performed my plan management due to my discipline issues. This was a good motivator to stick with exit rules. The big problem for me had been exiting too soon cause trade looked like it was failing or me increasing my target. Sticking with initial stop loss and target always out performed what I was doing on average

My win rate varied from 50-65% from what I recall however my actual results are far from that. Still too many out of plan trades.

Don't have the other info in front of me . Hundreds or a thousand trades logged at different times but a lot of those just basic PnL MAE MFE stop stats

PM me if you want to discuss. My stat keeping is not as good as they should be.
 
jas_in_hbca said:
I've done manual back testing and lots of forward testing. That is, using stats from my actual trade entries and tracking my actual PnL to what it should have been per my trade management rules. My actual performance usually under performed my plan management due to my discipline issues. This was a good motivator to stick with exit rules. The big problem for me had been exiting too soon cause trade looked like it was failing or me increasing my target. Sticking with initial stop loss and target always out performed what I was doing on average

My win rate varied from 50-65% from what I recall however my actual results are far from that. Still too many out of plan trades.

Don't have the other info in front of me . Hundreds or a thousand trades logged at different times but a lot of those just basic PnL MAE MFE stop stats

PM me if you want to discuss. My stat keeping is not as good as they should be.
More...

Jas,

Don't take this the wrong way, but you not had enough pain yet, every couple months are "son of a bitch", you keeping reading your pyscho book, have it memorized quotes and you expect that to touch the subconscious? You going to keep going down till you reach that area where you crawling on the floor with Holy Cow pain, you are way past the system, you are way past the discipline, you are fighting the emotions within you, perhaps you feeling the pain of being successful or pains of possible being a failure, you feeling the raw hurt of who Jas is within. I been there in 1991-1992, all the most horrible emotions coming out, and from there I did better. It not the system or risk, it is just you.

Might be time to take couple months off. Work on you.
 
Handle123 said:
Jas,

Don't take this the wrong way, but you not had enough pain yet, every couple months are "son of a bitch", you keeping reading your pyscho book, have it memorized quotes and you expect that to touch the subconscious? You going to keep going down till you reach that area where you crawling on the floor with Holy Cow pain,

you are way past the system, you are way past the discipline, you are fighting the emotions within you, perhaps you feeling the pain of being successful or pains of possible being a failure, you feeling the raw hurt of who Jas is within.
More...

Lot of truth in this - unfortunately

I've been there..., Slugar is recovering from being there

Not sure it a necessary trip..., but then again...,I'm not sure it isn't - either

Was a necessary one for me

=======================

Simply put - it absolutely necessary we extract our self..., totally out of..., and from - our trading

RN
 
Redneck said:
Lot of truth in this - unfortunately

Simply put - it absolutely necessary we extract our self..., totally out of..., and from - our trading

RN
More...

Some people it shifts quickly, others over time. There was that time I felt that a loss wasn't a loss until you took it, so I'd just keep moving my protective stop bigger and bigger. I have not done that in a long time, but the behavior just gradually faded away. It stopped making sense.

I don't see this so much a discipline/confidence problem as a belief system, or more simply just an idea. Eventually a different idea soaked in as something that worked, where the first idea didn't work... and I eventually stopped in any way seeing moving my stop as an option. I just started paying attention to something else. Like... the idea of remove all thoughts of cumulative P&L while trading making it easier to trade objectively and correctly; or, my edge is limited losses, unlimited gains. Those things make sense.

Getting yourself out of the way may have a lot to do with what you pay attention to.

All the discipline in the world doesn't seem to change most traders behavior. This is related to Handle using/needing hypnosis... discipline doesn't work.

And you can't just whip up confidence.

"Getting yourself out of the way" may mean getting ideas about discipline and confidence out of the way.

------------
I don't know anyone with more discipline than you. And you have the confidence to post what you are really doing. How many people are willing to do that? This is not your problem at all. It is an endless spiral that makes you more analytical (in an unproductive way) and less objective -- because it is not real.

What can you come to believe.... what can you pay attention to...
that will make you less analytical while you are trading,
and result in your being more objective while you are trading?

That will get "you" out of the way? That's what being objective means.
 
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A person can live their entire life (literally birth to death) - and never need to call upon the discipline..., patience..., sameness (routine) it takes to trade successfully

Not once..., not repeatedly..., not ever

…The difference - traders must utilize all of it - with every trade - no exceptions


----The above is one of my favorite RN posts


Sitting here waiting for the open.

I said discipline doesn’t work. Of course I have discipline, but as a trader it is different. The discipline has something to do with how the market works. I’ll have to think more how to say that.

I have confidence in myself, but as a trader I don’t think about that. Douglas says you have to “have absolute confidence in being profitable in an uncertain environment”. My confidence is in the market itself. The stats are there, I’ve done my analysis. I am dumb and dumber as Handle says. The dumber I am (in terms of analysis) once I take a position… the more confident I am…. The happier I am… dumb as a cluck. I know absolutely I’ll be profitable in that uncertain environment. The confidence is not inside myself there, tho of course I have confidence in myself. My confidence is in the ideas of limited negative risk, unlimited positive risk… If the market changes over time and my stats don't work, I can figure that out too.

I might be overstating it, I’m human, absolute confidence I’m working on.

Don’t know that I’m making total sense here, but I think you get the drift.
----
So how do any of us change? In truth most of our behaviors and actions come from our feelings. [Like feeling dumb, liking it (!) and using that feeling to change our behavior.] Our feelings follow our thoughts, our thoughts come out of how we put the world together. Something about how you are putting your trading world together needs to change.

If you take time like Handle suggests, all the time in the world won't matter if the way you put your trading together doesn't change. And that change can happen in moment with a light going on, or over time.
 
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Hooti said:
If you take time like Handle suggests, all the time in the world won't matter if the way you put your trading together doesn't change. And that change can happen in moment with a light going on, or over time.
More...

A downside to stepping away (imo)

Away from something - we can convince our self of literally anything

Only when smack dab faced with it - does reality shine through - to either reinforce what we think..., or kick us square in the ass


RN
 
Hooti said:
Some people it shifts quickly, others over time. There was that time I felt that a loss wasn't a loss until you took it, so I'd just keep moving my protective stop bigger and bigger. I have not done that in a long time, but the behavior just gradually faded away. It stopped making sense.

I don't see this so much a discipline/confidence problem as a belief system, or more simply just an idea. Eventually a different idea soaked in as something that worked, where the first idea didn't work... and I eventually stopped in any way seeing moving my stop as an option.
More...

I have experienced the same. Moving my stop is one example, adding to a loser is another. These days I would never think about adding to a loser - I am flat in no time if it moves against me. But ten years ago I did this all the time, and suffered much pain from it.

The change came gradually, as with all the other bad habits I have had to rid myself of.

H.
 
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