jasinhbca's quest for discipline, knowledge & profits

[jas_in_hbca]

Market seemed very slow and a little hard to read. I did get a discipline reminder slap on the wrist when for some reason , boredom or the let's try this because I can use a close stop, I took a trade out of my plan. So, Trade 4 I won't even discuss other than every ticks counts and I won't purposely lose -1.75 like I did there.

My first trade I believe the PB was not ideal, still an entry though. I went to close the trade before my stop got hit but ended up getting closed before my stop was cancelled so I got filled going short to open. I immediately closed it then said wait that's actually a good entry.

Trades 3 and 5 I may have been a little quick on the exit. Trailing the stop below support was a thought but I didn't want to give up any more of the open profit. Today it was fine but it will need to be watched in the future. Had the markets been stronger and not moving into resistance on the daily charts then trailing a stop would have been a better strategy.

-.50 pt today

#1 Entry long PB /continuation 3640
Stop 38.50 1.50
Target 3646 - 3648 hod

exit 3638.50 -1.50

# 2 Mistake fill -.25

#3 Long PB 3649.75
Stop 3647.25
T 3660-3662 HTF res and channel

Exit DT & TL break +2.25

#4 out of plan trade -1.75

# 5 Long Range break / continuation 3654.25
S 3652.75 1.50
T 3660-3662

Exit LH / TL break (but still above support !)
+1.50

 

[Redneck]

Trade #1

Entry long PB /continuation 3640
Stop 38.50 1.50
Target 3646 - 3648 hod

exit 3638.50 -1.50

Comment

it simply did not work - it happens

Entry – Good
Stop – Good
Target – Good



Trade # 2
Mistake fill -.25


Trade #3
Long PB 3649.75
Stop 3647.25
T 3660-3662 HTF res and channel

Exit DT & TL break +2.25

Comment

This trade worked – but I don’t like it

Went long too early imo

Price at upper part of the range

There was a DT (bar you entered – and the 7:54AM bar)

Previous PA – in this same range – choppy

Imo.., waiting for a RBOU (assuming it occurred) would have been a better signal


Entry – It worked
Stop – Why @ 3637.25
Target – Good



Trade #4
out of plan trade -1.75


Trade # 5
Long Range break / continuation 3654.25
S 3652.75 1.50
T 3660-3662

Exit LH / TL break (but still above support !)
+1.50

Comment

Entry – Good

Stop – Good

Target – How did you come up with this – HOD (aka last swing H) would have been a more reasonable target - imo

============

A big part of successful trading is eliminating the mistakes (yeah I know... I'm stating the painfully obvious)

RN

 

[Huyang]

You’ve id a trade signal…. that signal fail – the trade is no longer valid;
The stop should always be placed just the other side the of signal you’re trading
Placing it any further away – is money being pissed away

We must continuously work diligently.., to keep each loss as small as is reasonable (this is our primary job)

==========================
Aside;
In situations where the trade’s signal is large (such a 1,2,3 reversals) – there will inevitably be an area where price has made / is making
DT/ DB…, or HL / LH
Because the horizontal boundary (zone) has been established / is being respected

Because the move’s direction has been agreed upon – and being supported
So a breach of the DT / DB…, or HL/ LH would invalidate the trade signal
Just the other side is where to place the stop
=================
keep each loss small from the get go

==================
As for moving stops after the trade starts working
I would say – keep your initial stop in place… and improve the trade management piece of each trade plan
RN

RN:
Thanks a lot for your sharing the insight on how to choose a small stop and why. I would like to ask you a question using the example with the yellow line --- same tops of post 788, the stop should be 1tick or 2 ticks above the yellow line? Jas use the break out entry, Would you please help to comment on another possible entry --- limit short 1t or 2ts below the yellow line after the close of the bull bar (exit bar of Jas) with the same stop 2ticks above yellow line? Thanks.

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Stop on trade # 3 was below the bar prior to entry ,which I saw as the start of this move and created a small swing. I figure price can pullback to that area and still be valid. Although realistically if it pulls back that far it better show strength damn quick or I'm out.

Re: target on last trade. Generally, hod/lod/swings are more mental targets for me than place an order target. I want to be in a position to ride it if does break those levels. If it stalls at the mental target i'll get out. My target for the trade was where I'm absolutely getting out (based on HTF)

I've always thought that when my consistency improves i'll increase size and scale out at the swings/lod/hod

Not sure if that's a good strategy but that's the thought process.

 

[Redneck]

Stop on trade # 3 was below the bar prior to entry ,which I saw as the start of this move and created a small swing. I figure price can pullback to that area and still be valid. Although realistically if it pulls back that far it better show strength damn quick or I'm out.

Fair enough

Re: target on last trade. Generally, hod/lod/swings are more mental targets for me than place an order target. I want to be in a position to ride it if does break those levels. If it stalls at the mental target i'll get out. My target for the trade was where I'm absolutely getting out (based on HTF)

I simply did not see how you we're going to manage this one in your trade plan.., and was wondering

btw..., mental is good (long as the mental doesn't change in mid stream to our determent )

Having it in trade plan form is better.... plus it keeps me from guessing what you're thinking - please

Not sure if that's a good strategy but that's the thought process.

Long as it crystal clear to you.... and you can consistently implement it - that is the best strategy

I've always thought that when my consistency improves i'll increase size and scale out at the swings/lod/hod

For now..., let's focus with what we have - for consistency's sake please

RN

 

[Redneck]

RN:
Thanks a lot for your sharing the insight on how to choose a small stop and why. I would like to ask you a question using the example with the yellow line --- same tops of post 788, the stop should be 1tick or 2 ticks above the yellow line? Jas use the break out entry, Would you please help to comment on another possible entry --- limit short 1t or 2ts below the yellow line after the close of the bull bar (exit bar of Jas) with the same stop 2ticks above yellow line? Thanks.

Several thoughts here Huyang

First;

I’m taking what J is doing and commenting on that….

Me suggesting other trades would be trying to fundamentally change what he's doing – I am not going to do that



Next;

That trade busted through 2… of the 3 possible lower risk stops – the next would have been a breach of the range – and way too much loss

By noting the DT.. and price didn't breach it – I was highlighting just how ugly that PA was



Finally;

That DT occurred 1/2 way in that range – iow the 50% level of that range

I never like entering in the center of any range – price can go either way (and usually does - against my position)

Instead I prefer using 50% of a range – as a gauge (method) to judge strength / weakness

Price is testing whether it really wants to resume the move or reverse

==================

Now realize – using a 50% level of a range – is only applicable once price breaks out of that range - which in this trade’s case – price had broke out & down – then pulled back within the rage (for a test) - then resumed the move down

The potential entries (whenever price pulls back (and either up or down) back into a range) = another BO..., LH / HL....price respecting a DMTL / UPMTL..., DT / DB


On the other hand.....


If price in a range… and respecting that range….

Then range trade it (which is a completely different trade) – assuming the range wide enough…,

I would be trading price’s traverse from one boundary to the other (and typically holding through the 50% level)

However..., I would still never enter when price was in the middle of this range (simply too damn risky)

HTH

RN

 

[Huyang]

Several thoughts here Huyang
That trade busted through 2… of the 3 possible lower risk stops – the next would have been a breach of the range – and way too much loss
By noting the DT.. and price didn't breach it – I was highlighting just how ugly that PA was

==================
Now realize – using a 50% level of a range – is only applicable once price breaks out of that range - which in this trade’s case – price had broke out & down – then pulled back within the rage (for a test) - then resumed the move down
The potential entries (whenever price pulls back (and either up or down) back into a range) = another BO..., LH / HL....price respecting a DMTL / UPMTL..., DT / DB

On the other hand.....
If price in a range… and respecting that range….
Then range trade it (which is a completely different trade) – assuming the range wide enough…,
I would be trading price’s traverse from one boundary to the other (and typically holding through the 50% level)

However..., I would still never enter when price was in the middle of this range (simply too damn risky)
HTH
RN

RN: Thanks a lot for your detailed response on small stop (low risk stops) and low risk trading in general using TR as an example (TR break out or TR trading). You have described it very clearly and it is very helpful; the challenge for me becomes how to distinguish high risk and low risk entry and act on it in real time.

 

[Redneck]

the challenge for me becomes how to distinguish high risk and low risk entry and act on it in real time.

Low risk

When the PA clean… so to should the entry signal

When the signal narrow – so too should be the risk

And a breach of that signal – the stop

When the entry signal wide – such as a 123

Pick apart the entry signal and find a low risk stop

Price – by design – will act as if it could go either way

But at some point – it will make clear which way it intends to go

Have the patience to wait till things become clear… then seek out the entry signal

===========================

Conversely;

When the PA dirty – so too will the entry signal be

When the entry signal dirty – the stop is nebulous

And the risk high

Stay away from these trades – take no dirty signals

==============

Side note;

I dare say all valid entry signals (momentum trades not withstanding) are typically accompanied with supporting PA (which include separate supporting entry signals)

Examples

DT to LHs
PB to a DMTL – then LHs
RBOU – a PB test – move resumes with HLs
Bounce off a zone – failed retest

On and on….

========================

As for the ability to act real time - THAT IS every trader's challenge... and why so many fail

The ability to keep a clear head.... read the signals... always act appropriately

Those who can - are successful traders - those who can't - and unwilling to to change - fail - its that simple


And why I keep repeating... and repeating...

Trading is 3-5% skill...., & ..., 95 to 97% mental

Successful trading comes from within - period

Adapt or die

RN

 

[jas_in_hbca]

- 3.00 pts Pre holiday slow threw me off a bit. Called it a day early. Had feeling market would continue to grind higher after my long exit

My notes and then added comments. Maybe my comments save you some time RN; although I'm certainly not assuming I can read your thoughts or have your knowledge

=====================

target based on daily channel at 3665. If can break that then clear to 3675 area based on 15 minute channel possibly 3680 on hourly channel. Older daily resistance from approx 3660 on up


1. long range break 3659.75
Stop 3657.25 2 ticks below the range 2.5
Target 3665 - 3675

exit stopped out -2.50



2 Long Range break 3660.50 (with 2 ticks slippage)
stop 3657.25 3.25
t 3665-3675

Exit FBO – 2.25



3 Long BO, failed FBO
Stop 3658.50 2.50
target 3665-3675

Exit tl take profits +1.75


Comments

1 I don't get this . You bot small range break but right at HOD. Pay the extra tick higher for clean HOD break. In this case you would not have been filled. Cheap insurance !

2 This is choppy meandering price into HOD. Not ideal for a break out entry. Re: Stop. now that you're in give it some room. You exited right back at support and in a range. At this point you don't know if it's a FBO or a test.

3. I like the entry but that's not a TL exit. If it was you would have exited a pt higher. What about your target ? You could have exited there. What is your plan ? Exit at target or ? Is trailing a stop in your plan ?

Overall too many mistakes
Positive side the third entry was one you probably would not have taken in the past so that's good.

If you are going to have a target range or two targets , decide before the trade ( ie what has to happen ) for you to hold for the bigger target

 

[Huyang]

Low risk

When the PA clean… so to should the entry signal
When the signal narrow – so too should be the risk
And a breach of that signal – the stop
When the entry signal wide – such as a 123
Pick apart the entry signal and find a low risk stop
Price – by design – will act as if it could go either way
But at some point – it will make clear which way it intends to go
Have the patience to wait till things become clear… then seek out the entry signal
===========================

Conversely;
When the PA dirty – so too will the entry signal be
When the entry signal dirty – the stop is nebulous
And the risk high
Stay away from these trades – take no dirty signals
==============

Side note;
I dare say all valid entry signals (momentum trades not withstanding) are typically accompanied with supporting PA (which include separate supporting entry signals)
Examples
DT to LHs
PB to a DMTL – then LHs
RBOU – a PB test – move resumes with HLs
Bounce off a zone – failed retest
On and on….
========================

As for the ability to act real time - THAT IS every trader's challenge... and why so many fail
The ability to keep a clear head.... read the signals... always act appropriately
Those who can - are successful traders - those who can't - and unwilling to to change - fail - its that simple

And why I keep repeating... and repeating...
Trading is 3-5% skill...., & ..., 95 to 97% mental
Successful trading comes from within - period
Adapt or die
RN

RN: Thanks a lot for sharing your valuable insights. I did try to practice what you described today in real time; hopefully by doing it again and again i could make it my own. Would you please help to comment my trades of today if you could find time? It is not urgent. I understand you are very busy and am asking your help to comment only today's trades at this time. Considering it is Jas's journal, i have posted my trades of today in my journal. Hope you donot mind to visit the last page of my journal. Thank you very much.