Quote from jas_in_hbca:
1 trade, -10. Rollover week choppy. This might be a borderline set up. Technically I can't fault it except the pullback wasn't real "clean". Two reasons to exit earlier than I did but stayed with the structure stop.
Unless anybody sees anything terribly wrong with this i'll put in the category of they can't all be winners.
The environment at the time of your trade was wide range.
Approximate range low was 93.80 and approximate range high was 94.25.
The spike through the range high during your 9:52 bar was a failure; it met with immediate selling, so clearly not a signal to look for longs. In fact, the selling took it right down to the range low.
If the trend is your friend till it ends, then the range contains price pretty nice.
Just as I've learned that a trend is intact during any pullback until a key S/R level breaks with some conviction and that level then acts as the opposite S/R, I also assume that a range is intact until it breaks with some conviction, price pulls back to the breakout zone and price then turns back in the direction of the breakout from that level or close to it.
I don't see anything particularly wrong with selling a pullback to the previous 1min support/price turn between 93.95 and 93.97 (which also happens to be the 1-min 20EMA that I use for this purpose), but keep in mind that there's a 5-min containment bar with a high of 94.01 (10:00 your time) and once this level breaks during your 10:15 bar, that's a signal for me to wait for clarity in a range like this. So I'd be looking to scratch a short position if price couldn't break 93.93 downside, and begin watching for a long entry to position for an excursion to the range high.
I didn't get long until price closed above the 1min 20EMA and that level began acting as support (around 10:35 your time). Once that happens then the natural behavior of the range environment indicates that price is
more likely than not to try for that 94.25 range high again.
It looks like you took a short position
after the 5-min level broke upside. If I wasn't already short, that upside break would be a signal for me to wait before taking a position.
Again, nothing inherently wrong with the trade and the risk is very small. It's just that in a range there's no team that's in control of the game.