jasinhbca's quest for discipline, knowledge & profits

[jas_in_hbca]

Quote from Redneck:




Now if you want to track something really worth wild – track each trade and whether you followed plan / how well you followed plan

Take care of each trade – the day(s) / weeks / months / years / career – take care of them selves

I'm doing it the lazy way as part of my trade review. Then noted on my trade review worksheet. I think I may have to step it up and keep actual stats. Thank you !


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-24 ticks for the week, about - $340.

Thanks to Nkhoi for pointing out rollover weeks can be difficult I was a bit more cautious this week. I think that helped keep me in the right frame of mind. Still it did seem like a more challenging week.


One thing I know that happens to me is my confidence fades after small drawdowns and I question whether i'm trading my set ups or just guessing on entries. Well, the nice thing is after hours i'm looking at charts and seeing good entry spots and then I turn on the trade markers and pretty often i'm trading right where I thought I should have. My reads are better than it feels like in real time.

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I saw a youtube by Futurestrader71 about expectancy. Now I've added a column to my excel worksheet that calcs my current expectancy. I've done about 350 trades this year and now I can see how it trends. Not sure how meaningful it will be buts it's interesting and keeps me focused I suppose on the long term.

I do need to get my expectancy higher. It will have to come from a combination of higher win rate and/or higher average wins. My average loss in CL is 6 ticks and I don't think I can get that lower. Possibly a larger average loss would increase my win rate but I'm not going to review that yet.

I'm reviewing past trades , first the ones with MFE >20 to look for commonalities then i'll review some losses and look for commonalities. So far i'm guessing avoiding obvious chop and counter trend trades too soon will be what can possibly lead to better results.

But as I said before - my reads are often better than I expected. I think at this point my expectancy can be improved through the psych side of it. And also as I've said before that's where weaknesses are and my focus should be. I'll need to come up with a better trade review and tracking system at a minimum.

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One thing that occurred to me the other day is that when I first started this journal I was trying to limit myself to only 3 or 4 trades a day. this was supposed to get me to focus on only 'the best 'set ups and prevent overtrading. I still sense that 'don't overtrade' mindset. It's not helpful anymore. Clearly I don't want to be click-happy but if the set up is there take it and don't wait for a better one. What is a better one anyway ? It's a trade or it isn't. We'll see how that goes..

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Only 2 times on the quiet time journal this week. i'm riding a bike now for exercise. Those are additional times I use for reflective thought.

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Down again last week. Don't have the exact numbers in front of me but it was more than I would have liked. Rather more than it should have been.

I've re -done my review process so i'm tracking in excel my execution and mental errors as well as results by set up type.

Most of my poor performance results from missing trades then getting frustrated and making mistakes. I'm also perceiving during the day I'm making mistakes then I go back and review and realize they were in-plan entries that just didn't work. But the perception I was making more mistakes than I actually did becomes a little destabilizing.

I really need to get a grip 'cause i'm beginning to slip into that mindset of 'just need one big day to get my confidence back" . That's bullshit and harmful and I know it but it's there.

I plan on journaling in my private trade journal every day going forward.

I know i'm frustrated that I haven't performed to my expectations I had of myself of where I would be at this point in time. And frankly , i'm a little embarrassed, anonymous or not, of my public lack of progress.

The goal is to get to where none of it matters. To just execute without worry or frustration.

This is my learning curve. Slow as it is. I will keep at it til I get it.


That's my vent. I fell a bit better.

 

[Redneck]

Quote from jas_in_hbca:

The goal is to get to where none of it matters. To just execute without worry or frustration.

None of it does matter…, except; that we follow/ followed our plan on each and every trade

But let’s face it.., we’re human…, we are going to care...

So best we direct our caring/ focus toward doing our job to the absolute best of our ability

Quote from jas_in_hbca:

i'm tracking my execution and mental errors as well as results by set up type.

Most of my poor performance results from missing trades then getting frustrated and making mistakes.

I'm also perceiving during the day I'm making mistakes then I go back and review and realize they were in-plan entries that just didn't work.

But the perception I was making more mistakes than I actually did becomes a little destabilizing.

I really need to get a grip 'cause i'm beginning to slip into that mindset of 'just need one big day to get my confidence back" . That's bullshit and harmful and I know it but it's there.

This is why…, if you’d log in real-time – for each trade – whether you followed your plan or not

You’d have real-time feedback

You’d have solid base of knowing you’re following your plan

You would not be messing with perceiving/ thinking/ feeling you are/ or are not

You could make any necessary adjustments real-time to ensure you are - and have a real-time feedback loop to verify the change(s) took

And it would slow you down and give you time to mentally prepare for the next trade

Yeah it’ll slow down your trading

Yeah in some instances you’ll miss trades (entries) – as you’ll be focused on writing about / critiquing your last trade

But fact is, one of the most destructive actions we can perform is to jump from one trade to the next – out of emotion (any emotion)

I've done that

And I'm here to tell ya.... In this business less is truly more – especially when that less is applied stone cold and deliberately

Quote from jas_in_hbca:

I really need to get a grip 'cause i'm beginning to slip into that mindset of 'just need one big day to get my confidence back" . That's bullshit and harmful and I know it but it's there.

Just in case there resides even the slightest bit of doubt within you

Yes; it is bullshit..., Yes; it is harmful..., and it is also delusional

To your credit though, you are acknowledging its existence

Quote from jas_in_hbca:

frankly , i'm a little embarrassed, anonymous or not, of my public lack of progress.

That's my vent. I fell a bit better.

As to feeling embarrassed.., mkt doesn't care… and none of us matter

Besides any trader who says they've not done stupid stuff – or stuff they've never been embarrassed about while trading – is a damn liar


However..., realize that feeling should never be ignored/ minimized…

It is you telling yourself something ain’t right – best listen and heed it

keep on truckin

RN

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from jas_in_hbca:

Most of my poor performance results from missing trades then getting frustrated and making mistakes.

Jas, I noticed this same issue as well. If I hesitated and missed a nice move as a result, I had a tendency to want to get what I missed and this tendency usually involved trying to manufacture a setup where there was none.

When I'd analyze my trading day, I'd feel ridiculous for hesitating on a perfectly valid setup because it "felt" a little scary at the right edge, yet have no problem then jumping into a trade without a signal.

After reading Trading in the Zone for the 3rd or 4th time, I finally started to get more aggressive at placing orders as soon as the setup/signal occurred. This resulted in more profits and eventually started a positive feedback loop.

Quote from Redneck:

This is why…, if you’d log in real-time – for each trade – whether you followed your plan or not

You’d have real-time feedback

You’d have solid base of knowing you’re following your plan

You would not be messing with perceiving/ thinking/ feeling you are/ or are not

You could make any necessary adjustments real-time to ensure you are - and have a real-time feedback loop to verify the change(s) took

And it would slow you down and give you time to mentally prepare for the next trade

Yeah it’ll slow down your trading

Yeah in some instances you’ll miss trades (entries) – as you’ll be focused on writing about / critiquing your last trade

But fact is, one of the most destructive actions we can perform is to jump from one trade to the next – out of emotion (any emotion)

I've done that

And I'm here to tell ya.... In this business less is truly more – especially when that less is applied stone cold and deliberately

I still journal in real time, mainly about trades not taken because the trades I take for the most part are planned.

Then there are times when my hand puts on a trade that my brain is unaware of at the time and as soon the brain discovers this it gives me several reasons why I'm an idiot. Recently these intuitive trades are almost all good. I think I'm gradually transitioning into that advanced phase of trader development Mark Douglas talks about.

Or possibly I'm an idiot on a lucky streak

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Thank you RN,

I had not thought of logging my trades during the session. I always do my review after EOD. Today I did log during the session. I've got codes for all my set ups, exits and mistakes so it's actually not difficult to do after each trade. Today was slow though. I'll still do post market review but I like the idea of the instant feedback and forced break.

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Thank you too ND,

That's very helpful to hear you had the same problem of missing trades. I feel better. I'll keep re-reading Douglas. I like the idea of journaling missed trades during the day as well. I may start doing that.

BTW, I missed a couple trades I think I you took yesterday. That 123 low reversal then a bit later the small flag continuation. I was eyeing both of them. The flag I thought i'd give a few more bars to base. D'oh.

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Awhile back I talked about what part of me (mentally) will have to change. I wasn't sure what it was. Now, I believe what has to change is the way I hold on to my mistakes and let it influence my next trades. It's easier said than done. I've put myself on the couch so to speak and realize I've always been overly critical of my mistakes. Going back to High School basketball days I remember being very critical of my play and practice. There has to be a balance between pushing oneself to excel and causing stress that impedes the desired result.

I'm reading a book now on managing the inner critic. Funny thing is I consider myself a pretty easy going guy and I like to think I'm very patient and not critical of others.

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Back to sim next week.

I've been in a large drawdown giving back a lot of the profits I've slowly accumulated this year. I have a typical retail traders small account so the absolute dollar loss is not significant. But my goal is to get consistent so I can trade a larger account and generate substantial profits. From that standpoint the drawdown is a big set back. I suppose better to learn the lessons now rather than later.

So what have I learned ? I've been focusing on the mental game and tracking my errors. Good. My reading of context and my set ups needs more work. I can fix that; may take more time than I would have liked. I've overcompensated for prior weeks missing trades by this past week forcing some trades. I'm logging /reviewing trades almost always immediately after. That's a good change.

Strangely I don't feel frustrated by this drawdown. Well, not as frustrated as I would expect. Honestly I feel more like a curious observer . How can you have so many losing trades ? Will I be able to get back on track ? Where's the trader I was becoming ?

re: this observer not caring as much feeling. Am I getting detachment from losses or i'm I doing that subconscious fear of change thing which is pushing me back to my comfort level of inconsistent trader ? Should I be caring more ? No way of knowing right now.

I fully expect sim will only last a week or two. I still feel I have enough knowledge and experience at this point to be trading consistently. Then again I thought Sept was going to be my break out month.

The past few days it seemed there were lots of mid bar closes in CL. I'm not sure I've noticed that too much in the past. Made for lots of chop. Just a reminder to watch those bars.

And speaking of bars. Next wed. I leave for my annual cabo guys trip. Usually takes me a few days to recover from that. So probably a couple weeks until my next update. I think a break will definitely help my trading.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from jas_in_hbca:

The past few days it seemed there were lots of mid bar closes in CL. I'm not sure I've noticed that too much in the past. Made for lots of chop. Just a reminder to watch those bars.

Mid bar closes, barb wire, chop...these are descriptions of price action that defines a range in a smaller time frame (bar interval).

Most initial breaks out of a range fail.

This may be helpful for sitting out chop or trading it if you like scalping ranges.

 

[Redneck]

First;

Safe and enjoyable trip

Next;

Is it my method... or me;

Admittedly the line is at times extremely blurred…, but if we do a little critical thinking maybe it becomes easier to identify the culprit

======================

I interpret (and admittedly I could be wrong) that you’re remaining in losing trades / not exiting.., OR… not exiting and reversing

Because you've entered at a point where it’s unclear when / where that trade will/ has fail(ed)

Or

You’re simply not managing

iow

========================

Could it be that you’re entering almost dead nuts in the middle of a range on your trading TF – which leads to unclear stops / inability to manage properly… AND directly to NOD’s post

Or

Are you simply entering irresponsibly – then managing the same (both counter to our goal of making $)

“Is it my method... or me”

Something to think through

===============================

I’ll stop with the postulating at this point until you confirm / deny either above scenario to be valid or not

Wouldn't want you inadvertently heading off on a wild goose chase



Drink a cold one for me

RN

 

[Handle123]

Long ago I discovered for ME, that my brain will do whatever it takes to do the opposite of what I really wanted in life and trading. This was huge for me. So each morning I felt sleepy, I wanted to get back to sleep, and told myself that if I get three losing trades, I could go back to sleep. I started to take all my signals, and had less and less losing trading days. It's funny I only remembered that now, am sure many of us forget little things we tried long ago.

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Thanks ND.

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Thanks RN.

Over the past two weeks I've gone from making mental mistakes of not taking trades and not trading in a calm state of mind to this week taking poor set ups. Poor set ups is probably being generous, more likely set ups that are not in my plan. Since my set ups require proper context or discretion it can seem the correct entry at the time.
I was also feeling flat out confused and out of synch.

An example from Friday. Price made a HOD failed breakout then traded a couple minutes below the breakout level. Sometimes that can still lead to continuation but this was not showing much strength. I went long a break of a prior bar high thinking IF it can make another HOD then it should continue. Stopped out, then on the deeper pullback I entered long again. Stopped out. Not long ago I would have recognized the failed breakout and talked it out and been patient enough to look for the short opportunity. The 123 short set ups was quick but quite clear.

As you said it's sometimes hard to differentiate me from the method. I think lately it's entering irresponsibly and some of holding a trade too long when it's clear it's not doing what it should be doing.

The other day I was really concerned that I had lost any skills I may have had. After some review this weekend I'm back thinking 'oh yeah, that's how you do it. that's not so hard'. Still, I'll go sim just to be sure.

I think that's answers your question but if not let me know. thanks again for getting me to think it through. (Actually I already had but i'd rather get your input and do it twice than miss something)

Thanks for the well wishes I will most certainly drink a cold one or three for you !