jasinhbca's quest for discipline, knowledge & profits

[jas_in_hbca]

Thank you USRX. I've tried al brooks and just can't seem to get through it. I prefer Lance Beggs' website and materials. But one of these days I will give Al another try.

Thanks for your time and comments on my trades.

Been awhile since I've posted a chart so here's today.

-12 ticks.

edit: that's +12 for the day. not a loss

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from jas_in_hbca:

The honest truth (and why do anything, in trading especially, without total self-honesty) is that I have a plan that I do not have complete confidence in.

Most of my set ups depend on context of trends, reversals, trendlines etc and I have not been able to articulate this context into an If:Then objective set of rules. I've read that some traders do have strict rules and I really don't understand how they're able to do it. I'm still in the discretionary/ rule based type trading.

As my trade reviews and screen time grows i expect to be able to refine my set ups so that there will be less discretion and more specifics.

My plan is too loose with exit rules. I've had ingrained in me the 'let profits run' adage. I suspect this is why I often overstay trades. This can not continue.

I wasn't able to put discretion to good use, and found that more precise definitions gave me the "net" I needed so I could take the leap when a setup appeared. I had to define the context really precisely or I found myself hesitating too much and skipping trades or, like you, overstaying trades where it made sense to have a specific hard target.

Let me know if you ever want help with the "refining" process.

 

[Redneck]

Quote from jas_in_hbca:

Thank you Rn.

The honest truth (and why do anything, in trading especially, without total self-honesty) is that I have a plan that I do not have complete confidence in.

Most of my set ups depend on context of trends, reversals, trendlines etc and I have not been able to articulate this context into an If:Then objective set of rules. I've read that some traders do have strict rules and I really don't understand how they're able to do it. I'm still in the discretionary/ rule based type trading.

As my trade reviews and screen time grows i expect to be able to refine my set ups so that there will be less discretion and more specifics.

My plan is too loose with exit rules. I've had ingrained in me the 'let profits run' adage. I suspect this is why I often overstay trades. This can not continue.

My lack of confidence is directly related to my weak plan and my results reflect that. My approach to building my plan is based on my belief that market experience is necessary to find what works and refine the plan that fits me.

So I guess bottom line, i'm not shooting from the hip but i'm not trading an ideal plan as well.

Thanks, RN. As always I very much appreciate your questions and comments.

After seeing the subsequent responses, here are my thoughts

I get what you’re saying…

But I would say; our goal is to be able to see/ recognize / and act upon this stuff in real time…, as its developing

And execute with clear and unwavering action

======================

Yes you could pick it up after considerable time sitting in front of a chart….

Yes you could pick it up while on sim, while under a "lesser" amount of pressure

However the big issue with either of these is this;

For every valid set up, you may see two…, three, or more invalid set ups, act on those – and essentially wipe out all the good learning (ingraining) that’s taken place

Possibly even ingrain bad setups & behavior

I call this – "the vicious loop"…, we all get into it at times – and by damn we must find a way to break it – else it becomes pure living hell

====================================

Aside;

I could go way deep into how our brain learns…, and how it doesn’t know negative from shinola

That for every event…, especially events accompanied by an emotion – it becomes ingrained into us at a deep level – that once ingrained takes considerable effort to overcome - but I won’t

There are volumes written on how we / our brains learn - and I'm not an "expert"

======================================

So what about this;

How about going back in time…, and using your trading charts – find / identify your various criteria (context of trends if you will) – then write out what you see in plain, simple words… in YOUR words

Who cares if you’re not using the “industry vocabulary” or if anyone else can understand what you’re describing – you will

And because you understand it – you'll be more likely to trust / follow it

And as you’re only ingraining good signals – you’re more apt to focus and act upon the same

(I believe the industry calls this back testing – how bout we’ll simply call it; seeing this stuff over and over enough times that it becomes second nature recognizing it in real time)

=============================

Bottom line – you must get the good stuff ingrained – so you’ll look for it/ unquestionably follow it

While doing this – you must also insulate yourself from the bad stuff – so it doesn't impede your learning/ completely F you up

A clear head, filled with, and searching for simple straight forward concepts - ready and willing to react


=============================

Btw, please never lose sight of this fact;

It’s all about buyers & sellers – and the pressure being exerted/ exhausted

Who has the control / is the other side vying for that control…, and if so how hard

I included this so you know what you're looking for
==============================

NOD offered to help – please don’t take her offer lightly

Something to ponder Sir

Also hope this all makes sense

RN

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from jas_in_hbca:

... I've had ingrained in me the 'let profits run' adage. ...

ingrain is the key word, that means you have trained for it for so long that it's part of you. Pick a single step you want to train for then keep doing it until it becomes you, repeat until you ingrain all necessary steps .

 

[Matcha]

Hi, Jasinhbca
I am not qualified to give advice but I thought I might share some of my learning experience with you so you don't feel alone here.
I am experiencing the same thing with you every once a while. every time I think I know and good at something then the profit just disappeared and I began to do something crazy. I guess the key is not to lose your shirt and most importantly don't despair and beat yourself too hard. By keep emotions in check and back testing forward testing I believe we can reach our goal.
I will suggest you listen to and really digest RN, Nodoji and Handle 123's comments. I copy and paste handle's comment in the word file and often read them while i am working on my back testing.

So far I have narrowed down my trading hours to only the first 2 hours in the day, this has already made dramatic changes in the win ratio and profit margin. Because I truly now understand in ES the afternoon trading and morning trading required different method and trade management. In the moring the market tends to trend well. also, please do back test a time stop in CL with the method you are using. when each bars unfold the risk management needs to change accordingly. if the time is up, you are out, then market goes in your favor 30 pts for example, then you should be fine with it too. learn to ACCEPT. trade with your method and believe in it, if you have doubts, go back to your backtesting stats!

Below are a couple of keys points from Handle's comments 2 years ago and I am still testing like crazy, 2000-3000 sample sizes for each setup should be a must. Right now I only finished 500 samples sizes. And I had to go back often times and re look. Each day, the anxiety just fade a little through back testing and keep training my mind to think in probabilities! I hope this helps you evaluate the method in details too.

What is your time stop?
What is the avg maxi target in each setup?
How much to risk and why?
How many tics profitable to move your protective stop to breakeven?
How many bars does it take if price stays at or near your entry price to get out?
Are you using a set target?
What can change a set target?
If not using a set target, what must happen to get out?
If you are doing retracements, are your protective stops the same?
Are there any times when it is prudent to risk less than normal on a trade?
Do you change targets if market goes against your trade from the start?
Are your targets the same all day long or less at lunch time?
As price goes deeper in trend, is risk lowered?
What would negate a signal?

Handle123: I hope you don't mind me copying your words here.

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Quote from NoDoji:

I wasn't able to put discretion to good use, and found that more precise definitions gave me the "net" I needed so I could take the leap when a setup appeared. I had to define the context really precisely or I found myself hesitating too much and skipping trades or, like you, overstaying trades where it made sense to have a specific hard target.

Let me know if you ever want help with the "refining" process.

Thanks ND ! I would love to bounce some ideas off you and hear any suggestions you might have. I'll send you a PM in the next couple days.

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Thanks RN, another print worthy post. I have done the trade review note taking tasks before and have chart examples of my set ups; but you know what ? I need to do more of it , dig deeper and refine it further still as you suggest.

I understand the brain to have a negative assessment bias. As you know, from an evolutionary stand point it's worked and prevented us from taking unnecessary risks. I assume this is why I can look at a set up and find enough faults in it to pass or hesitate. I need to review and find the 2 or 3 items that bring my focus to what is right about the trade.

Yes, it's all about the bulls and bears.

Quote from Redneck:

After seeing the subsequent responses, here are my thoughts

I get what you’re saying…

But I would say; our goal is to be able to see/ recognize / and act upon this stuff in real time…, as its developing

And execute with clear and unwavering action

======================

Yes you could pick it up after considerable time sitting in front of a chart….

Yes you could pick it up while on sim, while under a "lesser" amount of pressure

However the big issue with either of these is this;

For every valid set up, you may see two…, three, or more invalid set ups, act on those – and essentially wipe out all the good learning (ingraining) that’s taken place

Possibly even ingrain bad setups & behavior

I call this – "the vicious loop"…, we all get into it at times – and by damn we must find a way to break it – else it becomes pure living hell

====================================

Aside;

I could go way deep into how our brain learns…, and how it doesn’t know negative from shinola

That for every event…, especially events accompanied by an emotion – it becomes ingrained into us at a deep level – that once ingrained takes considerable effort to overcome - but I won’t

There are volumes written on how we / our brains learn - and I'm not an "expert"

======================================

So what about this;

How about going back in time…, and using your trading charts – find / identify your various criteria (context of trends if you will) – then write out what you see in plain, simple words… in YOUR words

Who cares if you’re not using the “industry vocabulary” or if anyone else can understand what you’re describing – you will

And because you understand it – you'll be more likely to trust / follow it

And as you’re only ingraining good signals – you’re more apt to focus and act upon the same

(I believe the industry calls this back testing – how bout we’ll simply call it; seeing this stuff over and over enough times that it becomes second nature recognizing it in real time)

=============================

Bottom line – you must get the good stuff ingrained – so you’ll look for it/ unquestionably follow it

While doing this – you must also insulate yourself from the bad stuff – so it doesn't impede your learning/ completely F you up

A clear head, filled with, and searching for simple straight forward concepts - ready and willing to react


=============================

Btw, please never lose sight of this fact;

It’s all about buyers & sellers – and the pressure being exerted/ exhausted

Who has the control / is the other side vying for that control…, and if so how hard

I included this so you know what you're looking for
==============================

NOD offered to help – please don’t take her offer lightly

Something to ponder Sir

Also hope this all makes sense

RN

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Quote from nkhoi:

ingrain is the key word, that means you have trained for it for so long that it's part of you. Pick a single step you want to train for then keep doing it until it becomes you, repeat until you ingrain all necessary steps .

Thanks, nkhoi. Good idea.

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Thanks Matcha. I appreciate your encouragement and advice. Handle is always good.

post anytime and good trading to you !

 

[jas_in_hbca]

+9 ticks for the week, up a few bucks after commish.

Trade management/ exits are my weakness. It's really quite amazing the decent entries I get then completely mismanage. I was in on several trades this week that turned into huge winners that I exited prematurely and missed the entire moves.

Fortunately, I feel the fix is fairly simple. Part of it is a revision of the trading plan exit rules. Which means actually having some. The other part will be sticking to it.

I very often exit on normal pullbacks or have a stop too close or move stop up too quickly. I've written a trade management worksheet with steps I need to do after entry. I can't trust myself to do it unless it's written down and in front of me. My trade plan actually does have a fair amount written on exits within it's 15+ pages but a one page step by step procedure is what my often suddenly scared trader's mind needs. For now, the two management procedures are for With Trend and Counter Trend trades. (I'm also being more selective on taking counter trend trades. RN, I've been reviewing old trades and finding enough commonalities that are actionable)

I use a tight stop which mostly works well. However in some situations increasing it based upon market structure will need to be done and it's already in my plan. That's step one. Next is expect and anticipate where the PB will go. There's more but those alone will make a difference. Better /clearer exits rules will be there and i'll be refining it this weekend.


The other thing I've done is hold some trades too long. In reviewing logical exit areas of past trades that I failed to take I see how taking the base hits can add significantly to my overall profits. Taking profits of 10-20 when that's all the market is likely going to give need to be taken. I still need to finish reviewing all my year to date trades .

Basically, better rules and in front of me so I can follow them.

Today , I did a good job of NOT trading. Tired. (late band practice last night; other nights i'm always making sure I get enough sleep)
I know, and it's now written in my pre-trade day review, that if I don't get enough sleep or exercise I trade badly.

So today I allowed myself the last hour to take one trade if it was valid. Took it, exited early but felt I was following my plan. Then was done. As I said above I still need to refine the written exits but I have a good idea of what I want them to be depending on market context and I think I can get the rules so I catch these type moves ...