jasinhbca's quest for discipline, knowledge & profits

[moonmist]

Secondly, volume profile (which can be used with any kind of chart, time, volume, range, etc) shows the low volume "unfair value" areas where price might reverse or bust right through and high volume "fair value" areas where price is more likely to consolidate and chop (avoid). This is quite valuable by providing insight into multiple areas of support and resistance based on where prices have traded before (either the previous day, current session, whatever). Combined with price context of the current session it's fairly accurate where price may stall, reverse, or breakthrough. VP is less effective in trending days when it comes to the reversal aspect, but in range bound days it's highly effective. I would say that the "pauseability" or potential pullback levels are directly predictable with volume profile regardless of day type, though.

Hi i960,

You seems to be doing a lot of volume analysis. Do you study VPOC ? If you do, under what conditions will you consider it as potential support or resistance ?

Thanks.

 

[jas_in_hbca]

There are interesting ways to maneuver in chop. Feel free to drop me a line if you want to "talk chop" sometime.

Thanks D, Once I get my head straight again I'll do that. I'll start making some notes on chop. I've got ideas about how I should trade it but so far the strategy has been to wait it out.

==============

Very narrow range today. The frustration the last couple days has been that I'm not executing properly. The losses haven't bothered me as much as knowing it's me not trading the method with discipline. My mistakes drive me crazy and I'm holding on to that frustration. Not the correct mindset. Having to refocus on forgiving myself, letting go of inner critic etc.

NQ was moving nicely today. Good market when it does move. I haven't watched it too closely prior to today but will start. After CL closed and since I had been watching NQ throughout day I took 2 trades in NQ. The set ups were there , nothing forced. Entered with 2 cars and scaled out. Main focus will be CL but I figure at some point VIX will pick up and NQ will offer good opportunities.

CL -23 ticks

NQ +13.25 points

 

[jas_in_hbca]

That was a rough week. Friday +9 ticks in CL, + 3 NQ pts

For the week -102 CL ticks. + 16.25 NQ Pts. Only consolation is I can say I've had worse weeks.

More importantly than PnL ; what the Hell happened ? Been asking myself that all week. It's possible still transitioning back into trading after being on vacation. I think the bigger issue was stress management. I'm not focusing on the NOW. I've been thinking about how can I make more money, what happens if volatility continues to decline, how will I make enough ticks then, will I ever be able to do this full time ? It was unnecessary pressure I was putting on myself. Plus there was been some work stress and just general life stress. It all played out with me forcing trades. Then my confidence in myself and my methods became shaken.

I don't think i've discussed the confidence issue too much before. Usually my thoughts have been toward knowing the stats provide an edge, being focused and consistent (which all instill confidence too) But the importance of coming into the day with a positive mindset and confidence can make a huge difference in properly executing the plan.

Toward the end of the week I started to relax. This happens (fortunately not often) were I get stressed and finally I just say to myself " my god lighten up things are not that bad". Getting some cardio exercise by jogging really helps too.

Knowing that most of the losses were my fault by taking out of plan trades actually makes me feel better. Just need to get back to more patience.

I've mentioned Aldo Lagrutta's quote before : " Success does not bring happiness. Happiness brings success" . I'm working on relaxing and doing some enjoyable things this weekend. Like putting up new drywall on the ceiling now that the plumbers fixed the water leak.

Doing some review today and tomorrow and will be ready to trade, and wait patiently, Monday.

====

RN, haven't seen you around ET much lately. Hopefully you got to do something fun !

 

[i960]

I can completely echo your concerns above. This week was also losing for me. Frustrating were the trades where entry/execution was mucked for whatever reason but direction was right. More frustrating were the forced / crap trades I was taking I shouldn't have been taking. Sometimes one looks back afterwards and ask "why the hell did I keep doing that?"

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Thanks for sharing that i960. Trading can be lonely and I often think the mistakes I make are only happening to me. We're human and they happen to everybody.

If you have insights as to why you were forcing your trades I'd be interested in hearing if you want to share.

Sometimes one looks back afterwards and ask "why the hell did I keep doing that?"

Yes, this was driving me crazy. Then I was telling myself to be professional and let it go, which wasn't happening.

good trading to you next week !

 

[Redneck]

Ahh J..., what in the hell am I going to do with you

up one week..., down the next..., up the following week..., down the next..., vacation a week..., return - wheels fall off

knowing the stats provide an edge,

No..., your actions - which create the stats - provide the edge

Knowing that most of the losses were my fault by taking out of plan trades actually makes me feel better

Seriously - your doing a piss poor job - makes you feel better

I'd be spitting nails

But the importance of coming into the day with a positive mindset and confidence can make a huge difference in properly executing the plan.

Agree with this wholeheartedly - BUT!!!

When one is undermining their self - no way confidence.., nor even a positive mindset can exist

And we're deluding our self if we think it can / does / or is

=====================

Tomorrow afternoon - back to trading 101 - strictly by the numbers..., strictly by our plan

We'll get our self in the proper mindset

==============

Monday - we'll do our damn job - nothing more / nothing less

Next week is a short week

Our goal - string together two good weeks - and I don't care if they net positive..., or negative

We're going to break the loop..., we're going to trade our plan - nothing more..., nothing less

====================

what happens if volatility continues to decline, how will I make enough ticks then, will I ever be able to do this full time ?

What if our wive's quit loving us tomorrow..., what if the sun stops shining..., what if we get hit by a jet airliner

Control that which you can control - YOU

Senseless and useless to worry about that which we cannot control

And most importantly - we are traders..., we adapt

Mkt dies off then worry - until then - do your job

Summer is historically a low volatility time of year - okay

Plus there was been some work stress and just general life stress.

We always..., always..., always - check our self before entering the arena

We good to go - cool - proceed on

We not good to go - fuck it - take a break

We get paid for our performance - period

We not able to perform - for whatever reason - step back and take a break

Nothing good will ever come from forcing our self - absolutely nothing

Rather - only crap get ingrained into us..., bad habits..., bad actions..., bad results

It was unnecessary pressure I was putting on myself.

No shit

It all played out with me forcing trades.

Then my confidence in myself and my methods became shaken.

What else could we expect to happen

What else could the results have been

Set our self up for failure - we damn well will - every time

========================

RN, haven't seen you around ET much lately. Hopefully you got to do something fun !

I took a break away from here and chilled out

Why - because I told myself I needed one

Trading is no different

================

Yes..., I am chewing your ass

But.., it also hurts my heart to see this backsliding

It time to mature into a trader..., it time to consistently make good decisions..., it time to take on the responsibility of trading..., it damn well time to consistently control your actions when trading

You have a plan - follow it

If you don't like your plan - change it - then follow it

Making shit (trades) up = is random trading

We don't do random

RN

 

[Redneck]

Recall Monday's are a bitch

A Monday..., during the summer..., right before a holiday - will undoubtedly be an uber bitch

So be it

=====================

This is what we will prepare for tomorrow J..., and this is exactly what we will do next week

=====================



Same ole.., same ole J



Let's do our job today

Early on as possible - identify the environment - on your TTF (chop / range/ trend) and trade within it - and keep on it like stink on shit


Nothing fancy (made up)..., no BS - iow stick to each plan

See Ya this afternoon

RN

 

[i960]

Unless a really good opportunity presents itself you might even consider just watching things on Monday. With the whole Greek saga going on things might be quite volatile. Volatility is a good thing for trading but not if its bad directionless volatility.

 

[Redneck]

Great suggestion I960

Unless conditions to making money exist - why bother

There no valor in hanging our ass out on the line for no reason

This gig is only about making money..., and protecting capital - first

RN

 

[jas_in_hbca]

Seriously - your doing a piss poor job - makes you feel better

I'd be spitting nails

I makes me feel better because I realize my method is fine. All I need to do is get back to more patient, relaxed , trading. That is entirely possible. Coming up with a new plan because perhaps market is changing is not necessary. I have everything I need to be successful now. Maybe that makes more sense.

Am I spitting nails ? Yes and no. I'm trying not to because I've found that kind of motivation or reaction doesn't work for me. Took me a long while to realize that. But yes, I've certainly had conversations with myself and expect much more of me than how I just performed.


As for the rest of your post ; agreed.

I can tell you it's becoming less about watching the PnL. It's sinking in. The disappointment at the end of the day when seeing needless losses because of my poor discipline can be like daggers. That "why did I do that' is what I want to move away from. Executing the plan, win or lose, is the reward. The profits will come.

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Yes, short week coming up. Extra caution, extra patience.

Thanks.

And thanks i960