i'm not interested in peso and as you know- i'm not into economics,but imo japan is doing exact same thing as usa. and so far-with more or less similar outcome.they(japan gvt) saying out loud about their goals-to create an inflation no matter what.nikkei is simply reflecting that. OP was asking when he will see stronger yen? when they start tightening their policy and raise the rates. i don't this happening any time soon. just like in usa.
Japanese inflation rising
- Thread starter Nighthawk
- Start date
i'm not interested in peso and as you know- i'm not into economics,but imo japan is doing exact same thing as usa. and so far-with more or less similar outcome.they(japan gvt) saying out loud about their goals-to create an inflation no matter what.nikkei is simply reflecting that. OP was asking when he will see stronger yen? when they start tightening their policy and raise the rates. i don't this happening any time soon. just like in usa.
Huh? Firstly, what do you know about the behaviour of Japanese institutional money? Secondly, like I said, the BoJ is buying whatever institutional, retail or funny money is selling, and they are only expected to get more aggressive (especially next year when the consumption tax hike will likely push inflation to 3%).
And yes, the BoJ is effectively throwing money out the window. That's the point of Abenomics' first arrow.
Are you familiar w/Google? And yes, short yen, long assets (Nikkei, property, etc) this has been the trade since last year.
http://quote.tse.or.jp/tse/qsearch.exe?F=listing/Ereitlist
The rise in CPI is due to higher energy costs due to depreciating yen. This cost push inflation does not contribute to GDP growth as people just pay more for the same items, not buy more. This is hardly a positive development from a macro perspective.
This doesn't have anything to do with me or my shop.
And, of course, I can name you the 4 largest Japanese pension funds. GPIF is by far the biggest, followed by Local Govt Officials, which is another public sector one. The largest private ones are Mitsubish, Nissei Life, Dai-ichi Life and Sumitomo Life.
And, again, in this particular case, the sellers of JGBs don't matter. The buyer is there, "your size is my size"-style, and they're only likely to get more aggressive.
No, this is incorrect. The BoJ's preferred measures of core inflation (either the ex Fresh Food or the ex Energy and Food) have been rising steadily. In fact it's the core measures that have surprised to the upside this time.
I owe you a bottle. PM me and I will shoot it over
Actually, this site has a full overview: http://www.ijapicap.com/blog/the-behemoths-gpif-pfa-maas/
Anyway, I second you assertion that BOJ will be even more aggressively buying. They claim since the start they do not attend to monetize government debt. A more aggressive step would terminate their credibility forever - although they couldn´t care less as the YEN would be terminated, too (that´s their primary goal).
Meanwhile, the weak YEN has serious implications for Japan´s competitors mainly in the car industry.
Korea, Germany, France and Italy are not amused about almost 30%-50% YEN debasement...
Don't worry about them bottles...Quote from Nighthawk:
I owe you a bottle. PM me and I will shoot it over
Actually, this site has a full overview: http://www.ijapicap.com/blog/the-behemoths-gpif-pfa-maas/
Strictly speaking, the list on this site isn't just pension funds. Specifically, Yucho (the Post Bank) isn't really a pension fund, although they do own a lot of JGBs. But then so do the megabanks.
Yep, agreed... In the case of the BoJ, I am a firm believer that they DO, in fact, want to monetize govt debt, in order to generate inflation. Especially, if the other two arrows of Abenomics don't deliver quite as much as expected. In fact, in 2014, given the negative impact of the consumption tax on the economy, it's almost certain that the BoJ will go "nucular".
India has highest inflation now. They should invade China.