Is the Japanese market leading or lagging?
Japanese bull market over
- Thread starter GlobalFinancier
- Start date
Personally I think it will be a 3-6 month rolling correction in the context of a multi-year bull market. Japan has had a fabulous run of over 100 per cent from the lows, and small caps have more than tripled on average - so a reasonable correction is totally par for the course. Whether it will stop at 14500 or 12000 I dont know, but in 3-6 months time the re-entry point should be much more clear. Then I expect a move up to 20000 over the next couple of years.
Remember, Japan hit a 2 decade low back in 2003. It is still less than half its 1989 level. It is emerging from an on-off 13 year depression. Recoveries from calamities of that magnitude usually last a bit longer than 3 years. After the Depression, the Dow didnt have a proper bear market until the late 1960s. It took 25 years from the 1973-74 collapse before we got another secular bear market in the West. Japan has had its once in a generation washout, and IMO the right plan is to look for when to buy, not sell, each time a correction comes along.
Remember, Japan hit a 2 decade low back in 2003. It is still less than half its 1989 level. It is emerging from an on-off 13 year depression. Recoveries from calamities of that magnitude usually last a bit longer than 3 years. After the Depression, the Dow didnt have a proper bear market until the late 1960s. It took 25 years from the 1973-74 collapse before we got another secular bear market in the West. Japan has had its once in a generation washout, and IMO the right plan is to look for when to buy, not sell, each time a correction comes along.
Japan is very vulnerable to high oil prices so I wouldn't be surprised if the recent run-up in oil prices contributed to the negative sentiment.
I couldn't agree more. Besides, most long term bull markets are characterised by aggressive shakeouts along the way to convince people the bull market is over.
Me, I want to get long Japan, but I wait for a long term buy opportunity. Could take several more months yet.
In my view, this Bull market has only just begun and it will last several years more years.
There are many sceptics still out there to be the [wall of] worryers who have yet to come in. Brokers will reposition Japan totally i.e will cease all talk of deflation and find some more positive theme than "recovery" to broke. Don't know what it will be but it will emerge. It is a big market that can take global portfolio reallocations, but paradoxically, still has tight free floats. A thin market can go a long way when global funds move.
Yikes:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/new...F608-4BB0-8D58-95377D8CBCCD}&siteid=bigcharts
10:55pm 01/18/06
Exec dead in apparent suicide involved w/ Livedoor -- AP (LVDRF) By Ruth Mantell
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Police said a securities executive allegedly involved in deals with a company at the heart of a burgeoning Tokyo investment scandal that has roiled Japanese markets was found dead in an apparent suicide, according to a published report. The body, believed to be that of Hideaki Noguchi, vice president of H.S. Securities Co., was found Wednesday in a hotel, the Associated Press reported. H.S. Securities was among the companies recently raided by prosecutors in connection with a probe of internet company Livedoor (LVDRF) , according to the report.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/new...F608-4BB0-8D58-95377D8CBCCD}&siteid=bigcharts
10:55pm 01/18/06
Exec dead in apparent suicide involved w/ Livedoor -- AP (LVDRF) By Ruth Mantell
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Police said a securities executive allegedly involved in deals with a company at the heart of a burgeoning Tokyo investment scandal that has roiled Japanese markets was found dead in an apparent suicide, according to a published report. The body, believed to be that of Hideaki Noguchi, vice president of H.S. Securities Co., was found Wednesday in a hotel, the Associated Press reported. H.S. Securities was among the companies recently raided by prosecutors in connection with a probe of internet company Livedoor (LVDRF) , according to the report.
Oil prices is only an issue once a week. That's just bullshit news they keep on feeding you every time they run out of excuses. They're always crying, "wolf," but only during selective times when they feel like it. Every dumb parrot reporter writes about that like it's some new threat every other week, and the sheep swallow it.
Japan sure wasn't vulnerable to high oil prices during the run up. But suddenly it is. Oh, then on today's major rally in japan, oil prices weren't that important again. It'll probably be a critical issue again before it become a non-issue again.
exactly. name me a bull market that didn't have its ups and downs.
Japan down 2% today.
Keep bearish outlook.
Yesterday, when I was looking at some futures site, there was this ad "The World's Second Economy is rising again, trade Nikkei 225 futures"(or something equivalent of that.)
Time to SHORT.
The bull market in M&A/LBOs a few decades back halted when one company was unsuccessful in takeover of another company(Alchemy of Finance)
Keep bearish outlook.
Yesterday, when I was looking at some futures site, there was this ad "The World's Second Economy is rising again, trade Nikkei 225 futures"(or something equivalent of that.)
Time to SHORT.
The bull market in M&A/LBOs a few decades back halted when one company was unsuccessful in takeover of another company(Alchemy of Finance)