Japan Spirals into Bankruptcy?

US versus Japan 2 year yield spread:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.USJPN2:IND

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.USJPN2:IND
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.USJPN2:IND

There is a fairly good correlation between this yield spread and USD/JPY.

Then again, because Japanese bond yields don't move by as much as US bond yields, the chart is also similar to that of a US 2 year note yield.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG2YR:IND
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=USGG2YR:IND
 
A guy from the Orient told me a long time back that Japan has been putting wealth away for centuries and it's a huge amount now. It's controlled by the Emperor and he never uses it for anything other than taking care of old people... I've never seen any correlating story about that but it could be the truth and it could be the overlooked factor in the current reasoning...
 
Quote from Eight:

A guy from the Orient told me a long time back that Japan has been putting wealth away for centuries and it's a huge amount now. It's controlled by the Emperor and he never uses it for anything other than taking care of old people... I've never seen any correlating story about that but it could be the truth and it could be the overlooked factor in the current reasoning...
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The only thing that is a "huge amount" is the amount of debt owed by the Japanese govt to holders of its bonds.

For the moment, this is not an issue because Japanese investors are happy to hold these pieces of paper.

But when the savings rate drops below zero, the Japanese govt will need to sell these bonds to foreign investors, which could cause yields to rise. This in turn would make debt servicing difficult, and in the opinion of Kyle Bass and other intelligent observers, the Keynesian endgame for that country.
 
Quote from Eight:
A guy from the Orient told me a long time back that Japan has been putting wealth away for centuries and it's a huge amount now. It's controlled by the Emperor and he never uses it for anything other than taking care of old people... I've never seen any correlating story about that but it could be the truth and it could be the overlooked factor in the current reasoning...
More...
The Emperor? A guy from the Orient? You gotta be kidding me, surely?
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

The Emperor? A guy from the Orient? You gotta be kidding me, surely?
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Hi Martinghoul,

Thanks for your contributions on this thread, and in particular, this chart:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3020388
showing US versus Japan yield spreads.

I have since found these charts on Bloomberg:

Yield spread charts (US versus Japan)
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.USJPN2:IND
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.USJPN10:IND

2 year yield charts
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GJGB2:IND
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG2YR:IND

10 year yield charts
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GJGB10:IND
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR:IND

I am wondering if you could do me another favour?

A chart of the Japanese 2 year-10 year yield spread?

I found the US equivalent on Bloomberg:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=USYC2Y10:IND

but I cannot find the same for Japan.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Here you go
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Thanks for your help Martinghoul.

Probably the main thing that I noticed from the chart is that a move (of about 18 bps) above the April 2010 highs at about 125 bps would be to levels not seen since 2006.

Whereas a move of 18 bps higher in the 10-year JGB would be to only about 1.50%, much further away from "5 year high yield" levels.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GJGB2:IND
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GJGB10:IND
 
Quote from m22au:
Thanks for your help Martinghoul.

Probably the main thing that I noticed from the chart is that a move (of about 18 bps) above the April 2010 highs at about 125 bps would be to levels not seen since 2006.

Whereas a move of 18 bps higher in the 10-year JGB would be to only about 1.50%, much further away from "5 year high yield" levels.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GJGB2:IND
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GJGB10:IND
More...
I guess what you're saying is that the yen curve is, historically, sorta steep. Much of that is a result of Kyle Bass-like peeps betting on the collapse.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

I guess what you're saying is that the yen curve is, historically, sorta steep. Much of that is a result of Kyle Bass-like peeps betting on the collapse.
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Yes you're right, my comment did relate to the steepness of the JGB curve.

From all the bond (yield) charts I've looked at, the one with the best correlation to USD/JPY is the US versus Japan 2 year yield spread. (My preferred way to play the "Japan story" is to buy USD/JPY. Very small position long at 83.68, currently underwater by almost 1%).

However I'm also trying to look at Japan by itself, for things such as the steepness of the 2s/10s.

The move in the US versus Japan 2 year spread (and therefore USD/JPY) is largely driven by moves in the US 2 year yield, because the Japanese 2 year yield doesn't move as much.

However I can envisage a time / possibility when the US versus Japan 2 year yield spread contracts (likely relating to risk aversion), however the Japanese 10 year sells off, due to supply issues.

This steepening of the Japanese curve would provide an indication that the "Kyle Bass playbook" was happening as expected. This is particularly true if the sell off in the Japanese 10 year occurred at the same time as the US versus Japan 10 year spread narrowing (ie US 10 year not selling off by as much as 10 year JGB).
 
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