All of that doublespeak aside, let's see how it works out.
Japan QE and FX trading
- Thread starter noblehawk
- Start date
All of that doublespeak aside, let's see how it works out.
Given your post count, I am surprised you don't understand the basic concept that prices usually go up before they go down.
Anyway, there are idiots still shorting jpy. They think they are getting on the trend. The bankers are giving them more rope to play. The big jpy rise relative to eur and aud is still in the pipelines. Can't really say if the bankers are going to use the BS fed speech later today as a vehicle to carry jpy higher. It remains a possibility because the bankers rarely let a weekend past without giving some people the needed soul searching thinking time.
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I understand it just fine. I'm simply pointing out the hubris you felt the need to put out in response to my original post, and how it turned out to not work out as you said.
I will agree that the yen looks very stretched. But with Kuroda coming out and essentially daring the market to bluff him, it's a difficult bet to make. The man seems completely and totally dedicated to trashing the Japanese economy.
I never said the timing won't slip. But it remains an easy bet. JPY will rise. Not sure how some guy trashing the japanese econmy has anything to do with it. JPY will rise because the bankers want it to rise. Looks to me they are leaving the big rise for monday, while sneaking in a small rise before today's close.
Ah, forgive me. I thought we were referring to market moves outside of conspiracy theories. I apologize for trying to be rational in the discussion. Carry on.
I guess we'll see how "they" move it on Monday.
I am an active stock trader. I never trust the fundamental as believe stock is easy to be manipulated. So I just trade with the stock trend, meaning shorting when it goes down, long when it goes up.
When it comes to FX, I was new to this market. At beginning I believed a little bit that FX market is too big to be manipulated.So I started as a long term investor and built my big short position from 109 one month ago.But after watching it just up to 105 within 4 days! I just realized the FX market is no difference with stock market. Maybe from long term it goes with the fundamental direction, but from short term it is so easy to go against the true economy. Because it can go too far and too long time against the true fundamental direction. It doesnot make sense to be an investor.
So i decide to be a trader too in FX. Meaning short it when it goes down, long when it goes up.Even though it is true that Bank of Japan is destroying the economy, but for short term it is very possible the JPY can rise again, and rise big, and wipe out all the short position.
When it comes to FX, I was new to this market. At beginning I believed a little bit that FX market is too big to be manipulated.So I started as a long term investor and built my big short position from 109 one month ago.But after watching it just up to 105 within 4 days! I just realized the FX market is no difference with stock market. Maybe from long term it goes with the fundamental direction, but from short term it is so easy to go against the true economy. Because it can go too far and too long time against the true fundamental direction. It doesnot make sense to be an investor.
So i decide to be a trader too in FX. Meaning short it when it goes down, long when it goes up.Even though it is true that Bank of Japan is destroying the economy, but for short term it is very possible the JPY can rise again, and rise big, and wipe out all the short position.
But there is still some difference between stock market and FX. As stock, it can go up or down 10% or 20% easily within several minutes. But price movement range of FX is very narrow, if totally trade with the trend in FX, the capital will be "consume" because of the narrow range. So when trade in FX, still need the investor's view, and often trade "against" the trend,because you believe. I think FX trading is the combination of active trader and short term investor.Always need to switch between the 2 roles.
And why it will arise before it falls again? just my personal thought, one reason is: It will maximize the profit for powerful institution group. For example: if JPY down from 110 to 130 straightly, the profit is only 20. But if it down to 120,then go back to 110, then go down to 120 again, then go down to 130, see, more profit.
I'll add JPY/TRY to the big rise.