Japan Now Ruling Currency Prices

Quote from eternalfuture:

GamalRuach,

A letter 'from a friend', eh?

:D

Here's my opinion about usd/jpy...

Despite recent heavy intervention in usd/jpy, the result is far from what I expected. Hey, we're still below 115.00 here!

Anybody around here who remember the way back then when the BoJ heavily intervened around 120.00? In the end it ain't going up, instead, it plunged to 102.00.

Successful intervention?

However, this time around it's not the same thing. Way back then, the U.S. administration didn't want the buck to be weak. Now, they want the buck to be weak, especially against Asian currencies.

Solo intervention won't succeed. I prefer to stay out of usd/jpy, because it's manipulated.

Holding on short usd/jpy is not good. Holding on long usd/jpy is not good either. Staying away from it is a better choice.

In time, the yen will regain the lost power. Maybe it's book-closing month, so that the yen is deliberately weakened to create a more profitable financial positions for Japanese companies.

We'll see who's going to win a fight.

Sam, just because someone says something, he/she is right. Rennie's opinion may be right, but also may be wrong.

Cheers!
More...
Hey, Andre! So good of you to post!

Actually it's "a letter to a friend." Heh...

Thanks for substantiating that USD/JPY IS manipulated. You are right, unless you have a high risk tolerance, it is probably better to stay away from USD/JPY.

On the other hand, if you have a several hundred range you can comfortably float in, it is a great pair to scalp, as I have been finding out lately. Once I got a fix on the probable ranges, I scalp short and close every trade in profit.

The other thing that has changed with the pair since the intervention you mention is that Japan is prohibited from being the cause of "brutal currency moves."

This point was agreed upon by G-7 last meeting and not changed by any subsequent "G" meetings thereafter.

Therefore, a 700 point move looks very suspicious, wouldn't you say?

Any more and Japan could very well put themselves under the global currency regulatory body's spotlight.

Hence, you will notice that it is having a very difficult time making it below 112.50 and even higher to 111.50 - which it has not seen in over a week!

Me thinketh that when the manipulation is no longer needed the pair will regain a semblance to where it was before this latest USD rally.

Which rally basically just gave the BOJ at least 600 points in their favor that they didn't need to do ANY intervention to get the yen to that level. That was just a little "gift." Short term though.

By the way, I don't know who "Rennie" is.

I would like to know what you think about something...

If Bush did not go into Iraq, and would have not stayed there as he is doing, would the terrorist attack in Madrid Spain have occurred?

GSR
 
Here's your Robert RENNIE

From Bloomberg:

Yen May Rise

"The only economy pumping out regular surprisingly good news is Japan,'' said Robert Rennie, currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp. "The market is being manipulated by Japan. It's driving the whole currency market.''

Unless you can tolerate some "Intolerable Cruelty", you should stay away from USD/JPY.

There's no one can restrict the BoJ from intervening. The G7 statements could be interpreted as: "Go ahead and intervene, as long as you think the price violates the fundamentals."

Like what Snow said about his hidden "weak dollar" agenda, "It's our money, and it's YOUR problem".

That goes with Japan, too. You don't like BoJ policy? That's YOUR problem, not BoJ's.

Cheers!
 
Here's a tremendous news for yen bulls, including Sam a.k.a. GamalRuach.

On Monday, Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that some central bank (BoJ) sources said that the BoJ is considering of scaling back the usd/jpy intervention after the end of March. They seem to aim other area for focus, such as interest rates and price trend (deflation/inflation).

Scaling back doesn't mean to terminate.

Well, for Sam, this ought to be a news to celebrate!

USD/JPY plunged around 150 pips on the news, and climbed back to where it started before Tuesday it falls back again.

Last time it's around the lower half of 109s.

No wonder this thread hasn't been updated by Sam. He must've been so ecstatic.

Good luck, good trade!

Cheers!

:D
 
March 15 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose to the strongest against the
dollar in more than a week after Japan's Nikkei Financial Daily said
the Bank of Japan may scale back sales of its currency to protect exporters.


Unnamed central bank officials told Nikkei they expect the BOJ to
``walk away from large-scale'' yen sales by the March 31 end of
Japan's fiscal year. The central bank has tried to stem the yen's
rise during the last year so that Japanese goods don't become too
expensive for U.S. buyers.

``There's no reason for them to continue to buy'' dollars, said
Chris Melendez, president of Tempest Asset Management, a currency
hedge fund in Irvine, California. By the end of March, ``all of the
exporters will already have booked their profits.''

At 2:16 p.m. in New York the yen strengthened to 110.41 per dollar
from 110.79 late Friday, and touched 109.18 after the Nikkei story.
It pared the gains on traders' speculation the Bank of Japan sold
yen for dollars as the yen surged. A Japanese finance ministry
representative in New York declined to comment.

``They've been back in,'' said Grant Wilson, a yen trader in
Pittsburgh at Mellon Financial Corp., which manages about $612
billion. The central bank ``ramped it all the way'' back above 110 yen.

The BOJ, which acts for the finance ministry in the currency market,
sold 10.5 trillion yen ($94.4 billion) in the two months ended Feb.
25, more than half of the annual record amount spent last year, to
keep the yen from gaining and hurting exports.
 
Quote from eternalfuture:

Here's a tremendous news for yen bulls, including Sam a.k.a. GamalRuach.

On Monday, Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that some central bank (BoJ) sources said that the BoJ is considering of scaling back the usd/jpy intervention after the end of March. They seem to aim other area for focus, such as interest rates and price trend (deflation/inflation).

Scaling back doesn't mean to terminate.

Well, for Sam, this ought to be a news to celebrate!

USD/JPY plunged around 150 pips on the news, and climbed back to where it started before Tuesday it falls back again.

Last time it's around the lower half of 109s.

No wonder this thread hasn't been updated by Sam. He must've been so ecstatic.

Good luck, good trade!

Cheers!

:D
More...
Right, Andre, good eyes!

I picked up the 100+ points with shorts - many times over again.

The USD/JPY pair is ideal for short term short direction scalping from here out.

I'm closing over 60 trades a day on the pair short now - all in profit.

Yee Hah! (translation: Good trade!)

Sam
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

I took $500k out of the Yen today.
More...
trade-ya1: Wow!

wow wow wow!

good work!

You said shorting USD/JPY was a good trade, huh!

Don't leave now, the party's just beginning.

It is said that when traders look to see what is down there they no longer see Japan at all - the price is expected to go to 100.00.

HA!

This indicates that the price is where it is at now mainly due to psychological factors, nothing else.

I'm closing 100s of trades now - the worse drawdown has been less than 30 points.

Sam
 
Keep calm, gentlemen...

Usually, just when you think you're absolutely right and convinced, things turn against you.

Keep cautious.

It's not end of March yet...
 
Quote from eternalfuture:

Keep calm, gentlemen...

Usually, just when you think you're absolutely right and convinced, things turn against you.

Keep cautious.

It's not end of March yet...
More...
Right on, EF. I don't think it will go to 100 by the end of the month. It may not go there until it has some major fluctuations and Japan/China has time to try to play out the card they may have up their sleeve.

Saham
 
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