Japan has fallen victim to the Keynesian scam

[Martinghoul]

And to the argument regarding part-time vs. full time employees and demographics?

There are large secular trends, undoubtedly... As I mentioned in my previous post, I don't see any significant movement in the part-time statistics in the past couple of years. I can offer you the charts on that, but, more broadly, I am not really sure what we're arguing about here. I don't think I ever disagreed about the structural long-term trajectory of the country. I also said, in one of my early posts, that Abenomics isn't guaranteed to work and there are all sorts of risks (which are increasing, especially recently). So let's see what happens...

He just supports central banking everywhere and anywhere. Big Krugman fan, probably.

I am not a fan of Krugman. I do support the idea of central banking. The central banks' efforts, like many things in life, are good in moderation. I worry about Kuroda, since it appears that he's now potentially pushing the boundaries.

 

[Martinghoul]

Please explain to us where the money is going if not ending up in peoples' pockets? How are they gonna pay for rising sales taxes and higher cost of all consumables? Oh wages will increase as well if inflation will ever pick up? How so? Competition from China and rest of Asia is fierce. Japan is not a locked-up country anymore it was before. Cars are not assembled in Nagoya anymore but Thailand or elsewhere while most parts are manufactured in China. Please explain how jobs can remain competitive in Japan while wages increase. And if you do not believe wages increase then how are people gonna pay for rising costs of living? Heck, please explain one single silver lining because we aside you just do not see it.

I thought we're done talking, you and I?

 

[Tsing Tao]

There are large secular trends, undoubtedly... As I mentioned in my previous post, I don't see any significant movement in the part-time statistics in the past couple of years. I can offer you the charts on that, but, more broadly, I am not really sure what we're arguing about here. I don't think I ever disagreed about the structural long-term trajectory of the country. I also said, in one of my early posts, that Abenomics isn't guaranteed to work and there are all sorts of risks (which are increasing, especially recently). So let's see what happens...

I am not a fan of Krugman. I do support the idea of central banking. The central banks' efforts, like many things in life, are good in moderation. I worry about Kuroda, since it appears that he's now potentially pushing the boundaries.

This is refreshing and quite a different tone than your posts in the early part of this thread. For someone like yourself to feel Kuroda is "pushing the boundaries" means he must be really, really far gone by now.

 

[Martinghoul]

This is refreshing and quite a different tone than your posts in the early part of this thread. For someone like yourself to feel Kuroda is "pushing the boundaries" means he must be really, really far gone by now.

The part about Kuroda, you mean? Like I said, I think he now believes that he just needs to rock the boat as hard as he can. Obviously, rocking the boat hard is a risky strategy. I guess he must think that doing something, even if it's risky, is better than nothing, given Japan's situation.

As to the rest of what I said, I don't think it's any different to what I said in the beginning of the discussion.

 

[Tsing Tao]

The part about Kuroda, you mean? Like I said, I think he now believes that he just needs to rock the boat as hard as he can. Obviously, rocking the boat hard is a risky strategy. I guess he must think that doing something, even if it's risky, is better than nothing, given Japan's situation.

As to the rest of what I said, I don't think it's any different to what I said in the beginning of the discussion.

It's quite different. Now you're more of a "this is getting out of hand" whereas before you were going on the whole "unmitigated success" phrase that is so much fun to throw around each time Japan is slammed.

 

[Martinghoul]

It's quite different. Now you're more of a "this is getting out of hand" whereas before you were going on the whole "unmitigated success" phrase that is so much fun to throw around each time Japan is slammed.

I was talking about Abenomics, which is supposed to be more than just Kuroda. However, it is, indeed, a bit different, now that Kuroda has decided to go quite a bit more "nucular". I am concerned that the risk of it getting out of hand are now higher.

As to Abenomics being an "unmitigated success thus far", I am certainly willing to downgrade my expectations, when/if more specific evidence arrives. Like I said before, there always were and will be all sorts of risks and pitfalls. It could very well be that this is yet another in a long string of failed attempts at reform.

 

[Tsing Tao]

I was talking about Abenomics, which is supposed to be more than just Kuroda. However, it is, indeed, a bit different, now that Kuroda has decided to go quite a bit more "nucular". I am concerned that the risk of it getting out of hand are now higher.

As to Abenomics being an "unmitigated success thus far", I am certainly willing to downgrade my expectations, when/if more specific evidence arrives. Like I said before, there always were and will be all sorts of risks and pitfalls. It could very well be that this is yet another in a long string of failed attempts at reform.

just get those cats ready.

 

[volpunter]

then you are not looking at the statistics that clearly indicate the huge shift by large corporates from full-time jobs to part-time employment. Are you blind or just ignorant? Instead of minding rhetoric and how people talk maybe you could take a minute and look at the numbers. Japan has a huge labor problem (way too large percentage of part-time labor vs full employment, lack of female participation especially in professional jobs, unpaid overtime, and several others), much more serious than in most other developed economies. The problem again here is that large Inc. has free reign, boundaries and limits set by the legislative or executive are all but absent. Please take a look and then tell us again that you still do not see huge shifts away from full-time employment to part time employment. And please contrast the numbers with those seen in the US, Canada, Australia, HK, China, Germany, Scandinavia,...(fill in the blanks).

http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2014-05-30/japanese-job-market-shifts-to-part-time.html

http://www.businessweek.com/article...ight-wage-discrimination-in-part-time-economy (p.s.: I had the pleasure to listen into several of GS's Ms.Matsui speeches and they were very inspiring)

http://www.japanesestudies.org.uk/articles/2008/Ishiguro.html

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...l/dark-force-targets-youth-jobs/#.VH1FZTGUc_8

There are large secular trends, undoubtedly... As I mentioned in my previous post, I don't see any significant movement in the part-time statistics in the past couple of years. I can offer you the charts on that, but, more broadly, I am not really sure what we're arguing about here. I don't think I ever disagreed about the structural long-term trajectory of the country. I also said, in one of my early posts, that Abenomics isn't guaranteed to work and there are all sorts of risks (which are increasing, especially recently). So let's see what happens...

I am not a fan of Krugman. I do support the idea of central banking. The central banks' efforts, like many things in life, are good in moderation. I worry about Kuroda, since it appears that he's now potentially pushing the boundaries.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Abenomics FTW!


Japanese Workers See Wages Drop for 16th Month on Inflation
By James Mayger Dec 2, 2014 12:31 AM ET



Japanese wages adjusted for inflation dropped for a sixteenth straight month as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces an election focused on his efforts to spur economic growth.

Earning declined 2.8 percent in October from a year earlier, the labor ministry said today, following data last week showing households cut spending for a seventh month.

Abe’s call for companies to use their cash holdings on salaries and investment has been partially met, with capital spending among manufacturers rising while wages change little. He faces voters on Dec. 14 with an economy that fell into recession following a sales-tax increase and opposition parties highlighting the difficulties of low-income earners.

“With the effect of the sales tax hike, I don’t see real wages rising in the financial year through April,” said Toru Suehiro, an economist at Mizuho Securities Co. “People will be asking themselves whether they feel better off, and there probably aren’t that many who think the economy has got better.”

Before adjusting for inflation, average monthly pay in October rose 0.5 percent from a year earlier to 267,935 yen ($2,260).

Large Japanese companies will raise winter bonuses by 5.8 percent this year, according to the preliminary results of a survey by the Keidanren business lobby group. Abe said yesterday that Keidanren has promised to lift pay next year.

To contact the reporter on this story: James Mayger in Tokyo at jmayger@bloomberg.net

 

[volpunter]

Here’s to the people who called USD/JPY hitting 120

The first name the comes to mind is Kyle Bass, who said on October 22 that USD/JPY would hit 120. He saidit would take 12 months and it took just 6 weeks, but hey, when you’re right, you’re right. He also predicted fresh easing from the BOJ on Oct 30.


Kyle Bass