Sure, I'm open to a wager, so long as it is easily quantifiable and not open to discretion.
Japan has fallen victim to the Keynesian scam
- Thread starter Tsing Tao
- Start date
Sure, I'm open to a wager, so long as it is easily quantifiable and not open to discretion.
Great...
Given we've looked at a few economic indicators, we should choose one that's reasonably clear cut. I propose average real GDP measured over a few quarters. We can either define the bet as the odds of the number being higher than some X or as a simple digital, e.g. I win/lose if the number is higher/lower than some other Y.
Simple higher/lower is fine, though the problem is whether or not the BoJ initiates even more stimulus or some other unorthodox policy designed to draw even more from the future. When it comes to the BoJ, there's nothing they won't do once the shit hits the proverbial fan.
Sure, there's always a risk of one sort of intervention or another, but I don't know how to formulate a clear bet that excludes such effects.
Up to you, if you prefer a different format...
Perhaps some outside the box thinking is needed.
There are more japanese families owning cats than JGBs.
A great way to stimulate the economy would be for the BOJ to initiate a cat quantitative easing program.
The BOJ should conduct weekly auctions were they could bid for existing cats.
They should also open a cat repo facility where owners of cats could hypotecate them in exchange for
cash at rates comparable to other high quality collateralized loans.
The wealth effect felt by cat owners accross the country will reinforce a virtuous cycle of
ever higher economic activity reinforcing in turn ever higher cat prices.
If such a program does not seem to show results at first, there is only one explanation.
The BOJ did not bid high enough or did not buy enough cats to begin with.
The solution has been in front of you all along. Higher cat prices!
There are more japanese families owning cats than JGBs.
A great way to stimulate the economy would be for the BOJ to initiate a cat quantitative easing program.
The BOJ should conduct weekly auctions were they could bid for existing cats.
They should also open a cat repo facility where owners of cats could hypotecate them in exchange for
cash at rates comparable to other high quality collateralized loans.
The wealth effect felt by cat owners accross the country will reinforce a virtuous cycle of
ever higher economic activity reinforcing in turn ever higher cat prices.
If such a program does not seem to show results at first, there is only one explanation.
The BOJ did not bid high enough or did not buy enough cats to begin with.
The solution has been in front of you all along. Higher cat prices!
Cats, unfortunately, don't make good collateral and the cat mkt isn't that liquid...
Well, look at it this way... How is rewarding cat owners at the expense of those other poor catless souls any different/worse than what already happens on a pretty much everyday basis? For example, if I have a mortgage, I can pay less tax; if I live in West Virginia, I can pay a lot less for university; etc etc. in all these cases, the other taxpayers are saddled with a higher cost of living.