There are no absolutes or positivities in this game of trading.
January Trading Journals
- Thread starter Hitman
- Start date
There are no absolutes or positivities in this game of trading.
My point was that it has been very hard to play a reactionary game, as most breakout's and breakdown's fail. Of course nothing is absolute in this market, but the traders that have done best are the ones holding on to stuff with half a point or greater stops (that why I said you have to be absolutely, positively, sure about it). I have seen those guys take serious hits but also make serious gains, those with a strong bearish biase performed very well during the last six days. Of course, most of them struggled big time today, some got blown out because they couldn't adjust to the bullish biase in time. For this type of traders, they live and die by their biase before the open, as they are literally immune to shake out's but can get hit hard by reversals.
Market has been on a slow bleed and it has been harder to find quality longs than quality shorts. Don't come up with "look at <insert stock XXX here>" comments, of course there are stuff that ripped but I am taking about broad market, the short side has been much easier than the long side.
As for the year, keep in mind heading into 2001 we still had the 2000 syndrome, and I just can't see a repeat of that this year. I am not referring to individual traders, anyone has a chance to break out any time, but if you are talking about performance as a firm or as a desk then I definitely see it suffering.
Keep in mind top tier traders at my firm universally scored six figures last January, and I am not talking about barely above 100K, this year the numbers are just not there, and frankly I can't see it improving any time soon. Even if we get a super mega day once every week, your aggression and size will not be there if you struggled on all four other games.
January - April is THE critical stretch of the year, the average trader have to make 50% of their year right there and then, if you struggle earlier in the year, after a hard summer grind it will take some herculean resolve and miracle events in the market for you to have a spectacular year.
Market has been on a slow bleed and it has been harder to find quality longs than quality shorts. Don't come up with "look at <insert stock XXX here>" comments, of course there are stuff that ripped but I am taking about broad market, the short side has been much easier than the long side.
As for the year, keep in mind heading into 2001 we still had the 2000 syndrome, and I just can't see a repeat of that this year. I am not referring to individual traders, anyone has a chance to break out any time, but if you are talking about performance as a firm or as a desk then I definitely see it suffering.
Keep in mind top tier traders at my firm universally scored six figures last January, and I am not talking about barely above 100K, this year the numbers are just not there, and frankly I can't see it improving any time soon. Even if we get a super mega day once every week, your aggression and size will not be there if you struggled on all four other games.
January - April is THE critical stretch of the year, the average trader have to make 50% of their year right there and then, if you struggle earlier in the year, after a hard summer grind it will take some herculean resolve and miracle events in the market for you to have a spectacular year.
Hitman,
OK, some good points there ... thanks for the clarifications.
Regards,
Candle
OK, some good points there ... thanks for the clarifications.
Regards,
Candle
I'm having a terrible year to start also. Start almost all my days pos. but somehow go neg. Caught EMN short(1/14) for +1.10 but still ended the day down. I'm having a tough time, start with a small size (EMN) and then size up a little bit it and give it all back.
What does the "Trading Zone" say: 'each trade has is independent of each other.' Your next trade doesn't know your last was a winner, and has it's own probabilites. NEED TO BURN THAT INTO MY BRAIN.
What does the "Trading Zone" say: 'each trade has is independent of each other.' Your next trade doesn't know your last was a winner, and has it's own probabilites. NEED TO BURN THAT INTO MY BRAIN.
Mediocre performance but a much needed one to close out the pay period. 11300 shares each way on 10 of 16 shooting, +714 before commissions, +462 after, no bullets.
This was the first check-less pay period I have endured since September, and it was tough to swallow. Frankly I can not forgive myself for a $1700 deficit during the first 3 easy games of 2002, I at least played defense rest of the way.
Tommorrow would be a golden opportunity to get into the black for 2002 as I am just $350 away, from there hopefully I can put it all behind me and starting making some money.
I have seen a variation of Don Bright's open strategy. It basically involves careful research of countless daily charts to find stuff that are weak (since market has been downtrending lately), the open orders are placed accordingly (discretionary), some market's, some limit's (30-50 cents gap's and support resistance levels from previous intraday).
Basically it is a discretionary version of the open strategy, and I was just stunned that they managed to make money despite of the upward move in the market today, when their open orders today were ALL shorts. (Thanks to a few sweet gap-ups that were filled and tanked right back in)
Coupled with an afternoon strategy that fades breakout's, this particular trader (who has been trading for six months and down 14K just before December, and now has a deficit of a mere 4K) has been ROY material. He is leading his team YTD in every category (as most of his teammates are down), and back then I really wanted him on my team because I saw the potential when he was down big, but the management rejected my idea. What a big loss that was.
Perhaps most importantly, he showed me the power of getting short naturally. I have relied on bullets too much and the lack of production from the short side really hurted when I don't feel like spending commissions on bullets. The key to successful natural shorting is to fade into squeezes/breakouts and never ever short something that is actually coming in (by the time you get the uptick it is time for a squeeze). Proper use of limit shorts is very important, you can short breakout's all day in this market, the first breakout is nearly guaranteed to pullback substantially, and if the specialist wanted to screw some day traders and spread a few market orders to some rediculously high print, you get a gift fill and you will be in the money almost instantly.
In choppy markets I definitely feel there is an advantage of playing the short side versus going long. Most traders favor the long side, and they buy/anticipate breakout's, when the volume is not there you usually get a very good fill on your short and then those that got screwed on the fill have to sell, you can get some really low risk set-ups fading breakout's (unless you see so much volume that everyone and their mother is buying it, of course, but on afternoon's true breakout's are wishful thinkings).
The trader mentioned above typically has 10-20 open orders at some really rediculous prices, but guess what, the specialist needs those orders so he can hit it and screw the buyers, and when there is no volume the stock price just can't be supported. Throw in a little help from futures sometimes you can get serious winners from breakout's that retrace completely. If you are lucky and the specialist wanted to tank the stock after he blows stops by going above a previous high, you score a home run.
Even if you are wrong, there is just not enough volume to support the breakout, and chances are those that are in the money will take profit and you can get out for minimum damage.
Obviously, good tape reading and patience (you will have 15 open orders and you may get one or two fills a hour on those afternoon's) is a must. And you need to micro-manage your open orders as if the market is stronger than you expected you have to adjust them upward. However, with every futures pop being fake on those days, this is a very profitable strategy when used on choppy stocks (too easy to find) on crap out afternoon's.
Pre-Market: Positive comments on OSX (today I was really sure it will go up as it was a classic Tony Oz 3 day reversal, but too bad previous bad tastes in my mouth made me go very light), solid news on airlines (missed it as they all gapped up).
9:30: Went long DO and it was the only one that did any sort of shakeout, and the way I have been hit off the open with oils made me get out fast only to come back in at a worse price and ended up flat on him. Got 30 cents on HP as I thought the stock was poised to make another leg but crapped out. Got BR on XNG move and shaken out for a mere 15 cents profit. Had SGY and out for flat.
9:45: Shorted HDI gap on RLX reversal, got a bad fill and shaken out when it re-tested intraday high (futures was ripping and I was scared), lost 20 cents and watched it all the way back down to unchanged. Got A, DNA, DHI, LEN on futures rip. Home builders rallied and I took a quarter on a late play in DHI but fortunately caught a lucky spread on LEN as he spreaded it up 50 cents which saved my day as my intraday chart on him was messed-up and when it was cleared I saw that I was clearly chasing the trade and my 50 cents profit would have easily been a quarter loss.
10:30: I was up $650 and I had two choices, betting on another leg up or a fade away. I went for the former with very light position but still gave back money on LEN/DHI. Then the futures made that fake move I went long AMD and lost 5 cents. Tried FD bottom pick and out for flat.
2:00: Faded ABI/TER break-out's with small experimenting shares and got 15 cents out of each.
3:30: Went long NSM/AMD and broke even.
This was the first check-less pay period I have endured since September, and it was tough to swallow. Frankly I can not forgive myself for a $1700 deficit during the first 3 easy games of 2002, I at least played defense rest of the way.
Tommorrow would be a golden opportunity to get into the black for 2002 as I am just $350 away, from there hopefully I can put it all behind me and starting making some money.
I have seen a variation of Don Bright's open strategy. It basically involves careful research of countless daily charts to find stuff that are weak (since market has been downtrending lately), the open orders are placed accordingly (discretionary), some market's, some limit's (30-50 cents gap's and support resistance levels from previous intraday).
Basically it is a discretionary version of the open strategy, and I was just stunned that they managed to make money despite of the upward move in the market today, when their open orders today were ALL shorts. (Thanks to a few sweet gap-ups that were filled and tanked right back in)
Coupled with an afternoon strategy that fades breakout's, this particular trader (who has been trading for six months and down 14K just before December, and now has a deficit of a mere 4K) has been ROY material. He is leading his team YTD in every category (as most of his teammates are down), and back then I really wanted him on my team because I saw the potential when he was down big, but the management rejected my idea. What a big loss that was.
Perhaps most importantly, he showed me the power of getting short naturally. I have relied on bullets too much and the lack of production from the short side really hurted when I don't feel like spending commissions on bullets. The key to successful natural shorting is to fade into squeezes/breakouts and never ever short something that is actually coming in (by the time you get the uptick it is time for a squeeze). Proper use of limit shorts is very important, you can short breakout's all day in this market, the first breakout is nearly guaranteed to pullback substantially, and if the specialist wanted to screw some day traders and spread a few market orders to some rediculously high print, you get a gift fill and you will be in the money almost instantly.
In choppy markets I definitely feel there is an advantage of playing the short side versus going long. Most traders favor the long side, and they buy/anticipate breakout's, when the volume is not there you usually get a very good fill on your short and then those that got screwed on the fill have to sell, you can get some really low risk set-ups fading breakout's (unless you see so much volume that everyone and their mother is buying it, of course, but on afternoon's true breakout's are wishful thinkings).
The trader mentioned above typically has 10-20 open orders at some really rediculous prices, but guess what, the specialist needs those orders so he can hit it and screw the buyers, and when there is no volume the stock price just can't be supported. Throw in a little help from futures sometimes you can get serious winners from breakout's that retrace completely. If you are lucky and the specialist wanted to tank the stock after he blows stops by going above a previous high, you score a home run.
Even if you are wrong, there is just not enough volume to support the breakout, and chances are those that are in the money will take profit and you can get out for minimum damage.
Obviously, good tape reading and patience (you will have 15 open orders and you may get one or two fills a hour on those afternoon's) is a must. And you need to micro-manage your open orders as if the market is stronger than you expected you have to adjust them upward. However, with every futures pop being fake on those days, this is a very profitable strategy when used on choppy stocks (too easy to find) on crap out afternoon's.
Pre-Market: Positive comments on OSX (today I was really sure it will go up as it was a classic Tony Oz 3 day reversal, but too bad previous bad tastes in my mouth made me go very light), solid news on airlines (missed it as they all gapped up).
9:30: Went long DO and it was the only one that did any sort of shakeout, and the way I have been hit off the open with oils made me get out fast only to come back in at a worse price and ended up flat on him. Got 30 cents on HP as I thought the stock was poised to make another leg but crapped out. Got BR on XNG move and shaken out for a mere 15 cents profit. Had SGY and out for flat.
9:45: Shorted HDI gap on RLX reversal, got a bad fill and shaken out when it re-tested intraday high (futures was ripping and I was scared), lost 20 cents and watched it all the way back down to unchanged. Got A, DNA, DHI, LEN on futures rip. Home builders rallied and I took a quarter on a late play in DHI but fortunately caught a lucky spread on LEN as he spreaded it up 50 cents which saved my day as my intraday chart on him was messed-up and when it was cleared I saw that I was clearly chasing the trade and my 50 cents profit would have easily been a quarter loss.
10:30: I was up $650 and I had two choices, betting on another leg up or a fade away. I went for the former with very light position but still gave back money on LEN/DHI. Then the futures made that fake move I went long AMD and lost 5 cents. Tried FD bottom pick and out for flat.
2:00: Faded ABI/TER break-out's with small experimenting shares and got 15 cents out of each.
3:30: Went long NSM/AMD and broke even.
Candle,
All I'm saying is what we've seen so far. I try not to predict. Do you anticipate things getting a lot better?
All I'm saying is what we've seen so far. I try not to predict. Do you anticipate things getting a lot better?
<i>I'm having a terrible year to start also. Start almost all my days pos. but somehow go neg. Caught EMN short(1/14) for +1.10 but still ended the day down. I'm having a tough time, start with a small size (EMN) and then size up a little bit it and give it all back. </i>
If you are doing well, but giving it all back in the afternoon, what compells you to keep trading in the afternoon? Take a break, just watch it and figure it out but dont trade it, or trade it small.
If you are doing well, but giving it all back in the afternoon, what compells you to keep trading in the afternoon? Take a break, just watch it and figure it out but dont trade it, or trade it small.
Because use more size in losing trades than winning trades is part of the losing streak syndrome.
You see a set-up and you say gee this looks so good I will take 1000 shares and bam you get stopped out.
You see a set-up you feel partial about and you take 500 shares and you watch it go up up and away.
It is all part of the game, eventually you will get back in the zone and everything will be alright.
You see a set-up and you say gee this looks so good I will take 1000 shares and bam you get stopped out.
You see a set-up you feel partial about and you take 500 shares and you watch it go up up and away.
It is all part of the game, eventually you will get back in the zone and everything will be alright.
I understand "why" he is doing it. We have all been through it. It was I guess more of a rhetorical question. Its a hard to do, I had a 4 month loosing streak I had in which I didnt have a single winning week. When it ended I was down less than 6%. Money managment is key, and a BIG part of that is to keep things (position size and thus your losses) small so when things swing back you are not digging out of a hole that is too deep.
Really have to get to bed now
Brandon
Really have to get to bed now
Brandon