Jack Hershey's Methodologies (SCT & PVT)-Good Bad or Ugly

[New2thegame]

Jack,

I never called you any of those names, so not sure why you included the reference in your post to me.

Anyway, I think it's very simple: I see you or anyone extract 3x the H-L in the ES or any vehicle and my "orientation" changes drastically. You can't possibly suggest that they wouldn't.

To study yours and Spyder's thousands of posts would take months at minimum, and it could take a year or more of practice to gain traction with any method, so I don't feel it is unreasonable to request seeing it in action. It isn't a ruse, but rather simply an opportunity to see whether or not the effort is worth the time. Seeing 3x the H-L being extracted at will would cause any trader to experience an epiphany that would change their views no matter how far they currently are from yours.

You are obviously not going to allow me to visit you in Tucson or anywhere, but where can I go or who can I see that can demonstrate live the power of the method? It doesn't necessarily need to be in the same room, but just a scenario where it is obvious that the trades/calls are made in advance or at least real time and the outcome is indisputable. Can you help me make such arrangements?

Who should I ask for at Rosenthal Collins?

Thanks,

Quote from jack hershey:

We exchanged views in a great thread that the moderators closed.

What would be the point of a person with your views watching me trade?

Basically, what it is like in the room I trade in, is a congenial atmosphere and we all work together to "know that we know". We use a routine that is the opposite of yours as you state your orientation Apples and oranges so to speak.

When people (who are normal CW kinds of people) have observed us trading, it is a unique experience for them. There are a wide range of reactions as you would expect.

As we observe the people watching us, it is very clear that most people do not know how the markets work. This can cause a great deal of questions. It make the atmosphere a little electric and not eclectic.

Sometimes a person observing would take it upon himself to try to do better than we do. This postpones their reaching a place where they might have a moment of open mindedness. People sometimes harden up in their views and countertrade relative to our positions. It is not fun to have this happen.

If you read some of the positions people take regarding extracting the market's offer all of the time, maybe you can understand how it is not in the cards for you to spend any time in Tucson or whereever I happen to be on exhibit.

The Worden Bros did use their drag and drop to set up PVT and then, not having a Universe selection capability, they checked it out against the NAZ 100. The Sharpe was about 60 so they figured they screwed up the drag and drop. Personally were I them, I would have put the computer in a box and taken it back to Wordenland without touching it.

They knew instinctively something was wrong. By repeating the process and getting an identical answer, they relented and just chalked it up as the best performance they had ever seen. The group watching and their marketing director seemed to take an interest in using the drag and drop flow sheet that was generated.

This took about 20 minutes. You want to watch for three times as long for some reason. When I teach real time trading I use canned videos of screens. A day's trading takes 40 minutes by just going along and doing the trades and zipping through each hold period. Holding is more important and just looking at the end of holds is the primary focus.

Here is the way it is. The tougher they are the harder they fall. Some people never get it as a matter of fact.

You have the impression that a 77 year old person incurrs no costs when he spends time doing something. When I post a word on here, there is a reason. It is a cost recovery time. Many people who have your viewpoint get taken care of in one post of mine.

It would be very expensive to all in the room where I was trading if you opened your mouth. Irrational distractions are expensive. Have you ever been in a trading room, ever?

Speaking as a megalomaniac, manic-depressive, schizophrenic liar, I really can't figure out any value in it for you to sit around while we are trading.

Since you are from Chicago, drop in at the executive offices of Rosenthal Collins, all their top brass have seen us trade and assessed our performances (floors 10 to 12 at the place where the exchange is located.) The ex president of the large S&P contract floor traders ( club like thingy) could fill you in because he was an eye witness. Fro quite a while the phone number posted in ET has been available to anyone who wanted to verify our trading. This person's individual clients get mid 8 digits up side down sometimes; being prudent, that is not a great DD in their accounts.

 

[New2thegame]

So this man has traded with Jack and/or Spyder or at least can attest to the claims of their methodologies? Can he offer proof of any kind?

Thanks,

Quote from nkhoi:

if you are from chicago then call I am sure they will more than welcome you ask all question you want to ask ,no need to fly
James Sramek
Broker
Peak Trading Group
30 South Wacker Drive
Suite 1208, Chicago, 60606
Phone-866-279-9648
Phone-312-627-4560
Fax-312-795-4120

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from New2thegame:

So this man has traded with Jack and/or Spyder or at least can attest to the claims of their methodologies? Can he offer proof of any kind?

Thanks,

yes.

 

[icarus618]

game, couple of questions:

(1) What level of performance would you consider not "outlandish"?

(2) How did you arrive at (1)?

There was a time on this site when a prominent sponsor denied it was even possible to come out positive trading stock index futures. Subsequent to that, there was a poll done and I remember 1 point/day ES was the popular response. That was years ago, however.

It might be interesting to find out what is "believable" to the current crowd.

 

[mindtrade]

Quote from icarus618:


There was a time on this site when a prominent sponsor denied it was even possible to come out positive trading stock index futures.

That must have been before my time here. Which sponsor was that?

 

[New2thegame]

Considering I am yet to be a trader so to speak, my estimates are subjective. To indulge you, I'll take a shot:

Considering a guesstimate that the ES averages a 13 point H-L currently, Jack and Spyder suggest a good trader can routinely pull 39 points per contract from it on a daily basis... That is outlandish to me, and I would presume it is to most. I know both Jack and Spyder would blame my conclusion on CW but what I'd like them to realize is that I'm more than willing to allow them to show me the error in my ways. Of course they'll remind me they don't owe me anything, and they're right, they don't. However, I am asking them nicely to please show me an example of this for my own edification.

I'd guess that extracting 1/4 of the H-L from their market of choice (on average) would be a realistic-ish hallmark for a good trader. That is of course some 12x less optimistic than Jack though. I may be way off, but that sounds reasonable to me for someone who knows what they're doing.

What have your experiences shown you to be realistic?

Oh, and 3x the H-L is outlandish because this would mean that an account as small as $1,500 could grow well in excess of 100%/day...

Quote from icarus618:

game, couple of questions:

(1) What level of performance would you consider not "outlandish"?

(2) How did you arrive at (1)?

There was a time on this site when a prominent sponsor denied it was even possible to come out positive trading stock index futures. Subsequent to that, there was a poll done and I remember 1 point/day ES was the popular response. That was years ago, however.

It might be interesting to find out what is "believable" to the current crowd.

 

[icarus618]

Quote from mindtrade:

That must have been before my time here. Which sponsor was that?

Who it was is not important as he spoke for a lot of people.

 

[icarus618]

Quote from New2thegame:

Considering I am yet to be a trader so to speak, my estimates are subjective. To indulge you, I'll take a shot:

Considering a guesstimate that the ES averages a 13 point H-L currently, Jack and Spyder suggest a good trader can routinely pull 39 points per contract from it on a daily basis... That is outlandish to me, and I would presume it is to most. I know both Jack and Spyder would blame my conclusion on CW but what I'd like them to realize is that I'm more than willing to allow them to show me the error in my ways. Of course they'll remind me they don't owe me anything, and they're right, they don't. However, I am asking them nicely to please show me an example of this for my own edification.

I'd guess that extracting 1/4 of the H-L from their market of choice (on average) would be a realistic-ish hallmark for a good trader. That is of course some 12x less optimistic than Jack though. I may be way off, but that sounds reasonable to me for someone who knows what they're doing.

What have your experiences shown you to be realistic?

Oh, and 3x the H-L is outlandish because this would mean that an account as small as $1,500 could grow well in excess of 100%/day...

So . . . 1/4 of a day's range in the ES? Which you calculate current conditions to yield 3.25 pts . . . Let's call it 3 pts/day.

How about my second question? Didn't seem to me you answered that, as your mind is preoccupied objecting to what you think others believe.

 

[New2thegame]

Yeah, and you didn't answer my only question because your mind was preoccupied psychoanalyzing a newb (me).

Yes, I think 3 points seems a whole lot more reasonable than 39. Here's a glimpse into why I'd guess this is so:

There are a lot of moves during the day that "offer" as Jack would put it, 3 points or greater in the ES. It seems reasonable to me that a solid trader could capture at least one of these moves or several parts of many intraday to capture 3+ points on average. I stress average because I know we can't expext to go lossless, and furthermore we can't expect to make the same amount each day.

Now, your answer...

Quote from icarus618:

So . . . 1/4 of a day's range in the ES? Which you calculate current conditions to yield 3.25 pts . . . Let's call it 3 pts/day.

How about my second question? Didn't seem to me you answered that, as your mind is preoccupied objecting to what you think others believe.

 

[icarus618]

Quote from New2thegame:

Yeah, and you didn't answer my only question because your mind was preoccupied psychoanalyzing a newb (me).

Yes, I think 3 points seems a whole lot more reasonable than 39. Here's a glimpse into why I'd guess this is so:

There are a lot of moves during the day that "offer" as Jack would put it, 3 points or greater in the ES. It seems reasonable to me that a solid trader could capture at least one of these moves or several parts of many intraday to capture 3+ points on average. I stress average because I know we can't expext to go lossless, and furthermore we can't expect to make the same amount each day.

Now, your answer...

So . . . your answer is that it's just your guess based on your observation that there are a lot of moves of 3 pts or more during the day such that a person with sufficient knowledge, skill and experience will extract at least one of those moves.

I take from your answer that it's reasonable that a person who has the knowledge, skill and experience to extract one of the many 3+ point moves can repeat it more than once during the day, except there's uncertainty with the success rate involved, and so the 3 pts/ day is an average. Fair enough, and thanks for your answer.

Your question to me was "What have your experiences shown you to be realistic?"

My answer is that my experience in life, not just in trading, has shown me that what I thought of as possibilities has been too limited. So I avoid aiming for what I might think to be "realistic" and consider just what I can perceive.

That's my philosophical answer.

My practical answer from experience is that 1x H-L is done before PM begins on most days. On those days when the market is in a "trend day" it will be less than that but the yield in points much higher. I rarely sit through an entire day anymore, however.