Jack Hershey's Drill number 1

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continuing todays recap

L 1267.50
S 1269.00 +1.50
L 1270.50 -1.50
S 1271.00 +.50
L1273.50 -1.5
Out 1275.50 +2.00

Net 1.00/contract before commission
5 rt @ $5 = 25

Net Net for today
$50 - $25 = $25/contract

Cumulative Total
$25

I will repeat this drill as is for awhile and then add iterative refinements.
 
Quote from Chicken Little:

.....

Here is a progression of four mechanical methods to illustrate making money
primarily and secondarily to illustrate that losses are neatly reduced more
and more as a little sophistication enters the picture. I also introduce
how in a trend you can switch to the most favorable side of the channel to
exit. Because this is very simple and mechanical there is no need to
clutter it with a stop system as yet mostly because it an index tied to the
performance of and aggregation of stocks. We can tuck stops in easily
though as a commitment to our ordinary discipline.

The four items in the progression are:

1. break out of prior bar.
2. slope pairs of bars.
3. overlapped pairs slopes
4. retracement.

Here is the progression:

1. set up a 30 bar display for a futures index.
2. enter on the breakout beyond (above or below) the prior days last bar
hi/lo.
3. hold until the current bar breaks out of the other end (from your long or
short entry) of the prior bar.
4. hold on inside bars.
5. hold on successive bar break outs in the same trend.
6. on breakout of 3., reverse so you can take on new trend trade.
7. repeat 3. through 6. for remaining bars of the day.
8. settle at end of day.
More...

So I take it that this is just a base system on which the trader should look to improve upon? It is also one of 4? Where are the other 3? Can curiosity kill the cat?

I would say from looking at the text that markets do tend to spend lengthy times in congestion, and this it would seem is a trend following approach. Therefore, I can understand the comment that this will get the user killed quite quickly - especially in conditions we have seen before the recent break. But, that is why this is a base system and needs further development.

I don't understand why the trade is cut short on rule 6 where the trade is reversed. Who says markets reverse after 3x 30min bars? In a trend following system, isn't it best to let the trade run as far as possible? Am I missing something? The example of 23rd May is a good example, and such runs inevitably help us become whole again after the earlier chop that occurred on that day; and indeed other days that start in a tight range.

Am I speaking out of turn before the whole picture is revealed?

Just thoughts....
 
Quote from StreamlineTrade:

So I take it that this is just a base system on which the trader should look to improve upon? It is also one of 4? Where are the other 3? Can curiosity kill the cat?

The four are listed as:

1. break out of prior bar.
2. slope pairs of bars.
3. overlapped pairs slopes
4. retracement.
So the other 3 are:

2. slope pairs of bars.
3. overlapped pairs slopes
4. retracement.

The original thread was a long one and many people participated in the process. There are five additional levels too. When a person gets through with all the levels (I referred to them as Plateaux, he winds up in the market most of the time and on the right side of the market.)

I would say from looking at the text that markets do tend to spend lengthy times in congestion, and this it would seem is a trend following approach. Therefore, I can understand the comment that this will get the user killed quite quickly - especially in conditions we have seen before the recent break. But, that is why this is a base system and needs further development.

As you suggest this was only the beginning point to begin to show stages of iterative refinement. The thread beginner here and now is a very persistent person who has only dwelt on setting up the base line and he has been holding this focus for years so far. Lets say he gets it that a base line reference is valuable. If that be the case then he might want to look at how different trading improvements can be made. Would there be any value in his looking a a totally mechanical version of trading a futures index by using a leading index as a guide? This will be hard to answer because of how he is going about what he is doing.

I don't understand why the trade is cut short on rule 6 where the trade is reversed. Who says markets reverse after 3x 30min bars?

Rule 6 says "6. on breakout of 3., reverse so you can take on new trend trade." 3 refers to rule 3 which says: "3. hold until the current bar breaks out of the other end (from your long or short entry) of the prior bar." So, the material posted is not clear to you and probably most people. This is a practice drill for beginning to learn to formulate rules of trading that relate to the whole market during the whole day. It is like a "wash" trade drill but it just uses a simple method on long (30 minute bars) to get acquainted to the daily moves of the market. Most days are W or M in shape meaning that they have four legs and usually the midday is neutral. You have determined that in three bars that a person reverses because that is the way you read rule 6. Some of this material is 6 years old and it is not in the form of the original thread; the remainder of the material is recent and not complete either. Lastly, there is text originated by the OP in his words for his purposes.

In a trend following system, isn't it best to let the trade run as far as possible?

Yes it is. How to do that is the topic of the progression. you see the first level as four successive parts where an improvement is made as one goes from one level to the next. The OP has his work cut out for him. each time he does this effort he makes, he quits after establishing the base line as a lousy place to begin with a few rules. It may be that he is not "getting it" at all. It may be that he is going to go for it this time and go through level 1 then the next five levels to get to SCT trading. Who knows? That is the fun in it for many people in ET. Old persons watch and new people participate here and there. The OP just does the baseline reference over and over.

Am I missing something? The example of 23rd May is a good example, and such runs inevitably help us become whole again after the earlier chop that occurred on that day; and indeed other days that start in a tight range.

that is the way it is. After x days or x trades a person has a basic reference for how a simple baseline set of rules works. The next series of steps is to make understandable improvements on this beginning.

Am I speaking out of turn before the whole picture is revealed?

Anyone in ET can speak as they wish. One path is to keep improving what is going on as a means to learn more and more about making money in the market. Here, I have attached a chart that is composed of nine tables (each has a different color than black) that are like many sets of rules that correspond to the steps you are posting about. you can see that the fractal of 30 minutes has become 5 minutes.... further you see that the trading on the ES is being preceded by the market move on the YM and DJ spread using the 2 minute charts for them. Finally, you see that the DOM of the ES is used as would be the T&S tape reading. What is missing is how three separate indicators each set to appropriate defaults are also in the picture. What makes it even more interesting is the mechanical version of all of this. The OP is now doing the baseline reference so you can see that when the whole picture is revealed we can use the work of the Original Poster who copied some stuff from 6 years ago as a reference. It may be more apparent to you now why I asked him to do the four progressions side by side everyday. It will be a short cut for ET readers to get the first three improvements completed. Then we can add variables and add indicators and add annotations and add T&S and add leading indexes of the ES and their indicators to the mix. It is possible that the OP will not complete the course; each time he starts he poops out on setting the reference base line.

Just thoughts....
More...
 

Attachments

Quote from Chicken Little:

Thanks Grob/Jack. We'll be hard at work here and we welcome your frequent visits and insiteful commentary on the progress of this drill.
More...


Just send the folks over to:

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=69672&perpage=6&pagenumber=6

easyrider covered the bases with two posts on how making money in ES works six years later than the base line post you put up yet once a gain.

I am not going to post here any further.

There is zero chance that you are going to do any different than you have in the past. Whatever your mission continues to be, it is not desirable or necessary for me to be part of it in any way.
 
so in order to get this sct shit going, you need:

1. es chart
2. ym chart
3. channels
4. volume
5. market depth
6. 3 indicators
7. market pace
8. several different timeframes
... what else??

and now would anybody believe that you can mix all those elements together and get something out that speaks a clear language in terms of signals - and this 6 hours per day every single day?

i mean ... - i mean - would... would you??

L M A O

(here we have a 73 old retard who tells us he is doing this all the time - but not only this but also the equities thing and some other things as well - all at the same time - wow - time management !!)
 
Jack said he's not going to post here any more. So below please find my Jack Hershey Cliffs Notes, made almost entirely of direct quotes from Jack himself or A Team documents with minor editing. I believe these give anyone contemplating trading Jack's methods an excellent idea of where he's coming from, plus a concise guide to trading Jack Hershey Style that's just as clear as anything this is summarized from :)

I speak from an orientation IBM made when it had 80% of the worled market. IBM assembled folks in Poghkeepsie and later Eurpoeans in Kilchberg Switzerland. I am a product of the US science search of the late 40's to early 50's and also I lived in the peculiar climate of BTL then the Darvas period of NYC and Greenwich, Conn. I was bouncing from Shockey and Shannon to Princeton on Tuesdays to Science Fairs on tesla and half lives of radio active elements. My preferred dining place in Princeton is the Princeton Inn. I played cops and robbers in the Firestone Library when it was being build (as a guest of the contractors twin children). I am not asking for snow conditions at Whistler or where you dine in NYC.

For the markets I sight several data characterisics not at all familiar. I don't do edges. The B Team has it all understood and is stuck in a place that is different than my views. Franco Modigliani recently of MIT had the theory for sure. Modigliani determined, and WON he NP for a Contribution. I abide by his remedy. Therefore by my pro active behavior, I have an offer in support of the remedy. As time passes and you look at stuff like Norbert Weiner and Richard Restak you will find out how impressive the first steps are.

It is not a coiincidence at all in any way what so ever that the dream team is saying things about integrating the sewweep focal points and saying the inferential things they say and that B has had a eureka on the channel overlap. This is what Barbara Marx Hubbard was suggesting in her oncept of sinergistic convergence among isolated groups that merge into larger common purpose groups. Doxiatis out of greece did the same with Ekistiks, the science of human settlements.

Surf the gaussians on the lower fractals to do 4 to 7% a day. 1% a day is underachieving. You can have 7/8 winners. Non performers give you cash for performers. My best net to dat5e was 17 points on a 100,000 shares in the 30 dollar exit range. Taking half that out of the market is a normal way to operate for me. The four levels of Icebergers exist. Level IV enters on 50% crossover with divergence of the fast stochastic lines. Level I’s enter as do rocketeers. Levels II and III enter using the rocket rules on the fast stochastic (5, 2, 3). Levels I and II exit when the fast stochastic comes out the other side of the 20/80. Level II’s reverse into a long trade. Level IV’s reverse on the 50% where lines are divergent. Confirm your iceberg entry and determine that the iceberg is now operating at low risk. Follow SCT rules as superceding rocket rules. All the indicators are designed for integration over a spectrum of fractals. Use three MLR's and measure the rate of change of the three pairs of angular velocities generated and use something kindred to the algebra for base five as a starter.

Backtesting is not a viable means for finding anything out. The reason why is fairly straightforward to determine. If you are backtesting something and you feel you have grasp the thing you are backtesting, then you have failed to really grasp what (the thing) is going on. It is not possible for a person who does not know what is going on to back test this stuff. I have stated it. And it just flows from there using boolean algebra.

Lay out three ring binders with annotations to scope out and bound the PV relationship and detail the SCT paradigm. Together it will take you at least 2000 pages. Print on the left side of the binders only and do it every day at least 100 times on all fractals. Put a tab in your binder labeled CC. (compare and contrast). CC is excellent as you can read. All annotations take as much as possible out of play. You will have assembled it and you can go through it and figure out in detail all the things I did to produce the stuff.

This practical method is condensed from camtasia replays where about 3/4 of the stuff is removed. Someone will get you there if you do not have all that stuff in a binder. It also has all glossary terms in bold. A walk in the park is the place to start.

In the past ET has seen blank forms and filled in forms from me. They have seen me post combos as well for the $600 per contract that is where you will be operating. The record is there on this and you have seen it and and you are doing likewise I am sure. You will notice that you are now getting in gear on this.
 
Quote from gerry875:

so in order to get this sct shit going, you need:

1. es chart
2. ym chart
3. channels
4. volume
5. market depth
6. 3 indicators
7. market pace
8. several different timeframes
... what else??

and now would anybody believe that you can mix all those elements together and get something out that speaks a clear language in terms of signals - and this 6 hours per day every single day?

i mean ... - i mean - would... would you??

L M A O

(here we have a 73 old retard who tells us he is doing this all the time - but not only this but also the equities thing and some other things as well - all at the same time - wow - time management !!)
More...

Some people can't chew gum and walk at the same time... In an orchestra, there are many instruments who's collective sound create the rich sound that the audience enjoys. Have you ever looked at a conductors sheet music? It show's PRECISELY where and how all the music for each instrument lines up with respect to one another and the piece. A few of my friends were gifted enough to be able to pick up a handful of instruments that had widely different fingerings and then sight-read the music nearly perfectly. Skilled conductors may have the entire program of sheet music committed to memory. Some can even pick out the most minute flaw in an instruments tone (sharp vs flat) out of a chord constructed from the sound of an ensemble of more than 100 musicians... The point is, with experience, you acquire the ability to add capability over existing capability, just like playing some instruments provides easier flexibility in playing other instruments (ie. piano). Think of 1 through 8 as different instruments who play different parts of the same song. Any one of them can be taken into isolation. The difference between 1 instrument playing the song as opposed to 8 is similar to the difference between a monontonic vs polyphonic ring tone. Ironically, or perhaps not so, one is definitely richer (lol) than the other... :cool:.

MAK
 
Quote from makosgu:

Some people can't chew gum and walk at the same time... In an orchestra, there are many instruments who's collective sound create the rich sound that the audience enjoys. Have you ever looked at a conductors sheet music? It show's PRECISELY where and how all the music for each instrument lines up with respect to one another and the piece. A few of my friends were gifted enough to be able to pick up a handful of instruments that had widely different fingerings and then sight-read the music nearly perfectly. Skilled conductors may have the entire program of sheet music committed to memory. Some can even pick out the most minute flaw in an instruments tone (sharp vs flat) out of a chord constructed from the sound of an ensemble of more than 100 musicians... The point is, with experience, you acquire the ability to add capability over existing capability, just like playing some instruments provides easier flexibility in playing other instruments (ie. piano). Think of 1 through 8 as different instruments who play different parts of the same song. Any one of them can be taken into isolation. The difference between 1 instrument playing the song as opposed to 8 is similar to the difference between a monontonic vs polyphonic ring tone. Ironically, or perhaps not so, one is definitely richer (lol) than the other... :cool:.

MAK
More...

That was a very enjoyable read.
 
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