Jack Hershey, you around?

R

RangeTrader

I have and interesting observation and was curious if you would care to comment.

I have been calculating out probabilities a lot lately and have noticed something... When there is a high probability of a certain event happening... Eg, like when we touched new highs today. I calculated out the probability of a reversal dip toward this weekend being around 90% from those new highs. That created a certainty that professionals would analyze the probability and pare back positions through today in fear of the odds probability and shorting in anticipation of it.

The only sure certainty is peoples reactions to the probability. This is why I always like trading off highs/lows at key levels. There is always a certainty of people buying/selling because of the high probability of the market pulling back from those prices.

In essence... A uncertain probability creates a new event of certainty!!!
 
Quote from RangeTrader:

I have and interesting observation and was curious if you would care to comment.

I have been calculating out probabilities a lot lately and have noticed something... When there is a high probability of a certain event happening... Eg, like when we touched new highs today. I calculated out the probability of a reversal dip toward this weekend being around 90% from those new highs. That created a certainty that professionals would analyze the probability and pare back positions through today in fear of the odds probability and shorting in anticipation of it.

The only sure certainty is peoples reactions to the probability. This is why I always like trading off highs/lows at key levels. There is always a certainty of people buying/selling because of the high probability of the market pulling back from those prices.

In essence... A uncertain probability creates a new event of certainty!!!
More...

Rubbish!!!

Most people are too irrational to act rationally when confronted by uncertainty. Most just panic in any direction.
 
Uncertain uncertainty creates certain certainty!!!


Wall street went on a professional gambler hiring spree a few years back. A lot of pro traders came from backgrounds of card games and blackjack stables. Some pro's even use to run card counting rings back in the day until they got booted out of the casino's so they went into trading.

If you don't think the big money that moves this market can't handle their odds calculations you are delusional!

Also, it doesn't take many hands influencing the market to decide the pattern... Hell, you could probably set all the tops and the bottoms precisely this week with a mere ten million the market is so thin... Eg, you could influence them within like three points with icebergs and decide the exact top and bottom prints.


If some egotistical hedge fund manager says the market is going to print an exact topping number the next day and the market hits the number and falls... He isn't a magician. He roughly had the market momentum calculated out and sold assets there. When the big sales show up on the volume stupid traders see it and they all get freaked out for a while.

With a mere million you can run the daytrading patterns in some small semi-active dollar stocks provided nobody else already has a claim to them like knight capital... I know that for a fact.
 
correcto mundo.

BUT....lol

stats lag as you know.

fortunately there is never a huge rush.

So you are good to go.

what a plesure to see your posting. Read Larry Harris thoroughly.

Look at page 199 in the table of trading/investing types.

You have grasp the counerintuitiveness of markets re extracting capital.
 
Quote from davroz:

Rubbish!!!

Most people are too irrational to act rationally when confronted by uncertainty. Most just panic in any direction.
More...

Actually no.

Do you breakfast regularly at the Links Club???? East side of Central Park uptown.

I bet not.
 
Quote from RangeTrader:

Uncertain uncertainty creates certain certainty!!!


Wall street went on a professional gambler hiring spree a few years back. A lot of pro traders came from backgrounds of card games and blackjack stables. Some pro's even use to run card counting rings back in the day until they got booted out of the casino's so they went into trading.

If you don't think the big money that moves this market can't handle their odds calculations you are delusional!

Also, it doesn't take many hands influencing the market to decide the pattern... Hell, you could probably set all the tops and the bottoms precisely this week with a mere ten million the market is so thin... Eg, you could influence them within like three points with icebergs and decide the exact top and bottom prints.


If some egotistical hedge fund manager says the market is going to print an exact topping number the next day and the market hits the number and falls... He isn't a magician. He roughly had the market momentum calculated out and sold assets there. When the big sales show up on the volume stupid traders see it and they all get freaked out for a while.

With a mere million you can run the daytrading patterns in some small semi-active dollar stocks provided nobody else already has a claim to them like knight capital... I know that for a fact.
More...


icebergs....i like that

i do remember those supervizor hawks at 21 tables. I used to count the cricket's calling for dealer changes. they got really mad.
 
Icebergs are tricky buggers.

Think about it this way... If price is oscillating upward and slowing in momentum and you want to iceberg the market... You estimate the market liquidity vs how big of a position you want to establish. Then you decide where to start iceberging the market.

If you have calculated out things correctly people knocking their heads against your brick wall of an iceberg should have filled most of your position by the time they give up trying to break through.

Once it starts to drift the other way and they panic then you can set a distribution alogo to stealthily get the best prices with nobody taking much notice.

I don't really care to run any markets... Some people still manage to find small stocks to run. Just follow the big boys around! Their rules are simple.


Some trader with a CME seat taught me about icebergs ages ago. That is what he called them.
 
Quote from RangeTrader:

Icebergs are tricky buggers.

Think about it this way... If price is oscillating upward and slowing in momentum and you want to iceberg the market... You estimate the market liquidity vs how big of a position you want to establish. Then you decide where to start iceberging the market.

If you have calculated out things correctly people knocking their heads against your brick wall of an iceberg should have filled most of your position by the time they give up trying to break through.

Once it starts to drift the other way and they panic then you can set a distribution alogo to stealthily get the best prices with nobody taking much notice.

I don't really care to run any markets... Some people still manage to find small stocks to run. Just follow the big boys around! Their rules are simple.


Some trader with a CME seat taught me about icebergs ages ago. That is what he called them.
More...

Jack... When are you gonna stop this shit?
 
I'm not jack you douche...

Anyway. A jack is an interesting guy. A lot of his theories are spot on.

The problem is the concepts are too abstract for most people to understand them because were dealing with the intricacies of human's gambling physiology.
 
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