Quote from bwolinsky:
I see the reverse intrabar order calculation on every 15 minute bar is an unnecessarily large amount of trades with little upside but low risk to some extent, too.
These results are a consequence of establishing a complete system on a trading fractal.
By collecting enough data points, the p drops to less than 0.05. 20 data points is where that happens.
The conservative statistician will take the time to chose the worst possible cases to get the least favorable performance.
as the daily data points become available, the statisitcal quality of the person doing the stats will also become evident.
The indicator for this approach is known. The fractal being used is known.
Those who are viewing the record are noticing that this base line is crude and just out of the box vis a vis the CW perfomance maximums.
how ever the stats are done on the data being provided, there is an opportunity to normalize the stats. Normalization then lets a standard performance to the market's offer be constructed. this will be very tricky business for any statistician since most do not know how to handle raw data and first convert the raw data to high utility data.
Two major major considerations are available. Neither is used by anyone. By incorporating these two major major considerations a person gets to see just how lousy the data points are currently. Moreso, the person gets to see how and why the CW range of systems do not come anywhere close to making the market's offer.
The status now is that the data presented exceeds any CW operation. Secondly, it can now be chacked out why CW is so poor in effectiveness and efficiency and performance. what can be used from this point forward is the baseline of CW responses to this data set to show the lack of performance considerations by these CW types.
The opening post was a good example. The poster showed the last trade of his mistaken system was compared to "days" when what is going on is an intraday trading system.
Some of the most recent posted charts, do not show volume or its stand in on the charts. these people, mentally, have the CW standard failings s outlined in Behavior Finance's basic proinciples posted on the home page of Behavioral Finance (not a site on the Wikipedia level).
The growth of all markets is quantified and qualified. The statisitically processed results are available, roughly speaking, on every street corner. These data explain what standing still in wealth is all about.
finally, process this post I have responded to.
Here may be a person looking at a fifteen minute chart saying something about trades. He says there are X amount of trades (one at some point on every bar) and a resulting return. The return is in his "little" category. He also does a risk classification of "low risk to some extent". In summary, this person is doing 27 trades a day, net profitable and enduring risk.
Lets look at his system: bars are colored (the sentiment) and they have opens and closes. One bar's close is the next bars open. He trades every bar. Conclusion: he trades every bar at the time of color change or, if not, on bar close. This could be what a non CW trader is up against for standard setting.
In public forums, this poster is a loser, currently. Lets see if he can get to BE.