Hey Jack,
On the group of eight cards, should it really be two sets of 8, each set accompanied with + or - v , or ignored and holding any of the 8 cards regardless ?
Jack Hershey Method Since 2008
- Thread starter bwolinsky
- Start date
On the group of eight cards, should it really be two sets of 8, each set accompanied with + or - v , or ignored and holding any of the 8 cards regardless ?
Grab a brick red and jungle green, let's get drawing.
Stay within the lines , be disciplined.
Stay within the lines , be disciplined.
Jack,
first of all huge Thank You. Your teachings helped me sort something out in my area of specialty (AI). Long ago I knew that sequences is the way to go, but my brain was overfitting to bayesian learning. Your words helped me get out of local minimum.
Bayes is optimal in uncertain environments (given infinite processing power), but priors matter so much more for your decisions. (I know that markets are not uncertain for you. For me they still are.)
Whatever model you are working on it is sooo important to break everything down and get the details straight.
If you can't use logic, use at least very narrow conditional distributions to take into account the CONTEXT. And your goal should be to turn as much of your model into deterministic causal relations as possible.
---
In trading I am still a beginner. I have read and watched A LOT over the last few months. I have filled 3 notebooks so far. I am focusing more on the drills now. Korean professional baduk players do thousands of go problems a day.
I want to find my place somewhere between CashCow and FTT 2 FTT (SCT would be too big of a commitment given my life goals). I am figuring out in what contexts trade from pt 3 to FTT is more optimal for me. In my trading too often FTT 2 FTT turns into [RTL BO] 2 [RTL BO] ( x2x -> y2y ) and this frequently is a loss.
Jack, could you say something more about wash trades? Crow's nest is a nice metaphor but it is difficult to turn this into actions. I am aware that sports memory makes it harder for putting this into words.
What kind of practice would teach me to do enough of wash trades but not too many in particular context.
What kind of math is good for wash trades?
Apart from trading, I am coding my cash cow. I would be eternally grateful if someone could send me additional materials that were not available in the public thread.
Since I won't be moving towards SCT (no DOM, no TS, no all that goodies that you experts use), I am considering using Probabilistic Graphical Models for some variables. Narrow context based distributions P(flaw), P(ftt), P(volume pace shift area), etc. Also something for anticipating steepness better. It is crucial for decision which type of trade to take NOW (or soon):
{1->2, 2->3, 3->FTT, FTT->FTT}
Perhaps more detailed logic to cash cow would make all these unnecessary.
I am also trying to apply this stuff to forex (similar approach to greaterreturn - syntetic volume). This forex VOL is not as bad as people make it to be. x2x 2y 2x. All this stuff is there and it clearly gives you the idea what the market is doing at the moment. I will need to do my work to get forex equivalent of "A moneyvelocity.pdf" and stuff that makosgu did with paces.
first of all huge Thank You. Your teachings helped me sort something out in my area of specialty (AI). Long ago I knew that sequences is the way to go, but my brain was overfitting to bayesian learning. Your words helped me get out of local minimum.
Bayes is optimal in uncertain environments (given infinite processing power), but priors matter so much more for your decisions. (I know that markets are not uncertain for you. For me they still are.)
Whatever model you are working on it is sooo important to break everything down and get the details straight.
If you can't use logic, use at least very narrow conditional distributions to take into account the CONTEXT. And your goal should be to turn as much of your model into deterministic causal relations as possible.
---
In trading I am still a beginner. I have read and watched A LOT over the last few months. I have filled 3 notebooks so far. I am focusing more on the drills now. Korean professional baduk players do thousands of go problems a day.
I want to find my place somewhere between CashCow and FTT 2 FTT (SCT would be too big of a commitment given my life goals). I am figuring out in what contexts trade from pt 3 to FTT is more optimal for me. In my trading too often FTT 2 FTT turns into [RTL BO] 2 [RTL BO] ( x2x -> y2y ) and this frequently is a loss.
Jack, could you say something more about wash trades? Crow's nest is a nice metaphor but it is difficult to turn this into actions. I am aware that sports memory makes it harder for putting this into words.
What kind of practice would teach me to do enough of wash trades but not too many in particular context.
What kind of math is good for wash trades?
Apart from trading, I am coding my cash cow. I would be eternally grateful if someone could send me additional materials that were not available in the public thread.
Since I won't be moving towards SCT (no DOM, no TS, no all that goodies that you experts use), I am considering using Probabilistic Graphical Models for some variables. Narrow context based distributions P(flaw), P(ftt), P(volume pace shift area), etc. Also something for anticipating steepness better. It is crucial for decision which type of trade to take NOW (or soon):
{1->2, 2->3, 3->FTT, FTT->FTT}
Perhaps more detailed logic to cash cow would make all these unnecessary.
I am also trying to apply this stuff to forex (similar approach to greaterreturn - syntetic volume). This forex VOL is not as bad as people make it to be. x2x 2y 2x. All this stuff is there and it clearly gives you the idea what the market is doing at the moment. I will need to do my work to get forex equivalent of "A moneyvelocity.pdf" and stuff that makosgu did with paces.
actually it goes this way.
8 means 8 when I type it.
for me, I have adjusted to market sentiment so strongly that I see these adjacent bars in a very clean and specific aspect of a management system.
Let's say someone goes through looking up the internals and the way fractal interlock on 7 levels. Lets say they "get it"
They get to see the tiny foundation from which deductive reasoning stems.
Say a person is sitting there with this full deck. How does he arrive at the holy grail?
Everything fits into a finite math setting.
Carnap explains, in minute detail and with full glory how to take all the market's offer off the table.
You never spend time dealing cards (the house) nor do you ever have cards dealt to you (think you can be a player using finite math with the variables of a deck of cards or four decks.
"Beat the Dealer" was not a book on card playing. He wrote the book to explain (As an academic would) how the mind can be used (neuroscience) to easily beat the house.
The trip to have the holy grail is having the facility to "read" the market by using your fully differentiated mind.
Or in today's terminology, you use programming based upon RDBMS. Look at several books on topics like SQL or Miran Lipovaca's "Learn You a Haskell for Great Good". We all know the great science that comes out of Slovenia
What is EMG could be allowed to repeat the fifth grade. Could this repetition allow him to discover how a herd of people exhibit only one psychology. Could he begin to see one bar and then figure out how two bars can be rubbed together to create the holy grail. sister Monesoi did not let her student rub sticks together unfortunately.
All that is done in trends is go forward and occasionally have pauses. Knowing that you know a pause from a "going forward" is so difficult for EMG. He definitely cannot do it.
Look at the OP of this thread. Is his home town Ljubljana, too?
Thanks Jack. I do know what you are telling me here.
I have started forest fires rubbing sticks together. One stick leads to another and before you know it things are really cooking.
You can cofe this Paleolithic event disregarding x as why melts and consolidates from the heat, night glows while embers smolder long after you have extracted heat.
You are a really cool guy...Thanks !
bueno verte hoy !!!!
Based upon what you said, there is a shortcut for you.
MAK did do a distribution that is like setting up ten partitions and by light weighting on extreme and doubling down on the four internals, we got the rainbow.
the rainbow enphasizes Pace shifts but they are not what manages a trend's OOE.
Drop Thomas Bayes entirely. just remember this is what lead the financial industry astray and about nothing will ever change this mistake. this consistent prevention they has for taking the market's offer is what gives up the ultimate advantage over the CW.
Since market Pace doesn't set up these regions you need and can get, what does?
Elswhere I posted to a perplexed Fairfield CC drop out. Look at the "W" I gave him. I'm sure he actually drew the "W" so it could give him what you need.
Times Roman script gives you the beginning. But after point 3 of the parallelogram you need a lower case "w" to get the container of the last move of the trend. the "W" has the "w" inside it.
Go look at SQL and see how to make tables of values to put in the columns. RDBMS's are just fields in tables. elswhere I posted about Slovenia (haskell) and how a very humorous guy makes all the tables interrelate by connecting the "not dots" but cells of fields.
Softwatre of RDBMS's has instructions that get things and then compare things and then deposits the comparisons in a chronological table.
For years I have called all of this logging. I also have posted different logs for different reasons.
When you compose the tables, you have all the fields.
The Cash Cow is on six levels of detail. I posted the outer shell as I call it. Inside are more detailed shells just like the Slovenian dolls they sell to Russians.
As you understand about the Cash Cow, said I put the whole thing in a booklet with four kinds of components: text, charts, flow sheets and Excel sheets. the intermediate level was 170 pages. There were many columns on the Excel. The columns introduced the events of a trend. Each symbol column had what you discovered. thomas bayes could not define the symbols as you dicovered. Carnap did though.
In computers, the old slow ones had hardware and it was fixed and took in data and spewed out results.
now we have a fixed hardware that can be "Carnapped" with what is called software.
The simple software set up for market trends is SQL or Haskell type stuff.
relative.....Data Base........ Management .... System
a set of tables is the system.
management is knowing that you know where you are in the trend all of the time. that was explained by one sentence for years.
Database is bars of volume.
Relative is the "W" and the "w" within the "W" after point 3.
the fairfield CC guy can ask his little sister to do what I told him. she can show him how to "read" a chart coming into her little PC. She can always tell him when a "W" gets to point 3. then she can explain to him the "w" inside the "W" after point 3.
In volume, the two double u's fail at the same time in the same place you discovered. Place means field where the row is an event and the column is the correct column being filled in by the RDBMS instuctions.
So a wash trade is done by entering at any time. Hold if you are making money and exit any time in that interval. As time passes pick harder entries from which to exit. This is taking "any time" out of the picture.
Look only at volume to do wash trades.
Only make up a hypothsis set for doing this with volume as the independent variable. you need two HS's.
ultimately you learn to enter when continuation begins in volume.
Pick either volume trough to begin. exit at the next peak. Use the second color (after the trough color) as the money making color.
The first "W" trough begins a BO of the old trend of the dominant
The second "W" trough begins the trip of the last dominant move of the trend.
Neither Covel nor Schwager know any of this.
Put the pieces together. Congratulations.
Jack Hershey, how many years has it been since you've played with a "full deck?"
J.H., do you have a minimum word-count for all of your posts?
Jack Hershey is the reason I have EliteTrader bookmarked.
This is pure joy:
"jack hershey
Occupation: amateur trader, author, architect, EOP service.
Location: Tucson , AZ
Years Trading: 52
What I Trade: Stocks, DJ, ES
I trade applications of an agorithm I created
VT, SCT and SSR. PVT trades stocks 100 cycles per year @ 10% per cycle. there is a 100,000 share cap per stream. SCT trades, intraday, 20 to 40 traversal rades all in all the always on the right side of the market. the net profit yield is 3x ATR daily on the 5 min ES index. SSR does sector rotation in stocks @ 4 % a week for 4 1/2 week holds. "
You guys GOT TO CLICK THIS LINK:
http://www.collective2.com/cgi-perl/system34469863#
It has the track record.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 (10.4%) (20%) +53.0% (71.5%) +76.1%
2009 (7.5%) (35.5%) (46.7%) (282.5%) (169.6%) (20.5%) (26.6%) (45.2%) (1.2%) (45.7%) (31.5%) (13.3%)
2010 (44.5%) (8.2%) (75.1%) (65.8%) (125.4%) (0.8%) (0.8%) (1.7%) (0.9%) (0.8%) (1.2%) (1.1%)
2011 (0.8%) (0.8%) (0.8%) (0.8%) (0.8%) (0.8%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.7%)
2012 (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (1.4%) -
Worst month lost 282%.
Oh, Jack.
This is pure joy:
"jack hershey
Occupation: amateur trader, author, architect, EOP service.
Location: Tucson , AZ
Years Trading: 52
What I Trade: Stocks, DJ, ES
I trade applications of an agorithm I created
VT, SCT and SSR. PVT trades stocks 100 cycles per year @ 10% per cycle. there is a 100,000 share cap per stream. SCT trades, intraday, 20 to 40 traversal rades all in all the always on the right side of the market. the net profit yield is 3x ATR daily on the 5 min ES index. SSR does sector rotation in stocks @ 4 % a week for 4 1/2 week holds. "You guys GOT TO CLICK THIS LINK:
http://www.collective2.com/cgi-perl/system34469863#
It has the track record.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 (10.4%) (20%) +53.0% (71.5%) +76.1%
2009 (7.5%) (35.5%) (46.7%) (282.5%) (169.6%) (20.5%) (26.6%) (45.2%) (1.2%) (45.7%) (31.5%) (13.3%)
2010 (44.5%) (8.2%) (75.1%) (65.8%) (125.4%) (0.8%) (0.8%) (1.7%) (0.9%) (0.8%) (1.2%) (1.1%)
2011 (0.8%) (0.8%) (0.8%) (0.8%) (0.8%) (0.8%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.7%)
2012 (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (1.4%) -
Worst month lost 282%.
Oh, Jack.