Jack Hershey Method Since 2008
- Thread starter bwolinsky
- Start date
Dear Jack!
I hope this finds you well and your health is improving...
If you find the time, I have a bit of confusion regarding the above statement...I have 7 cases (not 8) that are Continuation (c) and 3 that are change (x):
As per the cases, let's say you are long:
A=C
B=X
C=C
D=X
E=C
F=C
G=C
H=C
I=C
J=X
meaning, a stitch against the trade direction is change, but with the trade direction= continuation.
So I come up with 7 cases that are continuation, not 8. The OB would be depending on how it sets up. Perhaps the OB is your number 8?
If you could clear up my misunderstanding, I would be most appreciative!
TYVM,
Vienna
As a meticulous person, Jack left smoke and traps that he hoped we are intelligent enough to figure out the rational of bar mutation on our own feet. Of course, you don't have to believe in my assessment.
I see not all stitches are the same in terms of mode status. I see OB ALWAYS causes change of mode. They all break out of the limits of shadow bars. Oh my god.... What is my rule now? hehe.
Do you know what is a COMPLETE data set?
Anyway, I find him in this subject mislead people to think that it is OK to MADA on price alone. It reminds me about his old controversal SCT one-page write-up using IF1, IF2 and APA rules. The method isn't too bad except sometimes or shall I say oftenly it could break your confidence.
Good luck to your journey.
Mod: You can delete my post if you wish. That is how I see your level of standards.
No.5: MACD and Stoch indicator concept is a very old methodology totally different from the Pattern and your beloved bar mutation methods. It is still very effective, FYI. But the information is a little hard to find.
the ten cards are:
XB
XR
And the group of 8:
FTP
FBP
Sym
Stitch red
Stitch black
Hitch red
Hitch black
And the OB.
A compound of these is the three bar lateral. A lateral can have more bars than 3. If it is 7, then you need to analyze it as an independent sub fractal.
All in the group of 8 reduce to the singletons XB and XR. Sometimes this is not a direct and single coded snippet. the reason is that two reduced adjacent bars can form a new element that is in the group of 8.
Everything above is formed as relative pairs of bars. the coding of this is best done in SQL or equivalent (I mentioned Haskell humorously). These softwares are in the family called RDBMS.
Elsewhee in a thread called "edge" I posted about how a trader partners and uses tools.
All the above is a lagging price indicator system. Price is a lagging indicator of itself.
to demonstrate and prepare, last week, I made daily calls on sunday for the oopen on Monday, on Monday for the oopen on Tuesday, om Tuesday for the open on Wednesday. i may have done a call for the oopen on Thurday on Wdenesday, I can't remember.
To do this leading indicator of price call I used volume to make the call. I did this because there is a pattern that links, uniquely, volume and price.
I also posted my trades for the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, and 24th and maybe the 25th, the day I was to call trades from before the oopen. About 70 some trades were listed over the days preceding my day for calling trades on Paltalk. A couple of people took the trades and many more were confused about how I make money on the open since they cannot do what I do.
I cannot understand your construct. That happens.
One thing is certain and for sure. If you use the 10 cases and you reduce adjacent bars until they are either XB's or XR's you get to see subtrends forming trends. If you then use volume as a leading indicator of price in the relationship of the "Pattern", you can hold and reverse all through the 81 bars of the day beginning with the "call" made the previous day of how to trade the opening bar.
As was pointed out, years ago, people did post charts of my "calls". Before ET, and the webb, I used to do emails (four e mailings a day (some before open "calls" and some during the first 1 1/2 hours as "calls") of my "anticipatory" notes through about 7 levels of distribution. I have met traders who used these notes to trade. It was conventional for my brokers to call their clients right after each of my trades so clients could coattail trade me in those days.
for volume trading as a leading indicator of price, you need to put volume on your charts. To kill visual distortion do NOT use the Japanese rice trader's bar type.
we convert specific duration bars into event oriented bars. Events are defined on the Pattern. when I call live for audiences, I call anticipated events that will happen in the near future. by calling trading in this way, I take all guess work out of making money.
It follows that if there is no guess work, then there is no need for risk evaluation (the risk is zero at all times.) If you look at all the calls I did in this thread, you see that the open entry always was correct as a part of the events of a trend that was carried over from the prior day. Most days I also referred to when the existing trade would end and I also suggested the events mechanisms that would be used.
the group of 8 are pairs that stretch out or slow down time between events. What could be nicer. Reread my instructions to river on the UL's of the group of 8. "Wait" is what I log when a bar is going to be subsumed into a prior bar. This can cut your work in annotating by about 1/2.
I talked with a technician on my platform today in Colorado. They still do ot have the platform interface that is needed so much.
I'm not gong to be able anymore to carry on conversations in ET. I can't count on being available anymore. Sorry.
Quote from Paddler:
As a meticulous person, Jack left smoke and traps that he hoped we are intelligent enough to figure out the rational of bar mutation on our own feet. Of course, you don't have to believe in my assessment.
I see not all stitches are the same in terms of mode status. I see OB ALWAYS causes change of mode. They all break out of the limits of shadow bars. Oh my god.... What is my rule now? hehe.
Do you know what is a COMPLETE data set?
Anyway, I find him in this subject mislead people to think that it is OK to MADA on price alone. It reminds me about his old controversal SCT one-page write-up using IF1, IF2 and APA rules. The method isn't too bad except sometimes or shall I say oftenly it could break your confidence.
Good luck to your journey.
Mod: You can delete my post if you wish. That is how I see your level of standards.
No.5: MACD and Stoch indicator concept is a very old methodology totally different from the Pattern and your beloved bar mutation methods. It is still very effective, FYI. But the information is a little hard to find.
The OB is a mmber of the group of 8 BUT it is just a single bar.
The OB counts s two events in both price and volume.
You think you know that the OB always does........ It may not, if the OOE is an early one. The OB has widespread effects on several of the OOE's, as well.
The indicators were very important in the theory of markets. Unfortunately, their ma's were not where the values in their "indication" congealed.
If a person "lloks at" the different two line indicators, he finds that there are six cases. More than just the six cases, an OOE appears as well.
When a person combines the nature of OOE's with Relative Data Base signalling in a Management System, a lot of new information is generated. Most call these information streams, degrees of freedom.
In the Cash Cow, I introduced a type of consideration that fell by the wayside for others. In fact, my most important post on that subject was deleted by a moderator.
I'll let it go at this fact: sometimes one set of information can get in the way of more important information. The cure for this is stunning. No one in the public has caught the drift of this in any way as yet.
The greatest BIG mistakes ever made in the financial industry and its environs were "averages" and "edges".
While these indicators were composed of averages and averages of averages, they also pointed out other things. Examples of real negative psychological results can be found almost anywhere.
It is really important to examine why and how the average Joe gets nowhere in trading. I mentioned several as "traps" that people said they got caught in.
In past years we brought up WWT and IBGS. Being able to see WWT wilol help you find out more about the OB. So will the IBGS on the differentiating you do on stitches.
As stated before, there are 24 SQL tables required to code in SQL. Some are brief and there are several that require 81 rows (more than one printed page using common fonts).
My languaging is usually in the form of highly annotated displays and copious logs. the logs manually replicate the SQL tables that are required to use the P, V relationship of the market.
Certainly, I have made the "Pattern" available on ET.
Read the edge thread p[osts I made. There I presented, in detail the specifics of analyzing, developing and designing a RDBMS.
When commodities are traded, the sweet spot is intraday. Intraday means many times a day taking profit segment after segment. I use a hold and revese methodology. I never enter and exit as you do.
I position trade stocks. There you see PVT explained on a one pager where the rules are shown in different colors and the tabular support is also coded likewise in color. Recently, a beginning trader did 62 trades with 27k starting capital and for the first three months was earning money at an annualized rate of 150K per year. The ratio of winning to BE or losing trades was 31 to 1. The Sharpe ratio is over 60 plus (As determined by Worden Brothers exhibit staff using the flow logic of the PVT system.
The trader's effectivenessand efficiency improved. In the first 4 months his annualized and cpmpounded rate of captital increase moved from 150K per year to 250 K per year. the intial capital, again, was 27K. This is real money in real markets generating real results. He used a Universe that was constructed and up dated weekly by a team of his colleagues, all amateur. the rules for constructing the universe are widely known and distributed. I have the present Universe in my possession and it is one page long in a portait display. It was provided to me by this same person.
If you have any specific unanswered questions please ask. Any number of people in ET can answer your questions.
Do you need references to learn SQL? Do you need instructions for building a Universe?
There are six levels of the cash cow. You did not understand level 1.
Read my last 5 posts. Explain to me anything that backs up your judgements of me.
My languaging is usually in the form of highly annotated displays and copious logs. the logs manually replicate the SQL tables that are required to use the P, V relationship of the market.
Certainly, I have made the "Pattern" available on ET.
Read the edge thread p[osts I made. There I presented, in detail the specifics of analyzing, developing and designing a RDBMS.
When commodities are traded, the sweet spot is intraday. Intraday means many times a day taking profit segment after segment. I use a hold and revese methodology. I never enter and exit as you do.
I position trade stocks. There you see PVT explained on a one pager where the rules are shown in different colors and the tabular support is also coded likewise in color. Recently, a beginning trader did 62 trades with 27k starting capital and for the first three months was earning money at an annualized rate of 150K per year. The ratio of winning to BE or losing trades was 31 to 1. The Sharpe ratio is over 60 plus (As determined by Worden Brothers exhibit staff using the flow logic of the PVT system.
The trader's effectivenessand efficiency improved. In the first 4 months his annualized and cpmpounded rate of captital increase moved from 150K per year to 250 K per year. the intial capital, again, was 27K. This is real money in real markets generating real results. He used a Universe that was constructed and up dated weekly by a team of his colleagues, all amateur. the rules for constructing the universe are widely known and distributed. I have the present Universe in my possession and it is one page long in a portait display. It was provided to me by this same person.
If you have any specific unanswered questions please ask. Any number of people in ET can answer your questions.
Do you need references to learn SQL? Do you need instructions for building a Universe?
There are six levels of the cash cow. You did not understand level 1.
Read my last 5 posts. Explain to me anything that backs up your judgements of me.
There is only one version of Cash Cow.
However Scottd came up with his EasyLanguage code whatever visual you used for him to code up Cash Cow I'd be interested in seeing the variants but the fact is my trial for Wealth Lab Pro ran out, and every so often I'll come back here to see how it's doing.
If you can explain the other 5 versions intelligibly I'll code it and post the results just as I did here.
At that time there was a question of whether indicators worked.
Scott posted a display
I annotated it correctly.
Then Scott and I engaged in starteing to put together the building blocks.
I posted the intial flow sheet to establish when signals could be read and when they could not. This was the initial position/intraday trading level. Level I.
We agreed on a systematic way to communicate using e-mails and the telephone. It involved, text, logic flow sheets, displays of charts and an Excel record keeping system to keep track of degrees of freedom and the logic relationships of the degrees of freedom (a generation breakdown).
I did post the four principles involved in this type of finite math work. It was deleted almost immediately by a moderator. At that point our team of four participants went underground using e-mails and phone calls.
Levels II through VI built on the deleted principles post.
Three two-line indicators were used for this intraday trading approach. Not much is published on the two-line indicator utility nor is there much published on how to integrate an interlocking set of three two-line indicators.
Wealth Lab is an incomplete system of snippets and tools. I discussed their coding system with them at exhibits, etc.. Fidelity is a sales oriented outfit mostly. It centers specifically on a CW oriented audience. This means and entry/exit orientation is the only approach that can be used in Fidelity and its products.
I notice your sales and marketing efforts here on ET are in parallel to Fidelity's.
Several years ago I made several suggestions to you to ease your transition away from the CW and toward the use of science and reason. Among other things I suggested that you make use of Bloxs (Worden Bros) to do a drag and drop of the level I of the Cash Cow and to do a useful logic set for the PVT one pager. This was to acquaint you with the Sharpe Ratios that systems built using science and reason have.
Your periodic review of an entry/exit version of something you found in ET that uses hold/reversal (Cash Cow, for you, is only a pre/post comparison of your entry/exit fidelity based snippets system that, as you say, makes no money and does not trade on an position or intraday trading basis.
To cut to the chase, the best thing you could do is code up the PVT one pager. Use a Universe that meets the prescribed criteria.
Neither Worden nor Fidelity has the capability to construct Universes. Today, anyone can go to any number of webb sites and with a few strokes get a Universe that is in an order related to "scoring". By using an Excel spread sheet a "hot List may be sorted out that tells you which stocks WILL BE going from 1 to 0 to 7.
By monitoring you have from the end of the DU to FRV transition in volume, a price count down that gives you 1 and 1/2 hours before price begins to move. This is plenty of time for even the slowest of students to be able to "get into" a hold to be able to make 50% of the 20% price volatility of any Universe listed stock.
The annualized results are found by calculating an exponent of the number of turns capital does per year. Use 240 for trading days and use 4 to 6 for the duration of trades (an average of 4 to 6 is 5). The profit per segment is as explained: 50% of 20%.
To get the multiple of initial capital to final capital, use 1 as intial capital and plug in the two values dictated above.
Use this integer result to find out what your inital capital grows to in a year. Do as many years as you wish individually. The final capital of a prior year becomes the intial capital of the next year.
To analyze a year. Make 52 Universes, one for each week. Use the software from the one pager to trade a given amount of inital capital. Do 5 to 10 years. Then find that the numbers you initially calculated have a statisitically significant connection to the test results.
At present, there is no data result on ET for this approach to trading except for one performance result I posted. The hold was 6.6 or 8.8 days (I can't remember which) and the profit per turn was 11.1% The ATS used was on a floppy disk and it originated in Sunnyvale, CA. The author stopped working and mostly travelled to trade and bird watch; he used a satelite feed.
Hi Jack,
don't know if you are still willing and able...
To make things more visual, at least for me, I will try to put your trades on my charts. The note that you scanned in for the trades between June 19th and 21st is not only in low quality but your handwriting is... "challenging".
On your scan I marked everything that is not clear and numbered it (please see attached file) so that it is easier for you to refer to those areas in your reply.
To make it even easier here are the numbered questions again:
1. Probably not important!?
2. Does it say "sentiment" or "entry"?
3. Does that mean "long"?
4. Does it mean "short"?
5. Does it mean "short"?
6. Can't recognize what you wrote.
7. What is the comment next to bar 81?
8. Is it bar "48", "49" or "489"?
9. Is that bar 73 or 78?
Thanks.
don't know if you are still willing and able...
To make things more visual, at least for me, I will try to put your trades on my charts. The note that you scanned in for the trades between June 19th and 21st is not only in low quality but your handwriting is... "challenging".
On your scan I marked everything that is not clear and numbered it (please see attached file) so that it is easier for you to refer to those areas in your reply.
To make it even easier here are the numbered questions again:
1. Probably not important!?
2. Does it say "sentiment" or "entry"?
3. Does that mean "long"?
4. Does it mean "short"?
5. Does it mean "short"?
6. Can't recognize what you wrote.
7. What is the comment next to bar 81?
8. Is it bar "48", "49" or "489"?
9. Is that bar 73 or 78?
Thanks.
Sorry I missed you, Jack. You know I read you ass-siduously. But I have been someone else for two days and that person has you on ignore.
Anyway, I remember that thread. ScottD was one of the dumbest fucks ever to disgrace ET (if that is possible). His stupidity was manifest in that he let you lead him down your algorithmic rabbit hole for days on end. It was the finest slo-mo train wreck I have ever seen on ET. Now in hindsight it was a success built on secret rules ET mods didn't want us schmucks to see? Fuck me, you are good!