JACK HERSHEY METHOD EXPOSED AS FRAUD! *Debated*

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Quote from Trader666:

Look... if this is a good system it shouldn't matter where the data comes from and it should be profitable on stocks too... so how about testing it on a bunch of them?

About the 20000 volume condition... as I said before this only shows the "system" has been optimized to a specific market at a specific time. If it can't be made adaptable (something like x% of a y period moving average of V) then it's worthless.

It's more likely that Hershey's a magic Christmas elf who disco dances than this is a good system.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2228011>
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When people resort to personal attacks to make a point, you know they don't have a point.

It is time to LET IT GO.
 
Time for you to get a sense of humor.
Quote from Tums:

When people resort to personal attacks to make a point, you know they don't have a point.

It is time to LET IT GO.
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P.S. Have a bad day in the markets? Oh I forgot, you don't trade.
Quote from Tums:

When people resort to personal attacks to make a point, you know they don't have a point.

It is time to LET IT GO.
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How about making the volume part adaptable and testing it on stocks then?
Quote from bwolinsky:

LOL.

Anyway, come on, T, these conditions have been on the threads for years, both for the MACD, Stoch and anything else including the volume conditions. I find it unlikely that is pure chance the backtest comes back like this.


<b>NO, It's an elf that spits tobacco while doing the disco in front of the white house on Christmas morning</b>
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Mando, WTF. Just got to say that. WTF. We can talk about two aspects to this:

1)The system is a perfect carbon copy of Scottd's and I purposely made the sell on close unfunctional. Therefore, there's nothing wrong with the coding, and yet you keep thinking you're pointing out something wrong with it.

If you'd like to discuss what's wrong with it, please point out where I went wrong. Since I know you can't, this point doesn't punch holes through anything as it pertains to my coding of the script

2) Data from Fidelity is required for this apparently.
 
Quote from Trader666:

How about making the volume part adaptable and testing it on stocks then?
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I've tried, and I don't see the correlation, BUT, we could get the volume as external series and see how the stocks did then. That is, getexternalseries('.SPX',#Volume); and getexternalseries('SPX,#Close); then we can test on any stock, but I know just recalling some of his statements that the system is designed primarily for the ES.
 
I think I see a problem here. Looks like you are closing the trades on the same bar as the entry:

<hr> *****ENTRIES ON BAR + 1******
if not (lastpositionactive) and (crossovervalue(bar,HersheyStochK,50) ) and (@#Volume[bar-1]>20000) then begin
{ if (@MACDH[bar]>0) then }buyatmarket(Bar+1,'Jacks friend scott d says to buy here');
end;
if not (lastpositionactive) and (crossundervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,50)) and (@#Volume[bar-1]>20000) then begin
{ if (@MACDH[bar]<0) then }shortatmarket(Bar+1,'Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here');
end;

***************THESE SHOULD ALL BE BEFORE THE ENTRY CODE*******
if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (@HersheyStochK[bar]<@HersheyStochD[bar]) and (crossundervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,80)) then begin
sellatmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,'');
end;
******EXIT ON BAR + 1*********,
if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (@HersheyStochK[bar]>@HersheyStochD[bar]) and (crossovervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,20)) then begin
coveratmarket(Bar+1,lastposition,'');
end;
******EXIT ON BAR + 1*****
if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (abs(@HersheyStochD[bar])<1.4) then begin sellatmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,''); end;
******EXIT ON BAR + 1*****
if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (abs(@HersheyStochD[bar])<1.4) then begin coveratmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,''); end;
******EXIT ON BAR + 1*****
if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (lastbar(bar)) then begin sellatclose(Bar,lastposition,'');end;
****POSSIBLE EXIT ON BAR BEFORE!!!!!********
if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (lastbar(bar)) then begin coveratclose(Bar,lastposition,'');end;
****POSSIBLE EXIT ON BAR BEFORE!!!!!********<hr>
 
Quote from Wayne Gibbous:

I think I see a problem here. Looks like you are closing the trades on the same bar as the entry:

<hr> *****ENTRIES ON BAR + 1******
if not (lastpositionactive) and (crossovervalue(bar,HersheyStochK,50) ) and (@#Volume[bar-1]>20000) then begin
{ if (@MACDH[bar]>0) then }buyatmarket(Bar+1,'Jacks friend scott d says to buy here');
end;
if not (lastpositionactive) and (crossundervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,50)) and (@#Volume[bar-1]>20000) then begin
{ if (@MACDH[bar]<0) then }shortatmarket(Bar+1,'Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here');
end;

***************THESE SHOULD ALL BE BEFORE THE ENTRY CODE*******
if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (@HersheyStochK[bar]<@HersheyStochD[bar]) and (crossundervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,80)) then begin
sellatmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,'');
end;
******EXIT ON BAR + 1*********,
if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (@HersheyStochK[bar]>@HersheyStochD[bar]) and (crossovervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,20)) then begin
coveratmarket(Bar+1,lastposition,'');
end;
******EXIT ON BAR + 1*****
if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (abs(@HersheyStochD[bar])<1.4) then begin sellatmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,''); end;
******EXIT ON BAR + 1*****
if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (abs(@HersheyStochD[bar])<1.4) then begin coveratmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,''); end;
******EXIT ON BAR + 1*****
if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (lastbar(bar)) then begin sellatclose(Bar,lastposition,'');end;
****POSSIBLE EXIT ON BAR BEFORE!!!!!********
if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (lastbar(bar)) then begin coveratclose(Bar,lastposition,'');end;
****POSSIBLE EXIT ON BAR BEFORE!!!!!********<hr>
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I'm not disagreeing, but it won't change the backtest. See the crossover and crossunder conditions are unlikely to be true in the same bar for obvious reasons on their crossover or crossunder values. I also don't see any trades being exited on the same bar from the results I posted.
 
Position Symbol Contracts Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price % Change Net Profit Bars Held Profit/Bar Entry Signal Exit Signal Cum Profit MAE % MFE %
Long SDS 40 9/10/2008 12:15:00 PM 70.61 9/11/2008 10:30:00 AM 71.50 1.24 34.95 21 1.66 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here 34.95 -2.52 2.83
Long SSO 50 9/12/2008 10:30:00 AM 57.24 9/12/2008 12:00:00 PM 58.02 1.32 37.78 6 6.30 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 72.73 -0.20 2.35
Long SSO 51 9/15/2008 11:15:00 AM 56.74 9/16/2008 1:45:00 PM 53.24 -6.20 -179.53 39 -4.60 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here -106.80 -11.10 0.00
Long SSO 51 9/16/2008 3:00:00 PM 53.27 9/16/2008 3:45:00 PM 53.74 0.85 23.13 3 7.71 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here -83.67 -0.37 2.94
Long SDS 37 9/17/2008 10:30:00 AM 74.39 9/17/2008 1:00:00 PM 76.07 2.23 61.51 10 6.15 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here -22.17 -0.52 4.67
Long SDS 37 9/18/2008 11:00:00 AM 76.51 9/18/2008 12:15:00 PM 78.39 2.43 68.72 5 13.74 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here 46.55 -0.25 4.05
Long SSO 57 9/18/2008 2:00:00 PM 50.36 9/19/2008 11:15:00 AM 56.80 12.75 365.91 18 20.33 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 412.46 -2.09 19.14
Long SDS 34 10/8/2008 10:45:00 AM 93.81 10/8/2008 12:15:00 PM 95.82 2.12 67.75 6 11.29 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here 480.21 -1.51 4.47
Long SDS 34 10/8/2008 1:45:00 PM 94.88 10/9/2008 11:30:00 AM 98.14 3.42 110.17 20 5.51 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here 590.38 -6.35 6.30
Long SSO 113 10/10/2008 10:30:00 AM 30.14 10/13/2008 2:15:00 PM 32.73 8.53 290.39 44 6.60 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 880.77 -16.89 10.48
Long SDS 41 10/14/2008 11:00:00 AM 88.47 10/14/2008 2:45:00 PM 88.75 0.30 10.79 15 0.72 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here 891.56 -4.72 2.83
Long SDS 37 10/15/2008 3:45:00 PM 99.48 10/16/2008 12:00:00 PM 107.93 8.48 311.96 14 22.28 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here 1,203.52 -0.44 14.25
Long SSO 137 10/16/2008 12:30:00 PM 29.05 10/17/2008 10:30:00 AM 30.58 5.20 207.12 20 10.36 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 1,410.64 -4.23 8.17
Long SSO 147 10/23/2008 10:30:00 AM 28.46 10/23/2008 11:45:00 AM 28.87 1.37 57.42 5 11.48 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 1,468.06 -2.34 4.16
Long SDS 39 10/23/2008 3:45:00 PM 106.42 10/24/2008 11:00:00 AM 109.95 3.30 136.91 9 15.21 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here 1,604.96 -5.75 10.41
Long SDS 39 10/28/2008 10:45:00 AM 110.83 10/28/2008 11:30:00 AM 112.94 1.88 81.45 3 27.15 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here 1,686.42 -0.66 4.56
Long SSO 146 10/29/2008 3:00:00 PM 30.54 10/30/2008 3:30:00 PM 30.99 1.40 62.61 30 2.09 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 1,749.03 -4.88 5.76
Long SSO 178 11/13/2008 10:45:00 AM 25.37 11/13/2008 3:30:00 PM 25.59 0.78 35.43 19 1.86 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 1,784.46 -10.45 4.33
Long SDS 41 11/19/2008 3:45:00 PM 109.78 11/20/2008 11:00:00 AM 116.21 5.84 262.84 9 29.20 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here 2,047.30 -0.99 11.47
Long SSO 248 11/21/2008 12:00:00 PM 19.36 11/24/2008 12:45:00 PM 22.72 17.25 828.36 32 25.89 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 2,875.66 -4.80 21.75
Long SSO 242 12/3/2008 10:30:00 AM 23.03 12/3/2008 12:30:00 PM 24.02 4.23 235.67 8 29.46 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 3,111.33 -0.59 6.71 [/B][/QUOTE]


I just looked here, and as you can see by my trades list, there are no peeking issues because the orders are chronological.

Think about it logically, though:

If you crossover 50, can you really crossunder 50 in the same bar?

If you crossunder 80, can you really crossover 20 same bar?

If you the abs MACD<1.4, are any of these crossover or crossunder conditions going to be true?

You caught me on the crossunder, but otherwise only the 80 could possibly be true. Since we don't see buying and selling on the same bar, we know it hasn't happened.
 
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