JACK HERSHEY METHOD EXPOSED AS FRAUD! *Debated*

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Quote from MandelbrotSet:

If you can't duplicate the results, either bwolinsky made a mistake someplace or this system is super curve fit (my opinion) and performs well while looking through a small window of data.

There might be something here, but I'm not sure this effort is showing what it is.
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Yes, I'm skeptical too. Here is my last stab at this, with settings as BW has indicated:

-Script is the last one posted. Copied exactly.
-Commissions are set to $3 a trade. No slippage.
-Account start $147K Each trade 10% of Equity.
-SPX 15 minute bars, East Coast time. SPX only "trades" from 9:30 - 4:15 EST. Data ouside this period is invalid.
-Data is set as a Future, $50/pt and $2000 margin.
-Last 120 days.

RESULTS
Net Profit: $-51,379
Number of Trades: 110
Winning Trades: 51.82%
Average Profit: $2,275
Average Loss: $3,416

IOW about what you'd expect from a indicator system like this. Could I have some things slightly different than BW? Of course, but why would it be so damn far off?

Some Trades:
<hr>PositionSymbol Contracts Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price % Change Net Profit Bars Held Profit/Bar Entry Signal Exit Signal Cum P
Long SPX15 3 9/3/2008 10:45:00 AM 1,279.19 9/5/2008 3:15:00 PM 1,237.34 -3.27 -6,283.50 72 -87.27 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here -74,635.61 -4.84 0.00
Short SPX15 3 9/8/2008 12:00:00 PM 1,253.98 9/8/2008 2:15:00 PM 1,256.16 -0.18 -333.01 9 -37.00 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here -74,968.62 -0.44 0.55
Long SPX15 3 9/8/2008 2:30:00 PM 1,257.61 9/9/2008 10:15:00 AM 1,262.86 0.41 781.50 10 78.15 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here -74,187.12 -0.45 0.88
Short SPX15 3 9/9/2008 10:45:00 AM 1,256.03 9/9/2008 11:30:00 AM 1,253.58 0.19 361.51 3 120.50 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here -73,825.61 -0.09 0.81
Long SPX15 3 9/10/2008 11:45:00 AM 1,231.79 9/10/2008 2:00:00 PM 1,231.47 -0.03 -54.01 9 -6.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here -73,879.62 -0.22 0.37
Short SPX15 3 9/10/2008 3:45:00 PM 1,236.20 9/11/2008 10:15:00 AM 1,221.23 1.21 2,239.50 5 447.90 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here -71,640.13 0.00 1.99
Long SPX15 3 9/11/2008 11:45:00 AM 1,230.79 9/11/2008 3:00:00 PM 1,236.67 0.47 876.00 13 67.38 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here -70,764.13 -0.69 0.84
Short SPX15 3 9/11/2008 3:30:00 PM 1,231.16 9/15/2008 10:15:00 AM 1,222.38 0.71 1,311.00 33 39.73 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here -69,453.12 -1.94 1.50
Long SPX15 3 9/15/2008 11:00:00 AM 1,233.80 9/16/2008 1:30:00 PM 1,196.76 -3.01 -5,562.01 37 -150.32 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here -75,015.13 -5.23 0.06
Short SPX15 3 9/16/2008 2:00:00 PM 1,191.86 9/17/2008 12:45:00 PM 1,177.02 1.24 2,219.99 22 100.91 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here -72,795.13 -1.86 2.42
Long SPX15 3 9/17/2008 2:30:00 PM 1,182.58 9/17/2008 3:00:00 PM 1,180.10 -0.21 -378.00 2 -189.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here -73,173.13 -0.53 0.53
Short SPX15 3 9/17/2008 3:45:00 PM 1,169.15 9/18/2008 12:00:00 PM 1,157.89 0.96 1,683.00 12 140.25 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here -71,490.13 -1.29 1.67
Long SPX15 3 9/18/2008 1:45:00 PM 1,165.08 9/19/2008 11:00:00 AM 1,238.55 6.30 11,014.51 16 688.41 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here -60,475.62 -0.89 8.22
Short SPX15 4 9/19/2008 2:00:00 PM 1,249.97 9/19/2008 3:30:00 PM 1,245.24 0.38 940.00 6 156.67 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here -59,535.62 -0.25 1.02
Long SPX15 4 9/23/2008 10:15:00 AM 1,217.66 9/24/2008 2:00:00 PM 1,191.40 -2.16 -5,258.00 42 -125.19 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here -64,793.63 -2.85 0.29
Short SPX15 4 9/24/2008 2:15:00 PM 1,188.29 9/26/2008 10:45:00 AM 1,195.28 -0.59 -1,404.00 40 -35.10 Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here -66,197.63 -2.67 0.72
Long SPX15 4 9/26/2008 1:00:00 PM 1,197.60 9/26/2008 2:00:00 PM 1,201.67 0.34 808.01 4 202.00 Jacks friend
Long SPX15 4 9/29/2008 1:30:00 PM 1,171.54 9/30/2008 12:30:00 PM 1,139.51 -2.74 -6,412.01 23 -278.78 Jacks friend<hr>
 
I don't know what you're doing. If you're using WL, you should have no problem duplicating my results. If you're not in WL, and you're in esignal, I don't know what to tell you. Data is different between us.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

I don't know what you're doing. If you're using WL, you should have no problem duplicating my results. If you're not in WL, and you're in esignal, I don't know what to tell you. Data is different between us.
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I'm using WL version 4. But I am using Esignal data.

Anybody else out there with WL duplicate BW's results?
 
Quote from Trader666:

If you're talking about the volume condition: Volume[bar-1]>20000, there's nothing magic about a volume of 20000. This only shows the "system" has been optimized to a specific market at a specific time.

Even in the same market, that number won't always be "right" as participation and conditions change. If it can't be made adaptable (something like x% of a y period moving average of V) then it has no value.
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Exactly ... I came to the exact same conclusions myself.

See, contrary to spydertrader or whatever sock puppet alias he is using (or if not him, some random Jack Hershey supporter who uses his scripts to trade stocks with ... :p ) says, we aren't just here to bash-bash-bash Jack Hersehy.

We're trying to give the process some intelligent thought to see if there is anything valid to it ... and like I said before, this exercise hasn't shown that to be the case.

Check your PM's, I think this horse is more than dead.
 
Quote from Wayne Gibbous:

I'm using WL version 4. But I am using Esignal data.

Anybody else out there with WL duplicate BW's results?
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Listen to me, quit using E-signal as your data provider. Please switch to Fidelity's data. Create another datasource with just .SPX 15 minute Fidelity data, k? On your point, I've received several thank yous for this piece, so I can only assume that they were able to duplicate it.
 
Quote from Wayne Gibbous:

But I am using Esignal data.
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This is the problem, and most likely a problem with anybody not with Fidelity.

If for years they kept insisting it was this profitable, maybe they really had something, but didn't show it until one of the inner circle leaked it to somebody who started the thread here.

Just a thought. I'd still like to see more trades, so I guess we'll come back to this in a year or so.
 
Quote from Index Maximus:

I see your approach to this analysis is truly rigorous.
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Is there something wrong with showing a profitable backtest? You have the program, and yet you doubt I'm not getting those results?
 
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