JACK HERSHEY METHOD EXPOSED AS FRAUD! *Debated*

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A better answer to your question about peeking, T, and anyone else who asked, is the fact that there is volatility in the equity curve. Generally on intraday systems when the curve is too smooth I conclude it is peeking. We have a bit of volatility in this version which suggests there's no look ahead bias, and couple that with the fact that all of the indicators exist when you place the order, then there's no peeking involved here.
 
With a large number of trades I'd agree but you only have 21 trades and 20 are wins with just 1 loss (according to your 12-17-08 06:43 PM post).
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2226407#post2226407
Quote from bwolinsky:

A better answer to your question about peeking, T, and anyone else who asked, is the fact that there is volatility in the equity curve. Generally on intraday systems when the curve is too smooth I conclude it is peeking. We have a bit of volatility in this version which suggests there's no look ahead bias, and couple that with the fact that all of the indicators exist when you place the order, then there's no peeking involved here.
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P.S. Could you run it on a few stocks (also 15 min bars) that didn't track the S&P? Thanks.
Quote from bwolinsky:

A better answer to your question about peeking, T, and anyone else who asked, is the fact that there is volatility in the equity curve. Generally on intraday systems when the curve is too smooth I conclude it is peeking. We have a bit of volatility in this version which suggests there's no look ahead bias, and couple that with the fact that all of the indicators exist when you place the order, then there's no peeking involved here.
More...
 
Let's try some different testing. Get out of Futures mode and set this up:

Commission 0.01/share.
No Slippage. I want to see the actual trade values and I normally only use limit orders anyway.
Share size 1000 shares.
$500K Account. I, again, want to see all the trades.
I copied your script and commented out the Short trades. I just buy SSO for the long trades.
SSO 15 minute bars. My time is West Coast, but the data is the same, just add 3 hours for NY time.

I get a profit of $4905 from 118 trades. 55.93% winners. Avg profit $715. Add slippage and it is a loser.


This is just a few bars. ET won't show it all.
Code: 
Position	Symbol	Shares	Entry Date	Entry Price	Exit Date	Exit Price	% Change	Net Profit	Bars Held	Profit/Bar	Entry Signal	Exit Signal	Cum Profit	MAE %	MFE %	

Long	SSO15	1,000	8/21/2008 7:30:00 AM	60.29	8/21/2008 10:45:00 AM	60.52	0.35	211.00	13	16.23	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,537.91	-0.89	0.73
Long	SSO15	1,000	8/22/2008 9:45:00 AM	61.67	8/22/2008 12:00:00 PM	61.97	0.45	280.00	9	31.11	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,817.91	-0.16	0.94
Long	SSO15	1,000	8/26/2008 9:00:00 AM	60.11	8/26/2008 12:45:00 PM	60.25	0.20	120.00	15	8.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,937.91	-1.08	0.35
Long	SSO15	1,000	8/28/2008 6:30:00 AM	61.90	8/27/2008 12:45:00 PM	61.17	-1.21	-750.00	1	-750.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,187.90	0.00	0.00
Long	SSO15	1,000	8/29/2008 10:30:00 AM	62.08	8/29/2008 11:45:00 AM	61.99	-0.18	-112.00	5	-22.40	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,075.90	-0.42	0.10
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/3/2008 7:45:00 AM	61.05	9/3/2008 12:45:00 PM	60.65	-0.69	-420.00	20	-21.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		5,655.90	-2.18	0.02
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/5/2008 9:30:00 AM	56.57	9/5/2008 12:15:00 PM	57.06	0.83	470.00	11	42.73	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,125.91	-0.32	1.75
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/8/2008 11:30:00 AM	58.90	9/8/2008 12:45:00 PM	59.89	1.64	965.20	5	193.04	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		7,091.10	-0.90	1.70
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/10/2008 8:45:00 AM	56.42	9/10/2008 11:00:00 AM	56.40	-0.07	-40.00	9	-4.44	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		7,051.11	-0.44	0.74
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/11/2008 8:45:00 AM	56.33	9/11/2008 12:00:00 PM	56.88	0.94	531.50	13	40.88	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		7,582.61	-1.40	1.74
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/11/2008 12:45:00 PM	56.98	9/11/2008 12:45:00 PM	58.08	1.90	1,080.00	1	1,080.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		8,662.61	-0.02	2.09
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/12/2008 10:30:00 AM	57.70	9/12/2008 12:30:00 PM	58.23	0.88	508.00	8	63.50	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		9,170.61	-0.43	1.50
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/15/2008 8:00:00 AM	56.63	9/15/2008 12:45:00 PM	53.33	-5.86	-3,320.00	19	-174.74	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		5,850.61	-6.11	0.19
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/16/2008 8:00:00 AM	53.14	9/16/2008 10:30:00 AM	53.24	0.15	80.00	10	8.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		5,930.61	-2.30	1.49
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/16/2008 11:45:00 AM	53.16	9/16/2008 12:30:00 PM	53.74	1.05	560.00	3	186.67	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,490.61	-0.17	3.14
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/17/2008 11:30:00 AM	51.83	9/17/2008 12:00:00 PM	51.77	-0.15	-76.90	2	-38.45	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,413.71	-1.02	1.31
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/18/2008 7:30:00 AM	51.29	9/18/2008 12:45:00 PM	53.15	3.59	1,840.00	21	87.62	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		8,253.71	-7.39	5.65
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/23/2008 7:30:00 AM	54.74	9/23/2008 12:30:00 PM	53.51	-2.28	-1,250.00	20	-62.50	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		7,003.71	-5.35	0.38
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/24/2008 10:15:00 AM	52.23	9/24/2008 11:00:00 AM	52.15	-0.19	-100.00	3	-33.33	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,903.71	-0.44	1.01
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/24/2008 11:30:00 AM	52.14	9/24/2008 12:00:00 PM	51.96	-0.38	-200.00	2	-100.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,703.71	-0.44	0.92
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/24/2008 12:15:00 PM	52.15	9/24/2008 12:45:00 PM	52.07	-0.19	-100.00	2	-50.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,603.71	-2.01	0.10
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/25/2008 12:30:00 PM	54.33	9/25/2008 12:45:00 PM	53.91	-0.81	-440.00	1	-440.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,163.71	-1.99	0.39
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/26/2008 10:00:00 AM	52.67	9/26/2008 11:00:00 AM	53.05	0.68	360.00	4	90.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		6,523.71	-0.19	1.48
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/29/2008 10:30:00 AM	50.38	9/29/2008 12:45:00 PM	47.14	-6.47	-3,260.00	9	-362.22	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		3,263.71	-10.96	0.10
Long	SSO15	1,000	9/30/2008 7:15:00 AM	47.79	9/30/2008 9:30:00 AM	47.34	-0.98	-470.00	9	-52.22	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		2,793.71	-1.34	0.54
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/1/2008 9:30:00 AM	48.63	10/1/2008 10:15:00 AM	48.77	0.25	120.00	3	40.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		2,913.71	-0.08	1.99
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/2/2008 11:15:00 AM	46.23	10/2/2008 12:45:00 PM	45.10	-2.49	-1,150.00	6	-191.67	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		1,763.71	-2.94	0.00
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/6/2008 12:15:00 PM	38.83	10/6/2008 12:45:00 PM	40.98	5.49	2,130.00	2	1,065.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		3,893.70	-1.06	6.21
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/8/2008 10:15:00 AM	36.16	10/8/2008 11:45:00 AM	36.36	0.50	179.00	6	29.83	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		4,072.70	-2.49	4.40
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/9/2008 10:30:00 AM	34.59	10/9/2008 12:45:00 PM	30.33	-12.37	-4,280.00	9	-475.56	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		-207.30	-14.54	0.98
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/10/2008 7:15:00 AM	30.01	10/10/2008 12:45:00 PM	30.37	1.13	339.70	22	15.44	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		132.40	-16.53	7.03
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/13/2008 11:45:00 AM	32.93	10/13/2008 12:45:00 PM	35.74	8.49	2,795.00	4	698.75	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		2,927.40	-0.33	8.56
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/14/2008 12:30:00 PM	35.18	10/14/2008 12:45:00 PM	35.16	-0.11	-40.00	1	-40.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		2,887.40	-1.53	2.13
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/16/2008 9:15:00 AM	28.98	10/16/2008 12:45:00 PM	31.05	7.07	2,050.00	14	146.43	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		4,937.40	-4.00	8.07
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/17/2008 12:00:00 PM	32.44	10/17/2008 12:45:00 PM	30.89	-4.83	-1,566.00	3	-522.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		3,371.40	-5.15	1.60
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/20/2008 8:45:00 AM	31.98	10/20/2008 11:30:00 AM	32.53	1.66	530.00	11	48.18	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		3,901.40	-0.31	3.19
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/21/2008 11:30:00 AM	33.34	10/21/2008 12:00:00 PM	33.36	0.00	-0.10	2	-0.05	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		3,901.30	-0.66	1.41
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/23/2008 6:30:00 AM	28.35	10/22/2008 12:45:00 PM	28.43	0.21	60.00	1	60.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		3,961.30	0.00	0.00
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/23/2008 7:15:00 AM	28.40	10/23/2008 8:30:00 AM	28.88	1.62	460.00	5	92.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		4,421.30	-2.15	4.37
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/23/2008 12:15:00 PM	27.57	10/23/2008 12:45:00 PM	28.60	3.66	1,010.00	2	505.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		5,431.30	-3.88	4.46
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/24/2008 8:30:00 AM	26.98	10/24/2008 12:15:00 PM	27.15	0.56	150.20	15	10.01	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		5,581.50	-5.23	3.97
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/27/2008 8:15:00 AM	26.94	10/27/2008 10:15:00 AM	26.94	-0.07	-20.00	8	-2.50	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		5,561.50	-3.75	1.48
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/28/2008 9:45:00 AM	25.91	10/28/2008 12:45:00 PM	30.16	16.33	4,230.00	12	352.50	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		9,791.50	-1.35	16.98
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/29/2008 11:45:00 AM	30.48	10/29/2008 12:45:00 PM	29.20	-4.27	-1,300.00	4	-325.00	Jacks friend scott d says to buy here		8,491.50	-4.69	5.97
Long	SSO15	1,000	10/30/2008 8:15:00 AM	30.92	10/30/2008 11:45:00 AM	30.98	0.13	40.00	14	2.86	Jacks friend scott d says t
 
Quote from Trader666:

P.S. Could you run it on a few stocks (also 15 min bars) that didn't track the S&P? Thanks.
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Therein lies the catch. Then the volume condition won't hold.
 
Quote from LordOfAll:

This is so pointless.. Jack and Spyder are poor as church mice.. does anyone actually think they are sitting on a profitable system when not one of their followers or themselves has ever made any money

They are blue collar, they spend all their time on the net and they are broke! :p
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I got to ask you, how do you know? Not that I don't have a mind to think it's not true, but how do you know?
 
Quote from Trader666:

With a large number of trades I'd agree but you only have 21 trades and 20 are wins with just 1 loss (according to your 12-17-08 06:43 PM post).
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2226407#post2226407
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I wouldn't put much weight to it either, were it not for the fact that it was an extremely high win percentage. In my experience, if it keeps winning, chances are that it is close to historical norms.

I'm planning on waiting to see the next 10 trades, which could take a few months.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

As you say, it was copied, so it was already out there anyway, I guess.

My take is forget about the sell on close.
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no it wasn't already out there. It's coded by ScottD.
 
Maybe this was curve fitted in hindsight and the whole thread where the code was "developed" is a scam.

If this can't be tested on/doesn't work with other tradables, it's worthless IMO.
Quote from bwolinsky:

I wouldn't put much weight to it either, were it not for the fact that it was an extremely high win percentage. In my experience, if it keeps winning, chances are that it is close to historical norms.

I'm planning on waiting to see the next 10 trades, which could take a few months.
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