JACK HERSHEY METHOD EXPOSED AS FRAUD! *Debated*

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Quote from bwolinsky:

The attachment is an exact duplicate of SCOTTD's AKA Jack Hershey TS easylanguage.

It's written in WL so we have something to work with, and the script has these results, since 6/1/2006:
</b>Long + Short</b>
Starting Capital $147,000.00
Ending Capital $202,751.03
Net Profit $55,751.03
Net Profit % 37.93%
Annualized Gain % 13.49%
Exposure 0.85%

Number of Trades 105
Avg Profit/Loss $530.96
Avg Bars Held 45.42

Winning Trades 43
Winning % 40.95%
Gross Profit $123,744.15
Largest Winning Trades $29,588.97
Avg Profit $2,877.77
Avg Bars Held 76.26
Max Consecutive 3

Losing Trades 62
Losing % 59.05%
Gross Loss ($67,993.13)
Largest Losing Trade ($7,734.99)
Avg Loss ($1,096.66)
Avg Bars Held 24.03
Max Consecutive 5

Max Drawdown ($48,485.48)
Max Drawdown Date 10/10/2008
Max Drawdown % -20.10%
Max Drawdown % Date 10/10/2008

APD 19.7908
APAD 107.2647
Wealth-Lab Score 1,261.53
RAR 1,578.97
MAR 0.6711
Profit Factor 1.82
Recovery Factor 1.1498
Sharpe Ratio 0.9248
Sortino Ratio 4.845
Ulcer Index 8.3615
WL Error Term 5.174
WL Reward Ratio 2.6078
Luck Coefficient 10.2819
Pessimistic Rate of Return 1.3686
Equity Drop Ratio 0.2989
K-Ratio 0.0063
Seykota Lake Ratio 0.065
Expectancy 0.1546
Expectancy Score 3.1717
Max Losers Held 1
Max Winners Held 1

<b>Long Only</b>
Starting Capital $147,000.00
Ending Capital $150,327.36
Net Profit $3,327.36
Net Profit % 2.26%
Annualized Gain % 0.88%
Exposure 0.10%

Number of Trades 53
Avg Profit/Loss $62.78
Avg Bars Held 7.96

Winning Trades 20
Winning % 37.74%
Gross Profit $32,642.91
Largest Winning Trades $9,076.52
Avg Profit $1,632.15
Avg Bars Held 12.65
Max Consecutive 3

Losing Trades 33
Losing % 62.26%
Gross Loss ($29,315.55)
Largest Losing Trade ($4,225.51)
Avg Loss ($888.35)
Avg Bars Held 5.12
Max Consecutive 5

Max Drawdown ($15,065.73)
Max Drawdown Date 9/8/2008
Max Drawdown % -9.43%
Max Drawdown % Date 9/8/2008

APD 3.0609
APAD 79.576
Wealth-Lab Score 815.4884
RAR 900.4178
MAR 0.0937
Profit Factor 1.1135
Recovery Factor 0.2209
Sharpe Ratio 0.2341
Sortino Ratio 9.016
Ulcer Index 2.1072
WL Error Term 1.32
WL Reward Ratio 0.6693
Luck Coefficient 5.5611
Pessimistic Rate of Return 0.7363
Equity Drop Ratio 0
K-Ratio 0.0031
Seykota Lake Ratio 0.0106
Expectancy -0.1031
Expectancy Score -2.4526
Max Losers Held 1
Max Winners Held 1

<b>Short Only</b>
Starting Capital $147,000.00
Ending Capital $199,423.67
Net Profit $52,423.67
Net Profit % 35.66%
Annualized Gain % 12.75%
Exposure 0.78%

Number of Trades 52
Avg Profit/Loss $1,008.15
Avg Bars Held 83.6

Winning Trades 23
Winning % 44.23%
Gross Profit $91,101.25
Largest Winning Trades $29,588.97
Avg Profit $3,960.92
Avg Bars Held 131.57
Max Consecutive 4

Losing Trades 29
Losing % 55.77%
Gross Loss ($38,677.58)
Largest Losing Trade ($7,734.99)
Avg Loss ($1,333.71)
Avg Bars Held 45.55
Max Consecutive 6

Max Drawdown ($48,485.48)
Max Drawdown Date 10/10/2008
Max Drawdown % -20.39%
Max Drawdown % Date 10/10/2008

APD 30.3035
APAD 119.0599
Wealth-Lab Score 1,305.90
RAR 1,640.28
MAR 0.6256
Profit Factor 2.3554
Recovery Factor 1.0812
Sharpe Ratio 0.96
Sortino Ratio 11.775
Ulcer Index 8.5992
WL Error Term 4.562
WL Reward Ratio 2.7957
Luck Coefficient 7.4702
Pessimistic Rate of Return 1.5723
Equity Drop Ratio 0.3181
K-Ratio 0.0063
Seykota Lake Ratio 0.075
Expectancy 0.1649
Expectancy Score 1.8456
Max Losers Held 1
Max Winners Held 1

You should be able to see that Jack's Script is mostly a short script, and that his longs are ineffective at best, adding no risk adjusted value to the script.
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Going back to this and using the trades list, I see a lot of 0.25% MAE, so a breakeven stop at 0.2% might help
 

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Quote from rolextrader:

I bet this has been a real windfall for you at C2.
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To be honest, I think most are turned off by how vocal I am there, and they go for the 1,000,000% APR system 30 days out with 5% drawdown, you know?

No one is looking for the steady disciplined trader. Just hot hands.

<b>Furthermore</b>, you'd expect at least a thousand people to try it at a measley $7.50 per month, right?
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

Going back to this and using the trades list, I see a lot of 0.25% MAE, so a breakeven stop at 0.2% might help
More...

So much for that, it didn't even help.

Any other thoughts?
 
The PVAD score here:
http://wl4.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/WealthLab.DLL/editsystem?id=51950
is based on Jack's concept of the p,v relation in the attached paper.

I backtested it and found its performance to be poor. Then Hershey and his goons claimed it should only be applied to a prescreened "universe" of stocks, even though it says nothing about that in the paper.
Quote from bwolinsky:

[BAlso, it appears there's more indicators available in the script than what I'm using, so anybody know how to use the
PVAD score? or the price volume AD whatever score? [/B]
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Good work bwolinsky, you called Jack Hershey on his game on his own terms, beat the stuffing out of the fourth or fifth attemp to code his pseudo-auto trading system, and showed everyone here what a real auto trading system looks like.

I love how everytime Jack Hershey makes a move he steps-in-shit. :p

Neoxx is a laughing stock and his boot camp is a bust.

ScottD and the other so-called auto trading system developers have been made to look like fools.

Ah, there is still a place for sanity around here. :)
 
P.S. Hershey's concept on the last page of the paper of buying the "0 to 7 turn" and selling at the "4 to 3 turn" is broken because exits are few and far between so I tested this exiting after 1,2,3,4, and 5 days. The latter worked best but it still sucked.
Quote from Trader666:

The PVAD score here:
http://wl4.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/WealthLab.DLL/editsystem?id=51950
is based on Jack's concept of the p,v relation in the attached paper.

I backtested it and found its performance to be poor. Then Hershey and his goons claimed it should only be applied to a prescreened "universe" of stocks, even though it says nothing about that in the paper.
More...
 
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