Jack Hershey Method: Beginner Rockets

oddiduro · May 30, 2006

Quote from Chicken Little:

Oddiduro,

Do you wait intrabar till volume is >= 10,000 or if intrabar pro rated volume is at the run rate of >= 10,000 ?

For example if the stoch is go and the macd is go and 1 min has elapsed and the volume for the 1 min is 2000 then is the trade a go ? I believe the concept of pro rating the volume is somewhere or other in a hershey thread. The beginner rockets document doesnt address the pro rated volume so perhaps in beginner mode I should just wait till the 5 min bar totals >-10,000. Thanks.

You can pro rate volume, that is an option. I think that waiting for the actual number is a more solid signal, IMO.

Trader666 · May 30, 2006

Quote from oddiduro:

This is why I hinting at 666 that backtesting will fail this method. When volume > 10000, the system needs to enter AT THAT TIME.

If the MACD is correct, and the stoc is correct, then if volume is correct the trade needs to be entered on the next 2 pair. I don't know of a backtester that can do this. Assumptions need to be made with a backtester that do not reflect what the method tells you to do.

This model will fail in a non-trending market because to the end of bar entries.

Best Regards
Oddi

I see you're adding conditions after the fact again. Every rule increases the fit of the system to the data. And entering mid-bar is NOT in the beginner's guide. Pinning you guys down is like trying to nail Jello to a wall. What you describe CAN be backtested. Even if the software doesn't directly support it, one could easily do a workaround with faster bars. But it's a double edged sword because the system will be more sensitive and while that may have looked great on today's chart AFTER THE FACT, it might produce more whipsaws tomorrow. Not to mention that a system that's so temperamental isn't robust.

Trader666 · May 31, 2006

Quote from oddiduro:

The point that I was trying to make is that a backtester is no comparison to the human brain.

The only point you made is that you don't understand backtesting. Done intelligently, one can quantify and objectively compare and contrast variations that would take forever to watch unfold bar-by-bar in real time. Then the brain can focus on the nuances of the variations that test out best. That way you're partnering your brain with your computer and getting the best of both worlds. You guys are using your computers to draw pretty pictures instead of crunch numbers and congratulating yourselves for it.

cnms2 · May 31, 2006

Now I see where's your problem ...

Quote from Trader666:

The only point you made is that you don't understand backtesting. Done intelligently, one can quantify and objectively compare and contrast variations that would take forever to watch unfold bar-by-bar in real time. Then the brain can focus on the nuances of the variations that test out best. That way you're partnering your brain with your computer and getting the best of both worlds. You guys are using your computers to draw pretty pictures instead of crunch numbers and congratulating yourselves for it.

oddiduro · May 31, 2006

Quote from cnms2:

Now I see where's your problem ...

It is truly a testment to Mr. Hershey that he is such a troll magnet.

cnms2 · May 31, 2006

Horoscope ...

<font face="comic sans ms">Get ready for extra attention, because people are finally going to take notice of what you say. In every situation at work or school, your suggestions are the ones that people will act upon. It's rapidly become clear that you know what you're talking about! It takes some people a while to warm up to innovative ideas, so be patient when you're stuck in a group of folks who have old-fashioned ways of thinking. They will come around soon enough.</font>

hypostomus · May 31, 2006

666, you're wasting your time. They don't have a clue about backtesting. Please leave them in the dark. Dumb liquidity is better than smart.

nononsense · May 31, 2006

Quote from hypostomus:

666, you're wasting your time. They don't have a clue about backtesting. Please leave them in the dark. Dumb liquidity is better than smart.

hypo,

hush..., please stop giving away the store!

nononsense · May 31, 2006

Quote from oddiduro:

It is truly a testment to Mr. Hershey that he is such a troll magnet.

Must be the NLP doing this to him.

PS: oddi, you seem to have picked up some of Jack's quirks. As with your "testment", Jack never managed to spell "Lipschitz" either. Must have been a little hang up of his stint at IBM's.

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easyrider · May 31, 2006

You guys are always making demands on Jack for evidence his method works. I would love to see some evidence that any of you are taking advantage of the "dumb liquidity" with your backtesting methods, or any method at all for that matter.