Ivan's Trade Thread, part II

Quote from davidmaria1:

Curious as to the Switz tax codes. Any advantages?
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There are, but from what I've learned the Swiss taxation system is complex. It depends in which canton you live, then there are federal taxes, municipal taxes, wealth tax, fiscal deals, and most of it seems to be negotiable! I read somewhere that some taxes are even based on what you spend.

In other words it's a minefield and probably best left to an expert, those guys usually earn their keep by what they can save you :)
 
Quote from downrivertrader:

Is your method for scalping posted somewhere in this thread?
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It isn't, no. In fact there's not really a written method as such, it's loosely based around a mixture of fundamentals, technicals, and risk/money management.

Believe it or not trading is extremely simple once you're in the right frame of mind to accept the risk and play a probability.....
 
Quote from SchraderTrader:

Do any of you hold through the weekend? If so and you feel like offering input, please go to the post right before this and check out the chart and offer how you would trade it.
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Isn't CAD a commodity currency? I don't trade it very often so not much help really, sorry, it's screwed me once too many times!

You've got a couple of nice trend lines there though, it wouldn't take a lot to see if/when the trade is no longer viable.
 
Ivan and others...

What's the group here thinking on dollar overall. I am having a difficult time with buying dollar strength but as always I will not fight what is actually happening.



Looking at the EURUSD, I was a buyer near the lows on Friday. I am watching the 1.35 area very carefully. If we build value back above this level, I think we will see 1.65 or better in the EURO next.

I am looking for opportunities to get long.
 
I have been posting this chart here off on on for a few years. It has been interesting to follow it. It nailed the end of the year tops in the Euro and the fall is now building value near the median line. Interesting we moved back above it, and with the price action on Friday we pulled back to value. Now I wonder if we are headed back up to the top or down to the bottom over the next several months. As usual it is clear as mud, but if you close your eyes, well the trend is up. Not easy to position long at these levels for some. Including me, makes me want to throw up lately.
 

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Heres the trendline in realtime on a daily chart for clarity. Looks like a long set up here, but lines in the sand don't put money in the bank. My approach on this is that we are at a a solid value area to begin 2009. My longer term price distribution analysis confirms this also. My goals here are to get positioned one way or the other. Flip a coin, but seems like up to me.
 

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Here is another long term chart of the USD index. I have been posting this one for a few years also. This channel is plotted by connecting the highs in 1985 to the highs in 2001. You can see that the recent run up in the dollar moved down from fair value. Likely many longer time frame sellers jumped on this as most of us were unaware of what the big picture looks like. My guess is the thought is that we are heading down to the 60 area somewhere. In order to change this view the end of the year 2008 highs would need to be taken out and heavy short covering would begin to occur. Logically, it looks like the dollar is seeking a lower level but logic always blows up my trading account.

I like to keep these long term views in perspective. I don't trade them heavily, rather it just gives me a frame of mindset to manage day to day operations.
 

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I mean, how the hell can people buy the dollar when we are spiraling out of control. The logic that the dollar is the best of the worst alternatives is a very dangerous play long term in my opinion. Let's face it we are in a secular downtrend. It seems like many forget this and just jump on whatever headline is happening at the moment.
 
Hedging question.

I'm short USDCAD and GBPUSD - can I consider this a hedge since I'm both long the USD and short the USD? Or in forex is the difference in pairs too great?

I figure at the very least this would be a hedge against a black swan.... if another 9/11 type of thing happened then my long USD would suffer while the short USD would thrive.

Thoughts?

Thanks
 
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