Ivan's Trade Thread, part II

Quote from davidmaria1:

Sooooooo, you like that pair, eh Cable?:D
Some fine scalping.
Scalping was an art performed by native Americans, like the ones displaced by our pilgrims, your ancestors, who landed here in 1620, not more than 75 miles from where I live. True story. So, the whole thing sorta comes full circle. On Thursday we eat turkey, and give thanks. For stuff.
I worked pretty much all day, traded briefly Monday and Tuesday, up 64 pips, looks like you found all the sweet spots.
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Well have a great Thanksgiving!

Yep that pair rocks, and it's fast unlike some pairs (Eur/Gbp moves like 2 pips every 2 hours, lol)

The scalps were really a no-brainer in that 100-pip range but I didn't take advantage of the longs as I was just shorting, and then after all that I missed the breakout 300 pips down just 10 minutes after the last trade!


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wow...wow...wow CableTrader...this is awesome...please, what is up with the Eur/Aud?...why do you like it?..how do you "monitor" or watch it?...do you take into consideration the Aud/Usd or Eur/Usd to make a trade in the Eur/Aud?...can you explain more about the Eur/Aud...thanks...hey, great trading!!!!
 
Quote from increasenow:

wow...wow...wow CableTrader...this is awesome...please, what is up with the Eur/Aud?...why do you like it?..how do you "monitor" or watch it?...do you take into consideration the Aud/Usd or Eur/Usd to make a trade in the Eur/Aud?...can you explain more about the Eur/Aud...thanks...hey, great trading!!!!
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Thanks increasenow!

I like it because right now it's about the fastest moving pair for a scalper, quick in and out for 5, 10, or 20 pips within seconds sometimes.

Fortunately Oanda don't seem to object to my trading style, just check out the volume of trades and entry/exit times on the blotters below, not one of those trades was reversed. That dispels the conspiracy theories that no-one can make money trading retail forex with a bucketshop marketmaker or that they'll shut you down if you scalp or consistently make money!

I'm a great believer in the KISS principle and try not to over-analyse, I don't need a whole bunch of reasons and confirming indicators to enter a trade, just as long as my risk is sensible and well controlled then it's nearly impossible to lose money overall.

There are some really simple and obvious trading opportunities in forex like ranges and short-term trends, that little Eur/Aud chart I posted is a typical example of simple trading. It's in a nice obvious range and it's really easy to see where to have a stop if it breaks out, all anyone has to do is allow the market plenty of room and not have a stop too close, work out risk and trade size, and then just trade back and forth like ping-pong, that's really as simple as it gets and pretty much anyone can do it. If I didn't have a short Eur/Aud bias I would have traded it long as well as short and in theory made twice as many pips, that was my fault and a good example of personal opinion getting in the way of what the market was actually telling me.

Contrary to popular belief trading is extremely simple, it's us that screw it up because we can't believe it really is that simple, if it was then surely everyone would be doing it and making a ton of money, right?

All I can tell you is that I'm no market guru and I have no specialist knowledge or secret indicator. I'm of average intelligence and I don't know anything about complicated algorithms or market dynamics in fact if anything I'm somewhat of a trading simpleton. Despite all that I'm able to produce consistent results like the ones below so if I can do it pretty much anyone can.

Are my methods and trading style the best? No, definitely not, there are thousands of better traders than me. Am I happy with what I make? Absolutely, even though I leave hundreds of pips on the table!


If I can do it then seriously, anyone can.....

Intraday trading blotters 16th October - 28th November:

+96 pips.......+61 pips
+527 pips.....+223 pips
+175 pips.....+103 pips
+199 pips.....+105 pips
+132 pips.....+124 pips
+99 pips.......+666 pips
+181 pips.....+78 pips
 
Quote from rsikit:

thre is no really good central website, you need to look at the daily weekly and other time frames like 4 hr and 60 min and draw the s/r lines yourself
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On that note, many charting programs have s/r and pivot levels as a study.

If you're going to do pivot calcs then do some research and decide what hours you want to base them on. I think the consensus is midnight to midnight, but frankly, I would consider using the session you will be trading (ie if you're in the US use US Session pivots).

IMHO previous days' O/H/L/C's are much more important than pivot levels. But that's just me, I am no trading expert. Just a Mississippi Boy keeping it simple. You would seriously be amazed at what kind of shit works in this game. I keep fooling around with various things just for shits and giggles and it keeps proving over and over that it's about mindset and discipline.

You aren't going to out-sophisticate these huge funds and banks, don't even try. Find a way to bring them down to your level, and then beat their ass.
 
Morning.
EUR/AUD. Looks like it may have drawn another (increasenow) unsuspecting poor soul into its steely grasp!:D

I have spent many days (weeks?)recently studying this pair. The funny thing is, I studied the breakout patterns. The chart above illustrates the 300-plus drop after the range from the previous larger move.
Therein lies the rub! I was studying the breakout, while Cable was pulling $ in the range. Those 100 pip wiggles I spoke of in prev. posts are actually quite profitable, if played properly. Obviously, no pair is entirely predictable, but this particular set gives enough range if one has enough nuts.
 
Quote from davidmaria1:

Morning.
EUR/AUD. Looks like it may have drawn another (increasenow) unsuspecting poor soul into its steely grasp!:D

I have spent many days (weeks?)recently studying this pair. The funny thing is, I studied the breakout patterns. The chart above illustrates the 300-plus drop after the range from the previous larger move.
Therein lies the rub! I was studying the breakout, while Cable was pulling $ in the range. Those 100 pip wiggles I spoke of in prev. posts are actually quite profitable, if played properly. Obviously, no pair is entirely predictable, but this particular set gives enough range if one has enough nuts.
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Hey David (I'm guessing you're the David and not the Maria as I've never asked, just assumed! :) )

God Bless your Eur/Aud Wiggles!

The more I trade this pair the more I like it, quick not-so-small repetitive profits sure add up. I find it's quite intense trading though as it moves so fast, there's hardly time to bring up an order ticket before it's time to close the trade. Done right there was an awful lot of money to be made on these three ranges but damn if I didn't miss all the break-outs! Slippage I've found is a little crazy but I've stopped looking at fill prices and getting bothered about it, they can have an extra few pips if they want :)

I think the best plan is to keep trades relatively small and stops fairly wide, there were a couple of tries at breaking out above the range and I've noticed spikes can be fierce.

After studying it what's your take on price action?


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Still forming a reply on price action.
Check this, though. I have had a demo with TOS for approx 18 months, once in a while I open it, their charts go a looong way back. Recent update looks to include a depth-of-market style trade grid and possibly a time and sales grid. Cool. I'll fire it up tomorrow night, see if it works. Screenshot below.

http://i35.tinypic.com/64j6rl.jpg[/IMG]
 
The pair seems to favor consolidation. It likes trends, in my view, and seems to obey trendlines, with the spikes of course. I'm not sure you could swing trade it, without huge stops because of those spikes, assuming one were to set stops at 50% of daily range for example. More to come.
 
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