cabletrader,
I am aware of the current effects and mechanisms playing into the currencies. I am not taking part just now - because it is simply too risky. I did buy into a small bounce - but that was because the setup was there for me.
Otherwise - going against what I think is the fundamental view on the currencies - it is not something that I will do, even when I see a drop and opportune short is coming. I simply do not venture into the "technical side" of trading - I only do tape/price reading (slightly looking at chart levels, formations) and more fundamental news analysis. I am not into any Elliot wave, Murray turtle, CCI, MACD or anything else... they are just false representations anyway - just like my understanding of markets. They work at certain moments, but I prefer my more nimble approach to trading - simply scalping, and being nervous about it.
My longer term trades are good for entry - but in these troubling times - getting the projected exit levels right for the size of waves - that is something I am not adept at. Therefore I think a simple trailing stop could be best for any of my "longer trades" when I decide to take one again.
My fundamental view is that Euro is much stronger than the USD - and that what we are seeing are simply effects of the turmoil... (repatriation, delevering, emerging market hedging etc) That is first and foremost why I am not going short Euro, but I have thought about it at times when seeing a short wave coming.
Reaver,
be very, very reluctant using strong leverage in these conditions. Maybe adding to a successful trade is ok sometimes, but starting highly leveraged is very dicey. You need to be extremely careful - although you can get super profits - the risk is likewise. I got lucky on a â¬10mn scalp earlier this month - and it got me more than â¬53k - but I won't be doing a leverage like that again. I got a â¬-100k drawdown on several trades (longs + scalps) earlier too, and was leveraged roughly â¬7mn - which was just too much as well, when the market started reversing on me. I made roughly as much on scalping as I would have made on the two long trades, but then got the drawdown - and the long trades which were +700pips EURJPY and +300pips EURUSD at the top went negative (and from a roughly â¬150k profit into a loss along with those scalps) - really stupid when I think about it (should have used a large timeframe trailing stop).