Ivan's Trade Thread, part II
- Thread starter Ivanovich
- Start date
Quote from Gringinho:
Sam,
permabear Euro? or permabull USD?
Ha, when I make up my mind, I'll let you know!
But seriously, now that my little hourly uptrend has been denied, I'm looking at the 23% bounce from the most recent large decline on the daily and am looking to revist lows, if not make new ones.
It doesn't make any sense to me speaking in terms of fundies...but this isn't a new thing.
Will anyone be trading the EURO open?
Did you also have one to many to drink yesterday Gringinho? Your little stories seems more than just a deprivation of sleep 
Do you still have that EUR/USD long trade (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=136300&perpage=1&pagenumber=62)?
I think I'm done for this week. My limit order long will remain active at 1.3370. I'm aiming for a test of the 61.8 retracement on the weekly / monthly charts next week.
Do you still have that EUR/USD long trade (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=136300&perpage=1&pagenumber=62)?
I think I'm done for this week. My limit order long will remain active at 1.3370. I'm aiming for a test of the 61.8 retracement on the weekly / monthly charts next week.
TradingWise,
hehe - yes - still on that long trade - and it's worth â¬12k still...
It did start to look promising in JPY yesterday (weakening) - but it was because of the absolute havoc over there. I see that commentators are increasingly mentioning BoJ and MOF ... so something IS brewing. As we know from experience, the markets are given fair warnings ahead of JPY interventions.
Been up for around 3 hours, and I find the market conditions are too erratic still -- not possible to scalp, so I'm not doing anything other than reading up on news. I will see how the US open is in a couple of hours, but probably will do no trades today.
If EURJPY convinces above 135 or something - then it will be more tradeable. I am biased towards stronger Euro as a "reasonable emerging trend," so I guess that says how I would trade...
UK and US names are said to be selling Euros to keep it down - according to IFR Thomson Reuters. It is the continued borrowing of time to stem the fallout in the US, in my opinion. It helps financial stability too of course, and is yet again a sign of some repatriation...
But China will have 9% growth down from 11% and Brazil will have 7% down from 8%... so it's not exactly misery everywhere...
I don't think the US can shore up the USD continuously like this. Also, Bush will give a speech into 55 minutes into the US RTH - that will probably be bloody murder, as nothing that comes out of his mouth is taken as a positive - just lies, deception or ignorance.
Looking at 5min EURJPY is totally hopeless, 15min is a little calmer... 30min is also pretty useless.
In fact 15min and 3hour bars are the only useful readings on the EURJPY right now.
EURJPY is probably the best deal out there right now... Maybe I should shift from EURUSD to EURJPY - but I think I might ride both for long term, although that is doubling my exposure. It does make sense to have a long term EURJPY trade, though...
11:57 CET done... cloned my EURUSD trade into EURJPY for double exposure at 134.27 ... target +1000pips , stop at -500pips and â¬2mn.
I will scalp EURJPY when it looks "sane".
Maybe I can even think of +2000pips for the EURJPY, but that will definitely take some time...
hehe - yes - still on that long trade - and it's worth â¬12k still...
It did start to look promising in JPY yesterday (weakening) - but it was because of the absolute havoc over there. I see that commentators are increasingly mentioning BoJ and MOF ... so something IS brewing. As we know from experience, the markets are given fair warnings ahead of JPY interventions.
Been up for around 3 hours, and I find the market conditions are too erratic still -- not possible to scalp, so I'm not doing anything other than reading up on news. I will see how the US open is in a couple of hours, but probably will do no trades today.
If EURJPY convinces above 135 or something - then it will be more tradeable. I am biased towards stronger Euro as a "reasonable emerging trend," so I guess that says how I would trade...
UK and US names are said to be selling Euros to keep it down - according to IFR Thomson Reuters. It is the continued borrowing of time to stem the fallout in the US, in my opinion. It helps financial stability too of course, and is yet again a sign of some repatriation...
But China will have 9% growth down from 11% and Brazil will have 7% down from 8%... so it's not exactly misery everywhere...
I don't think the US can shore up the USD continuously like this. Also, Bush will give a speech into 55 minutes into the US RTH - that will probably be bloody murder, as nothing that comes out of his mouth is taken as a positive - just lies, deception or ignorance.
Looking at 5min EURJPY is totally hopeless, 15min is a little calmer... 30min is also pretty useless.
In fact 15min and 3hour bars are the only useful readings on the EURJPY right now.
EURJPY is probably the best deal out there right now... Maybe I should shift from EURUSD to EURJPY - but I think I might ride both for long term, although that is doubling my exposure. It does make sense to have a long term EURJPY trade, though...
11:57 CET done... cloned my EURUSD trade into EURJPY for double exposure at 134.27 ... target +1000pips , stop at -500pips and â¬2mn.
I will scalp EURJPY when it looks "sane".
Maybe I can even think of +2000pips for the EURJPY, but that will definitely take some time...
GW will prob say something to the effect of "be calm,don't panic",
It's no surprise his credibility here in the US, and abroad, has been a bit lacking, to be polite. OK, he's a clown. An ass-clown.
It's no surprise his credibility here in the US, and abroad, has been a bit lacking, to be polite. OK, he's a clown. An ass-clown.
Nice timing start on the EURJPY trade, but I wish I had done it yesterday from sub 134 - not that it matters when shooting for +1000pips... and that is the nice thing - when you increase timeframes - a little timing is not that important - it brings calm into the trades and scales up what news details are important.
In short - the big news are the most important, as well as the accumulated effects... anyone who have been working with prediction modelling knows how it works with sliding windows, moving averages etc - you get accumulated effects into the prediction system.
For me - the inherent integrity of the Euro against the USD is most important, as well as the JPY concerns for Japan. Therefore it ultimately makes a lot of sense for at least +1000pips from here... Japan also has a lot of reserves, and can afford to do this - as well as it making a lot of sense for continued exports from Japan into weaker consumer markets... They simply CANNOT afford to let the JPY become too strong. Also, Japan has a lot of increasing near markets in Asia which will help them ride out the worst of this. As I mentioned - China is not exactly facing a recession...
In short - the big news are the most important, as well as the accumulated effects... anyone who have been working with prediction modelling knows how it works with sliding windows, moving averages etc - you get accumulated effects into the prediction system.
For me - the inherent integrity of the Euro against the USD is most important, as well as the JPY concerns for Japan. Therefore it ultimately makes a lot of sense for at least +1000pips from here... Japan also has a lot of reserves, and can afford to do this - as well as it making a lot of sense for continued exports from Japan into weaker consumer markets... They simply CANNOT afford to let the JPY become too strong. Also, Japan has a lot of increasing near markets in Asia which will help them ride out the worst of this. As I mentioned - China is not exactly facing a recession...
Nice timing start on the EURJPY trade, but I wish I had done it yesterday from sub 134 - not that it matters when shooting for +1000pips... and that is the nice thing - when you increase timeframes - a little timing is not that important - it brings calm into the trades and scales up what news details are important.
In short - the big news are the most important, as well as the accumulated effects... anyone who have been working with prediction modelling knows how it works with sliding windows, moving averages etc - you get accumulated effects into the prediction system.
For me - the inherent integrity of the Euro against the USD is most important, as well as the JPY concerns for Japan. Therefore it ultimately makes a lot of sense for at least +1000pips from here... Japan also has a lot of reserves, and can afford to do this - as well as it making a lot of sense for continued exports from Japan into weaker consumer markets... They simply CANNOT afford to let the JPY become too strong. Also, Japan has a lot of increasing near markets in Asia which will help them ride out the worst of this. As I mentioned - China is not exactly facing a recession...
Scalping the EURJPY as well will also be fun, but I fear most of the trades will have to be position trades overnight with tight targets and stops - locking in profits after babysitting the trades, and then taking a rest. Scalps should never be let go negative - as the doubling up, averaging down I did yesterday.... it worked - but it is extremely risky and was simply lucky - especially given the erratic market conditions. That makes it essentially so that I never start a scalp as "catching a knife"... I am also pretty careful about not entering a scalp from calm waters which reflect a "past trading median" -- i.e a comfort level of positives and negatives... there should be some pain or exuberance into market price when starting a scalp, in my opinion. That makes it easier to catch waves... try to "feel the pain" of the others in the markets... hehe.
Looking at the 3hour bars for the EURJPY the trade looks pretty solid. Would like it settled above 135 for proper confirmation, though...
In short - the big news are the most important, as well as the accumulated effects... anyone who have been working with prediction modelling knows how it works with sliding windows, moving averages etc - you get accumulated effects into the prediction system.
For me - the inherent integrity of the Euro against the USD is most important, as well as the JPY concerns for Japan. Therefore it ultimately makes a lot of sense for at least +1000pips from here... Japan also has a lot of reserves, and can afford to do this - as well as it making a lot of sense for continued exports from Japan into weaker consumer markets... They simply CANNOT afford to let the JPY become too strong. Also, Japan has a lot of increasing near markets in Asia which will help them ride out the worst of this. As I mentioned - China is not exactly facing a recession...
Scalping the EURJPY as well will also be fun, but I fear most of the trades will have to be position trades overnight with tight targets and stops - locking in profits after babysitting the trades, and then taking a rest. Scalps should never be let go negative - as the doubling up, averaging down I did yesterday.... it worked - but it is extremely risky and was simply lucky - especially given the erratic market conditions. That makes it essentially so that I never start a scalp as "catching a knife"... I am also pretty careful about not entering a scalp from calm waters which reflect a "past trading median" -- i.e a comfort level of positives and negatives... there should be some pain or exuberance into market price when starting a scalp, in my opinion. That makes it easier to catch waves... try to "feel the pain" of the others in the markets... hehe.
Looking at the 3hour bars for the EURJPY the trade looks pretty solid. Would like it settled above 135 for proper confirmation, though...
Now that we are talking about the US presidency, what effect will the victory of either candidate have on the US dollar? Maybe a rally either way if the results are not disputed (recounts, etc)?