Ivan's Trade Thread, part II
- Thread starter Ivanovich
- Start date
I got burnt on the yen appreciation the first time around and finally said to hell with this. Now I'm building massive yen positions as of yesterday night. Let the world burn, it's not gonna get me this time. And all of my positions have break even stops right now.
The bunker is up, operational and I'm eating my rice with my HAM radio on and my SIG at my side.
The bunker is up, operational and I'm eating my rice with my HAM radio on and my SIG at my side.
My profits are diminishing on my long trade - â¬15.5k now ...
but also remember for tight stops - the trading hours are really not favourable for every kind of cross - so the risk will be different.
Also - from the markets today - people will give some time to thought, which might make things even more anaemic. As for JPY - it seems likely that Japan will do something - but WHEN - that is the whole key... the slow creep is something that always happens when there is no real direction - and can be ignored in my opinion.
I think below EURJPY 135.50 is a very good entry for a long position, but since it has a retrace - a newer low is not unlikely. Stops will be run when getting close to other lows - that is just the nature of this beast - but not if "something starts happening" first, of course...
Adjust risk and size accordingly.
Looking at EURJPY with 30min bars it looks promising for some lower tests and then a bounce. The bounce because that is the rational way for the markets and Japan to behave - but they will inflict pain and insert confusion first - like has happened with this trace back.
Packet radio communication and SIG Sauers are appropriate at code orange... DEFCON 3 or lower.
but also remember for tight stops - the trading hours are really not favourable for every kind of cross - so the risk will be different.
Also - from the markets today - people will give some time to thought, which might make things even more anaemic. As for JPY - it seems likely that Japan will do something - but WHEN - that is the whole key... the slow creep is something that always happens when there is no real direction - and can be ignored in my opinion.
I think below EURJPY 135.50 is a very good entry for a long position, but since it has a retrace - a newer low is not unlikely. Stops will be run when getting close to other lows - that is just the nature of this beast - but not if "something starts happening" first, of course...
Adjust risk and size accordingly.
Looking at EURJPY with 30min bars it looks promising for some lower tests and then a bounce. The bounce because that is the rational way for the markets and Japan to behave - but they will inflict pain and insert confusion first - like has happened with this trace back.
Packet radio communication and SIG Sauers are appropriate at code orange... DEFCON 3 or lower.
Long eur/usd @1.3598 stop@1.3580 target@1.3700
if stopped out, will reverse to short position @ 1.3575 for a target@1.3460
if stopped out, will reverse to short position @ 1.3575 for a target@1.3460
Prophet,
what made you make that trade - just interested in your thinking...
Personally I thought it was a very close stop for a small anaemic range which has already been touched 1.3580... i.e the risk of touching your stop is very great - compared to the possibility of reaching 1.37 first - in my opinion that is. Also, the counter trade seems very much prone to a whiplash effect from spiking down - running stops and then bouncing back up.
what made you make that trade - just interested in your thinking...
Personally I thought it was a very close stop for a small anaemic range which has already been touched 1.3580... i.e the risk of touching your stop is very great - compared to the possibility of reaching 1.37 first - in my opinion that is. Also, the counter trade seems very much prone to a whiplash effect from spiking down - running stops and then bouncing back up.
OK, the spike down in EURJPY was a signal that something is going to be happening. Better watch a little and see how it plays out... I am looking for long entries here - but it doesn't completely look like the right time. Maybe I'll just go a little lighter wrt risk on EURJPY and then hold it over the weekend. Something WILL happen to the JPY - no doubt - they have to do something in my opinion.
Conversely for EURUSD which will follow, since the USDJPY is more complex in my opinion - but the risk is that EURJPY and EURUSD might be caught in a USDJPY push higher... I.e that an intervention is made on that USDJPY - first(!) - for some pain downwards in EURUSD and EURJPY...
I guess I need to follow the USDJPY a little to see what is emerging. Blaeh... hehe
Ehhh - the USDJPY at around 100 means that EURJPY and USDJPY are very alike ... getting a bit late in the night for me.
Some very good entry in the EURJPY particularly IMO - JPY is strong but intervention likely, and even a whiff would scare any opposition since the Japanese have massive cash reserves and who want to be losing more money in these markets - i.e risk aversion and skittishness is very great...
Just got in below 134 for EURJPY .. will set sights not too far above, maybe 200-300 pips. I'll make it 136 for >200pips with â¬2mn.
Looks kind of promising - but I need to get some sleep now - so this will have to go on autopilot I guess.
If anyone followed my reasoning - I think the creep and then spike has been a fishing for short-betters and stops... now the motion will be contrary...
If it goes +50pips quickly, then I'll probably set a +10pip stop before I go to bed ... but then again maybe not. Right now - it's 02:49 CET and +25pips on the trade. Getting a little cold feet 02:52 but... hmm, will see. I need some higher highs on the bars now to confirm my position trade, preferrable over 134.50 so that I can lock in +10pips and go to bed.
Conversely for EURUSD which will follow, since the USDJPY is more complex in my opinion - but the risk is that EURJPY and EURUSD might be caught in a USDJPY push higher... I.e that an intervention is made on that USDJPY - first(!) - for some pain downwards in EURUSD and EURJPY...
I guess I need to follow the USDJPY a little to see what is emerging. Blaeh... hehe
Ehhh - the USDJPY at around 100 means that EURJPY and USDJPY are very alike ... getting a bit late in the night for me.
Some very good entry in the EURJPY particularly IMO - JPY is strong but intervention likely, and even a whiff would scare any opposition since the Japanese have massive cash reserves and who want to be losing more money in these markets - i.e risk aversion and skittishness is very great...
Just got in below 134 for EURJPY .. will set sights not too far above, maybe 200-300 pips. I'll make it 136 for >200pips with â¬2mn.
Looks kind of promising - but I need to get some sleep now - so this will have to go on autopilot I guess.
If anyone followed my reasoning - I think the creep and then spike has been a fishing for short-betters and stops... now the motion will be contrary...
If it goes +50pips quickly, then I'll probably set a +10pip stop before I go to bed ... but then again maybe not. Right now - it's 02:49 CET and +25pips on the trade. Getting a little cold feet 02:52 but... hmm, will see. I need some higher highs on the bars now to confirm my position trade, preferrable over 134.50 so that I can lock in +10pips and go to bed.
Short at 133.40. Get some sleep, I'll watch it for you.
Wow,
David - I would seriously reconsider that one...
EURUSD going opposite of EURJPY - more risk to my EURJPY trade - but I got in with â¬1mn on the EURUSD at 1.3557
That EURUSD scalp looks very weak, but ... will decide roughly 03:06 CET.
Ooops, my EURJPYs got stopped... at +15 though on 134... but still.
03:02 and I stopped the EURUSD at -3pips. Oh well.
My long EURUSD from 1.3478 is only â¬+11k now...
03:05 - and reentered at 134.20 w/â¬2mn - now with wide stops and 136 target ... G'night.
Hehehe - not g'night after all --- 03:09 and +100 pips on the EURJPY already ...
03:11 thinking on locking in +30pips profits. Hmmm.
Here is the ethical dilemma again - I started another wild, crazy sized scalp - but I won't even... on the EURUSD. The problem is that I made the EURJPY and EURUSD trades almost at the same time ... just 90 seconds after my EURJPY. Oh well... set a +75pips target of 1.3635 of that one ... the size was insane...
03:16 .. shit - when writing here the EURUSD spiked to 1.3626 and then reverts ... the shit of trying to type and trade... argh.
03:18 trailing that EURUSD stop now up to 1.3595 for minimum +35pips.
03:21 hate that .. should have gotten out on that spike up...
03:22 and it was stopped through 1.3595 .. bah, but it's getting too late for me ..
will let the â¬2mn EURJPY ride to 136 - stops at 134.50 right now.
03:23 .. whoa! EURUSD weirdness -- what kind of shakeout was that?
03:24 kind of makes me doubt the 136 on EURJPY .. but it's a safe winner anyway... at least +30pips.
David - I would seriously reconsider that one...
EURUSD going opposite of EURJPY - more risk to my EURJPY trade - but I got in with â¬1mn on the EURUSD at 1.3557
That EURUSD scalp looks very weak, but ... will decide roughly 03:06 CET.
Ooops, my EURJPYs got stopped... at +15 though on 134... but still.
03:02 and I stopped the EURUSD at -3pips. Oh well.
My long EURUSD from 1.3478 is only â¬+11k now...
03:05 - and reentered at 134.20 w/â¬2mn - now with wide stops and 136 target ... G'night.
Hehehe - not g'night after all --- 03:09 and +100 pips on the EURJPY already ...
03:11 thinking on locking in +30pips profits. Hmmm.
Here is the ethical dilemma again - I started another wild, crazy sized scalp - but I won't even... on the EURUSD. The problem is that I made the EURJPY and EURUSD trades almost at the same time ... just 90 seconds after my EURJPY. Oh well... set a +75pips target of 1.3635 of that one ... the size was insane...
03:16 .. shit - when writing here the EURUSD spiked to 1.3626 and then reverts ... the shit of trying to type and trade... argh.
03:18 trailing that EURUSD stop now up to 1.3595 for minimum +35pips.
03:21 hate that .. should have gotten out on that spike up...
03:22 and it was stopped through 1.3595 .. bah, but it's getting too late for me ..
will let the â¬2mn EURJPY ride to 136 - stops at 134.50 right now.
03:23 .. whoa! EURUSD weirdness -- what kind of shakeout was that?
03:24 kind of makes me doubt the 136 on EURJPY .. but it's a safe winner anyway... at least +30pips.