Quote from piezoe:
trading_time has guessed 1200 on the S&P just like every other experienced trader in the world because that is where the next resistance is. It is purely a technical call. Just look at the chart.
Does that mean the market will go straight up to 1200. No, of course not. That's a reasonable target at this point. In the meantime you are a fool to go short until the market tells you to. The first step in telling you to will be a close below the trendline. We haven't had that yet. Then the next step will be either a move further down on reasonable volume, or a retrace to the trend-line with failure to close above it. At that point, as always, it is a judgment call. But you shouldn't even consider going short until one of those "maybe" events take place, or you wake up to find people jumping out of twelve story buildings.
If you are just so nervous that you just have to be short something, then find some hideous, hapless, hopeless stock like maybe Blockbuster and lay a short put diagonal on it, or something, with the long leg deep and far out, if that is what it is going to take to stop your urge to second guess the market. The market will tell you when it might be time to short! It hasn't said anything along those lines yet, so stop this nonsense about shorting the market or i will have to slap you..