It's time to change horses. Or my switch from scalping to systematic.

Quote from mm19:

it is bull market so one would expect shorting will not work that great.

Do you incorporate overall market trend in you decision making ?
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Overall market directions does not really matter in day trading.
 
Quote from RedDuke:

Overall market directions does not really matter in day trading.
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Backtesting proves that for a fact. Keith Fitzken's work indicates best systems for intraday trading rely upon counter-trend strategies.
 
Quote from mm19:

it is bull market so one would expect shorting will not work that great.

Do you incorporate overall market trend in you decision making ?
More...

Hi mm19 -)
Well, If I knew it before or knew where/then the trend will be finished, I would trade only one side. But I don't =)

I found also that the most rewarding trades (at least for my system) happens before classical definition of a trend turning.
While trying to follow so described "well established" trend tends to near to breakeven result in the long run.

The system going to be just fine if corrections used to be more healthy also. I have rules for stop adjusting or even reversal trades and would be happy to be breakeven in times such a moving (which I do not consider as a healthy one) occurs.

Actually by following system I had to make a reversal trade for the current trade, see the picture, yellow line is where it should be taken: stop loss and reversal 158.33 and close long 160.050.
I didn't made it due to my bear bias/lack of discipline, but that another story and the journal reflects what I'm actually doing not what I shoulda woulda do -))
 

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Quote from tickmagnet:

Medved , ti otkuda postuesh?:)
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Privet, Tickmagnet -)

 íàñòîÿùèé ìîìåíò ñî ñâîåãî ìåñòà çèìîâêè â Äîìèíèêàíå -)
 
Looks like I made a "perfect" killing with this trade. Stop was taken out at 161.24 and it it is the very top of a day, month, year...

Summary:

1 trade: short 156.83 , stop 161.24 = 4,41 or approx. -2,75%.
With a 1:3 leverage, account size = -8,25%

New pending short signal at 159.6
 

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Quote from Medveshonok:

Hi mm19 -)
Well, If I knew it before or knew where/then the trend will be finished, I would trade only one side. But I don't =)

I found also that the most rewarding trades (at least for my system) happens before classical definition of a trend turning.
While trying to follow so described "well established" trend tends to near to breakeven result in the long run.

The system going to be just fine if corrections used to be more healthy also. I have rules for stop adjusting or even reversal trades and would be happy to be breakeven in times such a moving (which I do not consider as a healthy one) occurs.

Actually by following system I had to make a reversal trade for the current trade, see the picture, yellow line is where it should be taken: stop loss and reversal 158.33 and close long 160.050.
I didn't made it due to my bear bias/lack of discipline, but that another story and the journal reflects what I'm actually doing not what I shoulda woulda do -))
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see what you mean and i agree beeing knife catcher myself.
however, here is another one... market is trending on large timeframes and provides little joy for shortterm traders. what if this persists for months, or even years as it may be long grinding bull. do you have any brake ?
 
Quote from mm19:

see what you mean and i agree beeing knife catcher myself.
however, here is another one... market is trending on large timeframes and provides little joy for shortterm traders. what if this persists for months, or even years as it may be long grinding bull. do you have any brake ?
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While speaking about knife catching, I think that's completely another case, it's when you are buying or selling new high/low of the day/week etc. expecting your fill will be the best for centuries, you know.. :p

And what about trends persisting for months, as I already said before - that's what reverse trades are incorporating in system for. I strongly believe they are necessary for a system to be stable in different market conditions. I mean if the signal is failed it should fail significantly.

I'm working now on utilization the same principles my 4hour system has for the intraday trading CL, using 3 min charts there. So it is a great field for statistics here. And with every new day it shows the great importance to make reverse trades. I guess the trick here is about having negatively correlated methods.
 
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