It's the Pattern, Stupid!

[Autodidact]

Sometimes, but not always

Since there is no such thing as a 100% accuracy signal a trader would be looking for so called confirmation to increase accuracy at the expense of an inferior fill and producing say X expectancy.

However, since confirmation will not guarantee success, one must also compare X with a signal that has no "confirmation" to obtain say Y, and then decide if X > Y or Y > X as far as expectancy goes.

 

[oraclewizard77]

Let's talk a little about how to actually determine what are support and resistance patterns. Real support and resistance are formed by multiple candle bottoms and tops.

For it to be considered a real support, price needs to have traveled all the up to a resistance level before coming all the way back down and then make multiple candles and candle bottoms at that area before bouncing all the way back up to the resistance level. Same with resistance. Price needs to have previously traveled all the way down to a support level before coming all the way back up plus again having multiple candles and multiple candle tops formed before going back down.

Please note that is not a text book definition of support and resistance but how I am defining it. I am enclosing an ES chart where red lines are places where one could possibly short and green lines are places where one could possible go long.

Note that in this chart I have removed all of my indicators that I use to have a second confirmation on taking the trade plus I removed the actual trade that I took.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Let's talk a little about how to actually determine what are support and resistance patterns. Real support and resistance are formed by multiple candle bottoms and tops.

For it to be considered a real support, price needs to have traveled all the up to a resistance level before coming all the way back down and then make multiple candles and candle bottoms at that area before bouncing all the way back up to the resistance level. Same with resistance. Price needs to have previously traveled all the way down to a support level before coming all the way back up plus again having multiple candles and multiple candle tops formed before going back down.

Please note that is not a text book definition of support and resistance but how I am defining it. I am enclosing an ES chart where red lines are places where one could possibly short and green lines are places where one could possible go long.

Note that in this chart I have removed all of my indicators that I use to have a second confirmation on taking the trade plus I removed the actual trade that I took.

Please describe if you would the nature of the longs and shorts and the appropriate stop placements.

 

[oraclewizard77]

If initiating a short, stops would be place above the red line. If a long, stops would be placed below the green line. However, what I mean by stop is that you have a standard stop and if your stop would be wider than the standard stop then you are not for example getting long close enough to the green line.

However, you would not take any of these trades if you did not also use the same indicators that I use to give you a 2nd confirmation that the lines would hold.

The standard stops and targets must be determined through back testing.

Please describe if you would the nature of the longs and shorts and the appropriate stop placements.

 

[schizo]

Confirmation is an illusion of security.

It really depends on what "confirmation" means. Does it hinge on the previous bar's low or high, or previous support or resistance...or somewhere in between? Al Brooks offers a great way to overcome this nuisance by offering H1, H2, L1 and L2, which act as "signal bars". That's right, you need a signal before confirmation.

 

[Q3D]

It really depends on what "confirmation" means. Does it hinge on the previous bar's low or high, or previous support or resistance...or somewhere in between? Al Brooks offers a great way to overcome this nuisance by offering H1, H2, L1 and L2, which act as "signal bars". That's right, you need a signal before confirmation.

H1s, H2s, L1s, and L2s can only be labeled and confirmed with an after-the-fact analysis of price action, there is always a bull and bear perspective. Signal bars on the 5-minute time frame do not show any evidence of the market's alleged fractal nature. Signal bars can also be buy/sell climaxes, potential final flags, e.g. with a 5-minute bull bar closing on its high tick, there is no way to be confident these labels are valid enough to justify placing a trade with moderate or high probability.

 

[Autodidact]

It really depends on what "confirmation" means. Does it hinge on the previous bar's low or high, or previous support or resistance...or somewhere in between? Al Brooks offers a great way to overcome this nuisance by offering H1, H2, L1 and L2, which act as "signal bars". That's right, you need a signal before confirmation.

Brooks? No thank you, he is much too primitive for me.

 

[schizo]

Brooks? No thank you, he is much too primitive for me.

I ain't saying this is the only way. It was just one example among many that one could use as a signal bar. What's important (or what seem to have been implied as important by posters before me) is that one should not merely wait for "confirmation", which might or might not materialize. Utilizing signal bars in your trading will definitely remove such mystery.

 

[romik]

I don't have to compete with the big powerful players in the market because I'm riding along with them.

That's what we are all trying to do, the problem is getting onto a train to San Francisco, but it goes to Detroit instead

 

[learner2007]

That's what we are all trying to do, the problem is getting onto a train to San Francisco, but it goes to Detroit instead

Just make sure you double check your boarding pass before you get on. And keep your eyes on those guys in the First Class seats. Get off when they do. They won't ride to the end of the line. But if you do miss your stop, don't blame the conductor.