I haven't done the best with stocks over the years, but a few weeks back I threw $18,000 into AZUL, a Brazilian airline, when it was at $6.71 about 3 weeks back. I sold today because it's running into a huge $3 gap after already having run up 100%. I sold at $16.10. I saw it closed at $17.30 (18% more on my entry price) and the volume was twice the normal amount. Not sure if I should have stayed in and let it ride or if selling out in a stock that could continue is a normality in the trading world. I always hear to stick to your exit strategy no matter what. Thoughts?
It's so hard to say goodbye to a stock that's been running.
- Thread starter Bugsy
- Start date
Read somewhere, 80% percent of fund managers, told that their biggest mistake was - selling positions too fast.
(maybe the number is wrong, don't remember the source neither, and only now as of writing, the thought came, that it could be a fake data/study, for obvious reasons)
edited :
AZUL - gave a quick look to balance sheet,
- maybe a right choice after all and congratz on 100%.
(maybe the number is wrong, don't remember the source neither, and only now as of writing, the thought came, that it could be a fake data/study, for obvious reasons)
edited :
AZUL - gave a quick look to balance sheet,
- maybe a right choice after all and congratz on 100%.
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Made 140%
Though they tripled their share price in the 2 preceding years. I had made this plan about 2 weeks ago. With that huge gap that will be huge resistance, but I dunno, it's been on a huge run with a huge influx of new volume, and the entire airline industry has been on fire. I'd feel sick to see it move even higher, and not sure if I made a mistake and sold out if a stock on such a huge run.
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Fretting/regrets is for amateurs. Buy some call spreads. it would limit your upside but it would limit your downside. You could sleep at night as your loss is limited to your investment in the call spread.
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Here is a simple 200-day moving average on the AZUL chart.
Do you see AZUL dropping and closing below that average?
No?
Then don't sell yet, simple as that.
(For a more conservative exit you can also use a 100 or even a 50 day moving average).
Cordially.
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Good - something to work on & get better at psychology/perspective part.
e.g -
had no way to get extra funds for a new position (didn't wanted to go extreme, with dirty money etc)
thus - ignored one position at $32, while recently it reached $80 and i see it at $150~ by the end of the year/next spring.
Had some regret for few seconds, the told to myself, quietly inside the head, with little smile :
,,Just be grateful for the lesson & beside - you was right''
Damn. Saw just now.
I gave a look to this one :
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AZUL/azul-sa/balance-sheet?freq=A
and yahoo shows this :
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AZUL/balance-sheet?p=AZUL
(and the cash flow difference)
Ticker looks the same ,unless it's the latters afterwards that are different (S.A etc)Looks like they forgot the minus ,, - '' in the balance sheet.
(oh whatever, 2 am, probably got delusional, time to sleep,.. laughs,,, Or maybe another of those stories, where you find 10 yrs US TBills in USO holdings)
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That's on a 1 minute chart though. So that's a 200 minute Simple Moving Average. Far different than how the Day chart would look.Here is a simple 200-day moving average on the AZUL chart.
Do you see AZUL dropping and closing below that average?
No?
Then don't sell yet, simple as that.
(For a more conservative exit you can also use a 100 or even a 50 day moving average).
Cordially.
Not quite sure why this never occurred to me before. I guess I only thought of options like how many people play them now, like gambling, rather than as a hedge. I'd heard of hedging before, but it never quite clicked.
It’s really hard to say goodbye to the running stock since every broker has different spreads. Spreads get wider and then due to this trade execution is affected to a great extent. Therefore, it’s really important to keep your eye on your running stocks i.e. when to open a trade and when to close.
There is a best bid and best ask where your order is to be executed.